This matchup between KRC Genk II and Liège in the Belgium Challenger Pro League is finely balanced, with the home side coming off a defeat against AS Eupen and the away side recovering from two straight defeats. The model predicts a home win, with a 39% chance of KRC Genk II taking the three points, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 33% chance of Liège securing the win. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% probability.
At home, KRC Genk II has scored an average of 0.67 goals and conceded 1.67 goals against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Liège has scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1.8 goals away against weaker opponents. The model's selection for the match is a home win, with suggested picks including Over 21.5 fouls (78.7%), Over 1.5 (78.6%), Home or Away (73.7%), and Draw or Away (73.6%). The home win percentage is 39%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
Results analysis
The upset came as KRC Genk II, on a run of two straight defeats, fell to Liège, who were coming off a win. The final score was 2-3, an away victory that left the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win call at 41%, wrong. The model’s selection was not correct. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit, Under 6.5 hit, Home under 3.5 goals hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit, and Under 5.5 hit. Each hit carried a probability of 99.0%, 98.4%, 97.7%, 97.3%, 97.2%, 96.5%, 95.7%, and 92.7% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
KRC Genk II win✗ Miss
40.8%
Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.81
Edge
+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.97
Dafabet
2.95
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.83
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.42
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.54
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Liège win✓ Hit
32.0%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.23
Edge
-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.32
Dafabet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Unibet
2.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KRC Genk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.03
1.40
1.87
1.33
2.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.26
2.00
1.29
1.71
1.23
2.31
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.33
3.00
4.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.40
1.69
1.25
0.93
1.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.42
1.79
1.29
0.83
1.58
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (KRC Genk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
@ 1.20+1.4%
Under 1.5
21.1%
@ 4.13-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.42
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
4.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.66-1.7%
Under 2.5
45.7%
@ 2.12+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.0%
@ 2.61-3.4%
Under 3.5
68.0%
@ 1.43+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.67
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.7%
@ 1.55-0.9%
No
41.3%
@ 2.29+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
No
1xBet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.17+5.8%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.17+4.2%
1-2
7.8%@ 8.11+2.4%
1-0
7.6%@ 10.11+3.3%
0-0
6.9%@ 11.78+3.3%
2-0
6.7%@ 14.20+3.7%
0-1
6.5%@ 8.73+1.5%
2-2
5.9%@ 10.57+1.8%
KRC Genk II goals ↓
Liège goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.5%
5.1%
2.3%
0.7%
1
7.6%
13%
7.8%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.7%
8.9%
5.9%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.4%
4.5%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KRC Genk II goals (down), columns = Liège goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beerschot VA
2.00
Dender
1.77
Liège
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
Francs Borains
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
1.01
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
KRC Genk II
0.97
Excelsior Virton
0.95
Club Brugge II
0.66
KRC Genk II is 0.69 points worse than Liège in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.66).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dender
1.82
Beerschot VA
1.62
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Patro Eisden
1.38
Liège
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KAA Gent II
1.31
KRC Genk II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
1.04
Club Brugge II
1.03
Francs Borains
1.03
Excelsior Virton
0.97
KRC Genk II is 0.06 goals worse than Liège in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beerschot VA
0.97
Dender
1.09
AS Eupen
1.12
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
Club Brugge II
1.72
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Sporting Hasselt
1.92
Excelsior Virton
2.05
KRC Genk II is 0.62 goals worse than Liège in terms of goals conceded per game (1.84 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
KRC Genk II is 7.2 percentage points better than Liège in terms of average possession (52% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
KRC Genk II
For 5.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liège
For 4.9 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.4 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KRC Genk II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.0
9.4
2.7
2.8
2.7
24.6
24.9
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
10.0
10.9
9.2
2.6
2.7
2.6
24.8
25.6
24.2
vs Weaker (5)
11.8
12.0
11.5
3.2
3.0
3.5
22.5
19.5
25.5
% over line
70%
82%
60%
44%
46%
42%
68%
71%
65%
% under line
30%
18%
40%
56%
54%
58%
32%
29%
35%
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.3
10.3
3.1
3.1
3.0
24.4
25.2
23.7
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.2
9.9
10.5
3.2
3.3
3.2
24.1
25.3
23.1
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
13.5
6.0
2.0
2.3
1.5
27.7
24.0
35.0
% over line
49%
44%
53%
48%
52%
43%
65%
67%
63%
% under line
51%
56%
47%
52%
48%
57%
35%
33%
37%
This opponent (KRC Genk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.5
Beerschot VA
10.3
KRC Genk II
10.2
Francs Borains
9.7
RSC Anderlecht II
9.7
Dender
9.6
Club Brugge II
9.5
AS Eupen
9.5
KAA Gent II
9.5
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
Excelsior Virton
9.0
Patro Eisden
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
Liège
4.6
RSC Anderlecht II
4.5
Club Brugge II
4.3
KAA Gent II
4.0
KRC Genk II
3.7
Dender
3.4
Excelsior Virton
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.2
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.2
Club Brugge II
26.9
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.3
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
24.8
Beerschot VA
24.3
Dender
21.2
Excelsior Virton
13.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.2%
@ 1.67-3.3%
Under 9.5
47.8%
@ 2.08+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
1.84
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.1%
Under 3.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.0%
Under 21.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KRC Genk II or Draw✗ Miss
52.7%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.56
Edge
-6.5%
41%
27%
32%
covers KRC Genk II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.53
KRC Genk II or Liège✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.25
Edge
+0.2%
41%
27%
32%
covers KRC Genk II + Liège
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Liège✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied 67.4% · @ 1.37
Edge
+6.3%
41%
27%
32%
covers Draw + Liège
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KRC Genk II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.1%
@ 1.26-3.3%
Under
29.9%
@ 3.49+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.70
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.48
KRC Genk II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.0%
@ 2.28-6.6%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.56+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
KRC Genk II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 5.07-5.9%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.13+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.10
KRC Genk II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 12.12-4.4%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Liège over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.4%
@ 1.19+3.9%
Under
18.6%
@ 4.11-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Betano
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Liège over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.1%
@ 2.00+3.7%
Under
49.9%
@ 1.74-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Liège over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
23.8%
@ 4.12+1.4%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.19-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.21
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.17
Liège over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 9.50-0.8%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.04+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.70
Betfair
9.50
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to KRC Genk II, so a minus line means KRC Genk II give that many goals of a start and Liège receive them. At -1, KRC Genk II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KRC Genk II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KRC Genk II)Actual: Liège
KRC Genk II -2
3.6%
@ 12.25-3.8%
Draw -2
7.6%
@ 8.00-3.7%
Liège +2
88.8%
@ 1.11+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.50
Away
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Handicap -1 (KRC Genk II)Actual: Liège
KRC Genk II -1
11.2%
@ 5.67-4.4%
Draw -1
15.2%
@ 4.58-4.2%
Liège +1
73.7%
@ 1.36+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
Unibet
5.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Unibet
4.40
Away
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Handicap +1 (KRC Genk II)Actual: Draw
KRC Genk II +1
52.7%
@ 1.56-4.6%
Draw +1
21.5%
@ 4.11-0.2%
Liège -1
25.8%
@ 4.24+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Unibet
3.85
Away
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Handicap +2 (KRC Genk II)Actual: KRC Genk II
KRC Genk II +2
74.2%
@ 1.17-2.0%
Draw +2
14.7%
@ 6.40+0.8%
Liège -2
11.1%
@ 9.12+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KRC Genk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.80
1.00
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.46
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.62
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.77
1.00
0.71
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (KRC Genk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.5%
@ 1.30-3.7%
Under 0.5
32.5%
@ 3.21+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.8%
@ 2.44-5.2%
Under 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.50+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
William Hil
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 5.63-6.3%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.11+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KRC Genk II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.6%
@ 2.02-3.4%
Under
57.4%
@ 1.72+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
KRC Genk II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 6.38-4.0%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.08+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.45
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
KRC Genk II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 10.75-7.0%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Liège over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.6%
@ 1.84-2.5%
Under
52.4%
@ 1.85+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Unibet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Liège over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.3%
@ 5.28-4.1%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.11+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Liège over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 10.00-6.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KRC Genk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.10
0.60
0.87
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.67
1.00
0.57
0.71
0.77
1.31
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.69
0.62
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.65
0.79
0.57
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (KRC Genk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.5%
@ 1.17-2.1%
Under 0.5
23.5%
@ 4.31+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.3%
@ 1.86-7.2%
Under 1.5
57.7%
@ 1.83+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.1%
@ 3.67-8.0%
Under 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.23+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.70
1xBet
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KRC Genk II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.0%
@ 1.71-3.0%
Under
49.0%
@ 2.00+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
KRC Genk II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 4.40-5.7%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.16+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
KRC Genk II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 9.00-7.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Liège over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.2%
@ 1.58-5.3%
Under
46.8%
@ 2.23+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Liège over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.2%
@ 3.75-7.3%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.22+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Liège over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 7.90-7.4%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.05+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.05
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.11
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
-
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.10
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.11
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.14
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.20
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.4%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.9%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
76.2%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.17
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
74.2%
1.17
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
-
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.7%
1.25
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
73.7%
1.37
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
73.7%
1.36
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
-
-
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
1.42
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.33
-
+6.5%
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.1%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Betfair
1.25
-3.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
KRC Genk II · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aaron Bibout56%
Luca Oyen33%
Victory Beniangba29%
Adrian Palacios25%
Jonathan Coenen21%
Ayumu Yokoyama20%
Jelle Driessen11%
Kenan Haroun7%
Ali Camara7%
Djoully Nzoko6%
August De Wannemacker6%
Emmanuel Sarfo6%
Kayden Pierre0%
Kenshin Yasuda0%
Brad Manguelle0%
Michiel Cauwel0%
Wilson Da Costa0%
Christian Akpan0%
Min-woo Kang0%
Kim Myeong-jun0%
Yumeki Yoshinaga0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
Eddien Lazar0%
Manu Mocsnik0%
Alpha Barry0%
Elie Mbavu0%
Myung-jun Kim0%
Zion Henry0%
Wout Kapers0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Akpan43%
Kayden Pierre35%
Zion Henry33%
Wout Kapers29%
Alpha Barry20%
Kenshin Yasuda18%
Manu Mocsnik14%
Kenan Haroun13%
Michiel Cauwel12%
Emmanuel Sarfo11%
Jelle Driessen11%
Brad Manguelle8%
Jonathan Coenen7%
Ali Camara7%
Lucca Brughmans6%
August De Wannemacker6%
Victory Beniangba6%
Luca Oyen0%
Ayumu Yokoyama0%
Djoully Nzoko0%
Adrian Palacios0%
Wilson Da Costa0%
Aaron Bibout0%
Min-woo Kang0%
Kim Myeong-jun0%
Yumeki Yoshinaga0%
Eddien Lazar0%
Elie Mbavu0%
Myung-jun Kim0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ayumu Yokoyama40%
August De Wannemacker19%
Christian Akpan14%
Kenan Haroun13%
Kim Myeong-jun12%
Luca Oyen11%
Kenshin Yasuda9%
Elie Mbavu8%
Ali Camara7%
Djoully Nzoko6%
Victory Beniangba6%
Emmanuel Sarfo6%
Kayden Pierre5%
Adrian Palacios0%
Brad Manguelle0%
Michiel Cauwel0%
Wilson Da Costa0%
Aaron Bibout0%
Min-woo Kang0%
Yumeki Yoshinaga0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
Eddien Lazar0%
Manu Mocsnik0%
Alpha Barry0%
Myung-jun Kim0%
Jonathan Coenen0%
Jelle Driessen0%
Zion Henry0%
Wout Kapers0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ayumu Yokoyama60%
Aaron Bibout22%
Djoully Nzoko12%
Kim Myeong-jun12%
Kenshin Yasuda9%
Manu Mocsnik7%
Kenan Haroun7%
Ali Camara7%
Victory Beniangba6%
Luca Oyen0%
Kayden Pierre0%
Adrian Palacios0%
Brad Manguelle0%
Michiel Cauwel0%
Wilson Da Costa0%
Christian Akpan0%
Min-woo Kang0%
Yumeki Yoshinaga0%
Lucca Brughmans0%
Eddien Lazar0%
Alpha Barry0%
Elie Mbavu0%
August De Wannemacker0%
Emmanuel Sarfo0%
Myung-jun Kim0%
Jonathan Coenen0%
Jelle Driessen0%
Zion Henry0%
Wout Kapers0%
Liège · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Frederic Soelle Soelle33%
Simon Paulet25%
Oumar Diouf20%
Kylian Hazard17%
Alexis Lefebvre14%
Alexis De Sart12%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa8%
Kays Ruiz-Atil8%
Lucca Lucker7%
Kevin Shkurti7%
Jonathan D'Ostilio6%
Abian Arslan6%
Damien Mouchamps6%
Benoit Bruggeman5%
Reno Wilmots0%
Victor Corneillie0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Eric N'jo0%
Stephen Reynaerts0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordan Bustin45%
Oumar Diouf30%
Reno Wilmots26%
Jonathan D'Ostilio25%
Stephen Reynaerts25%
Kevin Shkurti21%
Alexis Lefebvre19%
Kays Ruiz-Atil15%
Victor Corneillie14%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa8%
Simon Paulet8%
Martin Wasinski8%
Abian Arslan6%
Alexis De Sart6%
Damien Mouchamps6%
Kylian Hazard0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Benoit Bruggeman0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Eric N'jo0%
Frederic Soelle Soelle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Wasinski21%
Benoit Bruggeman15%
Eric N'jo14%
Jonathan D'Ostilio12%
Kylian Hazard11%
Oumar Diouf10%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa8%
Simon Paulet8%
Kays Ruiz-Atil8%
Alexis De Sart6%
Reno Wilmots4%
Damien Mouchamps0%
Victor Corneillie0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Abian Arslan0%
Frederic Soelle Soelle0%
Stephen Reynaerts0%
Kevin Shkurti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Frederic Soelle Soelle22%
Oumar Diouf20%
Kylian Hazard17%
Kays Ruiz-Atil15%
Benoit Bruggeman15%
Alexis Lefebvre10%
Reno Wilmots9%
Simon Paulet8%
Alexis De Sart0%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa0%
Damien Mouchamps0%
Victor Corneillie0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jonathan D'Ostilio0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Abian Arslan0%
Eric N'jo0%
Stephen Reynaerts0%
Kevin Shkurti0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Beerschot VA
Excelsior Virton
Club Brugge II
Dender
Lokeren-Temse
Francs Borains
Sporting Hasselt
K. Lierse S.K.
AS Eupen
Patro Eisden
KAA Gent II
Seraing United
RSC Anderlecht II