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Krka vs Beltinci Result & Analysis

Date: 29/09/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
Krka
Krka
Vs
26%
26%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Beltinci
Beltinci
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Krka face Beltinci in a match tipped for an away victory, with the model favouring a 0-2 result. The odds lean heavily toward a 49% chance of a Beltinci win, 26% for a Krka win and 26% for a draw. The average goal output is expected to be three, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.9% chance, reflecting the evenly matched defensive records: Krka scores 1.4 and concedes 1.3 at home against similar opposition, while Beltinci nets 1.71 and concedes only 1.14 on the road. Recent form shows Krka stumbling after three straight defeats, whereas Beltinci come off a loss but have two wins in their last five. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 81.3%.

Results analysis

The latest clash in the Slovenia 2. SNL saw Beltinci extend their winning streak, ending a brief dip after a defeat. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved accurate as Beltinci triumphed 0-2. The pre-match pick carried a 49% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The single suggested selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 81.3% chance, matching the 2-goal total. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the final 0-2 result confirmed the away side’s dominance. Overall, the model’s predictions largely materialised, delivering a reliable forecast for this encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Krka win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Beltinci win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KrkaKrka

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D24L10W12L01L11D12L11D23L20WH·ALU19/05A·NAF28/07A·TRI12/08H·BIS20/08H·DEK29/08A·ILI03/09H·GOR08/09A·FUŽ16/09H·PRI20/09A·TAB23/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.231.361.431.311.06
vs Stronger (10)1.501.301.251.751.671.00
vs Similar (20)1.251.201.401.301.101.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BeltinciBeltinci

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-533D11D31W12L21W51W10W11D30W30WH·BIS20/05H·PRI30/07H·TOL12/08A·BRI19/08H·BIL03/09A·TAB06/09A·RUD09/09H·NAF15/09A·DEK21/09H·DRA24/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.271.801.401.731.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.741.301.771.461.711.14
vs Weaker (3)2.001.002.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-2
9.6%
0-2 ✓
7.8%
0-1
7.7%
2-1
6.7%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
1-3
5.7%
Krka goals ↓
Beltinci goals →
01234
06.0%7.7%7.8%4.6%2.0%
15.0%12%9.6%5.7%2.5%
23.8%6.7%5.9%3.5%1.5%
31.6%2.8%2.4%1.4%0.6%
40.5%0.9%0.8%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krka goals (down), columns = Beltinci goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Krka is 0.77 points worse than Beltinci in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.87).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Krka is 0.30 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.63).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Krka is 0.83 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KrkaKrka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L00D01L00D01L00D01L10W10WH·ALU19/05A·NAF28/07A·TRI12/08H·BIS20/08H·DEK29/08A·ILI03/09H·GOR08/09A·FUŽ16/09H·PRI20/09A·TAB23/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.370.710.430.560.31
vs Stronger (10)0.800.500.751.000.830.17
vs Similar (20)0.550.300.700.200.400.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BeltinciBeltinci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D11D20W02L20W30W10W01L20W10WH·BIS20/05H·PRI30/07H·TOL12/08A·BRI19/08H·BIL03/09A·TAB06/09A·RUD09/09H·NAF15/09A·DEK21/09H·DRA24/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.500.930.671.070.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.930.520.850.691.000.36
vs Weaker (3)1.670.331.500.502.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KrkaKrka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L23L10W11D01L10W12L10W13L10WH·ALU19/05A·NAF28/07A·TRI12/08H·BIS20/08H·DEK29/08A·ILI03/09H·GOR08/09A·FUŽ16/09H·PRI20/09A·TAB23/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.870.641.000.750.75
vs Stronger (10)0.700.800.500.750.830.83
vs Similar (20)0.700.900.701.100.700.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BeltinciBeltinci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D10W01L21W00D10W10W20WH·BIS20/05H·PRI30/07H·TOL12/08A·BRI19/08H·BIL03/09A·TAB06/09A·RUD09/09H·NAF15/09A·DEK21/09H·DRA24/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.770.870.730.670.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.810.780.920.770.710.79
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
Krka and Beltinci have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Krka and Beltinci have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Krka and Beltinci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Krka and Beltinci have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
KRK wins
1
Draws
0
BEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Krka vs Beltinci · H/A from KRK
DateH/AGameScore
17/03/23HKRK Vs Beltinci0-0
03/09/22ABeltinci Vs KRK0-1

KrkaKrka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23ATabor Sežana Vs KRK0-2
20/09/23HKRK Vs Primorje2-3
16/09/23AFužinar Vs KRK1-1
08/09/23HKRK Vs Gorica1-2
03/09/23AIlirija Vs KRK1-1
29/08/23HKRK Vs Dekani0-1
20/08/23HKRK Vs Bistrica1-2
12/08/23ATriglav Vs KRK0-1
28/07/23ANafta Vs KRK4-2
19/05/23HKRK Vs Aluminij2-2

BeltinciBeltinci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/23HBEL Vs Dravinja3-0
21/09/23ADekani Vs BEL0-3
15/09/23HBEL Vs Nafta1-1
09/09/23ARudar Vs BEL0-1
06/09/23ATabor Sežana Vs BEL1-5
03/09/23HBEL Vs Bilje2-1
19/08/23ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs BEL2-1
12/08/23HBEL Vs Tolmin3-1
30/07/23HBEL Vs Primorje1-1
20/05/23HBEL Vs Bistrica3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Krka
Krka
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLW1.56
HomeDLLLL1.63
AwayLWDDW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%47%35%
AVG goals2.542.742.35
Over 1.5 %72%74%70%
Over 2.5 %46%58%35%
Over 3.5 %31%32%30%
Scored1.461.581.35
Conceded1.081.161.00
BTTS56%58%55%
Clean Sheet33%32%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Beltinci
Beltinci
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.64
HomeDWWDW1.65
AwayWLWWW1.63
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%45%47%
AVG goals3.053.103.00
Over 1.5 %90%95%84%
Over 2.5 %62%55%68%
Over 3.5 %28%25%32%
Scored1.721.751.68
Conceded1.331.351.32
BTTS64%65%63%
Clean Sheet23%20%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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