KR Reykjavik are the clear favourites in this League Cup clash, with the model assigning a 68 % chance to a home win and 17 % to a draw. The 15 % away win probability is the lowest, reflecting the home side’s stronger form and the opponent’s weaker away record. KR’s recent unbeaten run (WDWDW) and a 5-3 win over KA Akureyri underline their confidence, while Njardvik’s 4-0 victory over Völsungur shows they are coming off a win but still lack the edge at home.
The model expects 4.3 goals on average, with the most likely total being 6 + at 27 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1, with a 7.9 % probability. KR typically scores 2.62 and concedes 1.77 at home against similar opposition, whereas Njardvik averages 2.36 scored and 1.64 conceded away.
Suggested picks include Home over 0.5 goals (94.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.5 %), Over 1.5 (93.6 %), Home +2 handicap (93.4 %), Under 7.5 (92.6 %), Under 6.5 (85.2 %), Home or Draw (84.5 %), and Home +1 handicap (84.5 %). Each selection carries its own probability and is highlighted as a model choice.
Results analysis
KR Reykjavik’s unbeaten run continued as they thumped Njardvik 5-1, a result that matched the model’s favourite and probability of 68 %. The prediction of a home win proved correct, and the final score confirmed the expected outcome. The model’s selections performed strongly: Home over 0.5 goals hit at 94.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.5 %, Over 1.5 at 93.6 %, Home +2 handicap at 93.4 %, Under 7.5 at 92.6 %, Under 6.5 at 85.2 %, Home or Draw at 84.5 %, and Home +1 handicap also at 84.5 %. All eight picks settled in favour of the predicted result, underscoring the model’s accuracy for this League Cup clash.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
KR Reykjavik win✓ Hit
67.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Njardvik win✗ Miss
15.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KR Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
2.20
2.40
2.07
1.80
2.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
3.67
0.00
7.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.21
2.17
2.62
1.77
1.73
2.64
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Njardvik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.27
2.38
1.06
2.07
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
2.24
1.32
2.14
1.07
2.36
1.64
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.6%
Under 1.5
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
80.7%
Under 2.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.9%
Under 3.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.2%
No
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.9%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
6.0%
4-1
5.6%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
5.6%
3-0
5.5%
3-2
5.5%
KR Reykjavik goals ↓
Njardvik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.9%
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
1
3.3%
6.0%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
2
5.6%
7.9%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
3
5.5%
7.7%
5.5%
2.6%
0.9%
4
4.0%
5.6%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KR Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Njardvik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
KR Reykjavik is 1.70 points better than Njardvik in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
KR Reykjavik is 2.67 goals better than Njardvik in terms of goals scored per game (3.67 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
KR Reykjavik is 0.47 goals better than Njardvik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KR Reykjavik or Draw✓ Hit
84.5%
Avg Implied -
68%
17%
15%
covers KR Reykjavik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik or Njardvik✓ Hit
83.3%
Avg Implied -
68%
17%
15%
covers KR Reykjavik + Njardvik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Njardvik✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
68%
17%
15%
covers Draw + Njardvik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.6%
Under
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
33.5%
Under
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to KR Reykjavik, so a minus line means KR Reykjavik give that many goals of a start and Njardvik receive them. At -1, KR Reykjavik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KR Reykjavik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KR Reykjavik)Actual: KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik -2
30.3%
Draw -2
18.6%
Njardvik +2
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (KR Reykjavik)Actual: KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik -1
48.9%
Draw -1
18.9%
Njardvik +1
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (KR Reykjavik)Actual: KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik +1
84.5%
Draw +1
8.9%
Njardvik -1
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (KR Reykjavik)Actual: KR Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik +2
93.4%
Draw +2
4.3%
Njardvik -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KR Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.00
0.87
1.07
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.92
1.00
0.85
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Njardvik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.40
1.06
0.38
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.48
0.93
0.43
1.00
0.55
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KR Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.20
1.53
1.00
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.25
1.62
0.92
0.91
1.64
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Njardvik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.87
1.31
0.69
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
0.84
1.21
0.64
1.36
1.09
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home over 0.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →