Pythia gives KRC Genk II a 37% win probability against KAA Gent II in the Belgium: Challenger Pro League on 2026-04-17, with 26% for the draw and 37% for KAA Gent II. The model estimates around 3.1 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (23%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (91%), Over 21.5 fouls (83%), Over 1.5 (82%), Under 5.5 cards (79%).
Results analysis
KRC Genk II finished 1-1 against KAA Gent II (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 37% home win, 26% draw and 37% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (82%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
KRC Genk II win✗ Miss
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II win✗ Miss
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KRC Genk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.90
1.33
1.80
1.40
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.50
0.67
0.67
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.40
2.05
1.50
2.10
1.30
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.75
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (KAA Gent II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAA Gent II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.63
1.25
1.62
1.21
1.64
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.78
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.91
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.20
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (KRC Genk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.6%
Under 2.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.2%
Under 3.5
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.0%
1-0
5.9%
0-0
5.6%
0-2
5.5%
KRC Genk II goals ↓
KAA Gent II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
6.0%
5.5%
2.8%
1.1%
1
5.9%
12%
8.4%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.4%
8.4%
6.5%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.8%
4.3%
3.3%
1.7%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KRC Genk II goals (down), columns = KAA Gent II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SK Beveren
2.75
Kortrijk
2.06
Beerschot VA
2.00
Liège
1.66
Lommel United
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
RWDM
1.12
Francs Borains
1.09
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
KRC Genk II
0.97
Club Brugge II
0.66
Olympic Charleroi
0.50
KRC Genk II is 0.31 points worse than KAA Gent II in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SK Beveren
2.31
Lommel United
1.84
Kortrijk
1.81
Beerschot VA
1.62
RWDM
1.56
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Liège
1.38
Patro Eisden
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KAA Gent II
1.31
KRC Genk II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Francs Borains
1.03
Club Brugge II
1.03
Olympic Charleroi
0.81
KRC Genk II and KAA Gent II are level in goals scored per game (both 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Beveren
0.72
Beerschot VA
0.97
Kortrijk
1.06
AS Eupen
1.12
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Lommel United
1.44
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
RWDM
1.69
Club Brugge II
1.72
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Olympic Charleroi
2.12
KRC Genk II is 0.25 goals worse than KAA Gent II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.84 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
SK Beveren
56%
Lommel United
55%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Kortrijk
53%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
Olympic Charleroi
48%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
RWDM
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
KRC Genk II is 5.4 percentage points worse than KAA Gent II in terms of average possession (52% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
KRC Genk II
For 5.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KAA Gent II
For 4.2 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KRC Genk II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.8
9.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
24.7
24.7
24.8
vs Stronger (9)
11.3
12.0
11.0
2.6
3.3
2.2
22.5
27.0
20.2
vs Similar (36)
9.4
10.5
8.3
2.9
2.7
3.1
25.5
25.1
25.9
vs Weaker (5)
11.8
12.0
11.5
3.2
3.0
3.5
22.5
19.5
25.5
% over line
67%
78%
57%
46%
46%
46%
67%
67%
67%
% under line
33%
22%
43%
54%
54%
54%
33%
33%
33%
This opponent (KAA Gent II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAA Gent II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
9.5
9.0
10.0
2.9
3.1
2.8
26.3
25.7
26.9
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
10.0
-
5.5
4.0
7.0
30.5
24.0
37.0
vs Similar (23)
9.3
8.1
10.3
2.6
2.8
2.5
26.4
26.9
25.9
vs Weaker (6)
10.0
11.0
8.5
3.3
4.0
2.7
24.4
23.0
26.5
% over line
48%
42%
55%
45%
44%
47%
79%
92%
67%
% under line
52%
58%
45%
55%
56%
53%
21%
8%
33%
This opponent (KRC Genk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.6
Kortrijk
10.2
KRC Genk II
10.2
Beerschot VA
10.2
SK Beveren
9.9
RSC Anderlecht II
9.8
Francs Borains
9.7
RWDM
9.7
Olympic Charleroi
9.7
Club Brugge II
9.5
AS Eupen
9.5
KAA Gent II
9.5
Lommel United
9.1
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
Patro Eisden
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
Liège
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
SK Beveren
4.6
RSC Anderlecht II
4.6
Kortrijk
4.5
RWDM
4.5
Club Brugge II
4.3
Lommel United
4.1
Olympic Charleroi
4.0
KAA Gent II
4.0
KRC Genk II
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.3
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.5
Club Brugge II
26.9
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.3
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
25.2
RWDM
24.8
Lommel United
24.8
Olympic Charleroi
24.4
SK Beveren
24.0
Beerschot VA
23.7
Kortrijk
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.6%
Under 9.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.8%
Under 3.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.6%
Under 21.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KRC Genk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.80
1.00
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.60
1.10
0.80
1.20
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (KAA Gent II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAA Gent II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.78
0.58
0.67
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (KRC Genk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KRC Genk II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KRC Genk II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KRC Genk II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KRC Genk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.53
0.80
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.95
0.70
0.90
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (KAA Gent II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAA Gent II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.62
1.00
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
1.00
0.42
1.00
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (KRC Genk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KRC Genk II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KRC Genk II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KRC Genk II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →