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Krka vs Ilirija Result & Analysis

Date: 15/03/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
Krka
Krka
Vs
37%
28%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Krka win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilirija win✗ Miss
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KrkaKrka

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W00D20W03L45L12L23L21W31W03LA·TOL08/10H·BRI15/10A·BIL20/10A·DRA25/10H·RUD29/10H·NAF05/11A·DEK11/11H·DRA17/11H·TRI01/03A·BIS09/03
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.571.471.671.271.47
vs Stronger (8)1.251.501.401.401.001.67
vs Similar (22)1.411.591.501.801.331.42
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W00D23L40W03L02L12L21W00D13LA·TAB08/10H·BEL15/10A·TOL21/10H·BRI29/10H·BIL06/11A·NAF09/11A·RUD12/11H·NAF18/11A·DEK02/03H·DRA10/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.471.401.401.131.53
vs Stronger (5)1.201.402.001.670.001.00
vs Similar (25)1.281.481.251.331.311.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.1%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
7.3%
2-0
6.1%
0-2
5.8%
Krka goals ↓
Ilirija goals →
01234
07.3%7.3%5.8%2.7%0.9%
17.5%13%8.2%3.8%1.3%
26.1%8.4%5.8%2.7%0.9%
32.9%4.0%2.7%1.3%0.4%
41.0%1.4%1.0%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krka goals (down), columns = Ilirija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Krka is 0.10 points better than Ilirija in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Krka is 0.30 goals better than Ilirija in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Krka is 0.17 goals worse than Ilirija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KrkaKrka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D20W01L12L02L01L10W10W01LA·TOL08/10H·BRI15/10A·BIL20/10A·DRA25/10H·RUD29/10H·NAF05/11A·DEK11/11H·DRA17/11H·TRI01/03A·BIS09/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.530.670.530.400.53
vs Stronger (8)0.380.500.600.600.000.33
vs Similar (22)0.590.550.700.500.500.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D22D20W03L00D02L10W00D11DA·TAB08/10H·BEL15/10A·TOL21/10H·BRI29/10H·BIL06/11A·NAF09/11A·RUD12/11H·NAF18/11A·DEK02/03H·DRA10/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.870.530.530.93
vs Stronger (5)0.600.201.000.330.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.720.840.830.580.621.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KrkaKrka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D00D02L33D10W22D11D21W02LA·TOL08/10H·BRI15/10A·BIL20/10A·DRA25/10H·RUD29/10H·NAF05/11A·DEK11/11H·DRA17/11H·TRI01/03A·BIS09/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.030.801.130.870.93
vs Stronger (8)0.881.000.800.801.001.33
vs Similar (22)0.821.050.801.300.830.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L20W00D02L10W11D00D02LA·TAB08/10H·BEL15/10A·TOL21/10H·BRI29/10H·BIL06/11A·NAF09/11A·RUD12/11H·NAF18/11A·DEK02/03H·DRA10/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.530.870.600.60
vs Stronger (5)0.601.201.001.330.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.560.640.420.750.690.54
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
Krka and Ilirija have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Krka and Ilirija have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Krka and Ilirija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Krka and Ilirija have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
KRK wins
1
Draws
1
ILI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Krka vs Ilirija · H/A from KRK
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23AIlirija Vs KRK1-1
04/05/23HKRK Vs Ilirija3-2
23/10/22AIlirija Vs KRK2-0

KrkaKrka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/24ABistrica Vs KRK3-0
01/03/24HKRK Vs Triglav3-1
17/11/23HKRK Vs Dravinja2-1
11/11/23ADekani Vs KRK3-2
05/11/23HKRK Vs Nafta1-2
29/10/23HKRK Vs Rudar4-5
25/10/23ADravinja Vs KRK3-0
20/10/23ABilje Vs KRK0-2
15/10/23HKRK Vs Brinje-Grosuplje0-0
08/10/23ATolmin Vs KRK1-3

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/24HILI Vs Dravinja1-3
02/03/24ADekani Vs ILI0-0
18/11/23HILI Vs Nafta2-1
12/11/23ARudar Vs ILI2-1
09/11/23ANafta Vs ILI2-0
06/11/23HILI Vs Bilje0-3
29/10/23HILI Vs Brinje-Grosuplje4-0
21/10/23ATolmin Vs ILI3-2
15/10/23HILI Vs Beltinci0-0
08/10/23ATabor Sežana Vs ILI0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Krka
Krka
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.48
HomeDLLWW1.52
AwayWWLLL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.742.922.56
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %52%60%44%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.481.601.36
Conceded1.261.321.20
BTTS56%60%52%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.44
HomeDWLWL1.60
AwayWLLLD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.642.722.56
Over 1.5 %72%76%68%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.481.561.40
Conceded1.161.161.16
BTTS40%48%32%
Clean Sheet42%40%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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