Krka are tipped to win this home fixture against Jesenice, with a 42% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of an away win. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13% chance.
At home, Krka average three goals scored and two conceded against weaker opposition, while Jesenice, playing away against stronger teams, average 0.73 goals scored and 2.53 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.5%), and Under 5.5 (93.4%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a win probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Krka win
42.2%
Avg Implied 46.2% · @ 1.97
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.97
Betano
1.93
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.54
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Jesenice win
30.4%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.23
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
Betano
3.45
1xBet
3.21
Marathonbet
3.15
Betfair
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Krka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
0.93
1.80
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.86
0.50
2.50
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.71
0.90
1.50
1.09
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jesenice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.27
1.00
2.00
0.73
2.53
vs Stronger (28)
0.86
2.39
1.00
2.23
0.73
2.53
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.2%
@ 1.21+3.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
@ 3.61-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Under
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.72
Betano
3.40
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.2%
@ 1.71-0.7%
Under 2.5
46.8%
@ 2.00+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.67
Under
Bet365
2.05
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.0%
@ 2.66-3.1%
Under 3.5
69.0%
@ 1.37+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.70
1xBet
2.70
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Both teams to score
Yes
57.6%
@ 1.60+0.9%
No
42.4%
@ 2.10-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
No
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Betano
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.83+6.8%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.33+4.0%
1-0
8.1%@ 8.17+2.9%
1-2
7.5%@ 10.67+3.6%
0-0
7.2%@ 11.67+3.6%
2-0
7.1%@ 9.67+2.8%
0-1
6.5%@ 10.50+2.5%
2-2
5.8%@ 12.33+2.4%
Krka goals ↓
Jesenice goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
6.5%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.5%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.0%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.6%
4.6%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krka goals (down), columns = Jesenice goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Krka is 0.37 points better than Jesenice in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Krka is 0.20 goals better than Jesenice in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 0.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Krka is 0.57 goals better than Jesenice in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 2.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Krka or Draw
69.6%
Avg Implied 71.9% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.3%
42%
27%
30%
covers Krka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Krka or Jesenice
72.6%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.23
Edge
-1.8%
42%
27%
30%
covers Krka + Jesenice
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Draw or Jesenice
57.8%
Avg Implied 53.6% · @ 1.71
Edge
+4.1%
42%
27%
30%
covers Draw + Jesenice
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.83
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Krka over/under 0.5
Over
78.4%
@ 1.16-0.3%
Under
21.6%
@ 4.30+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.16
Under
1xBet
4.30
Krka over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
@ 1.88-3.8%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.82+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Krka over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
@ 3.90-3.6%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.20+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.90
Under
1xBet
1.20
Krka over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
@ 9.20-3.0%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Under
1xBet
1.02
Jesenice over/under 0.5
Over
72.0%
@ 1.31+2.6%
Under
28.0%
@ 2.97-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.31
Under
1xBet
2.97
Jesenice over/under 1.5
Over
36.3%
@ 2.60+1.1%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.42-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Marathonbet
2.57
1xBet
2.57
Under
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Jesenice over/under 2.5
Over
13.7%
@ 6.20-1.2%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.08+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.20
Under
1xBet
1.08
Jesenice over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Krka, so a minus line means Krka give that many goals of a start and Jesenice receive them. At -1, Krka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Krka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Krka)
Krka -2
8.6%
Draw -2
13.0%
Jesenice +2
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Krka)
Krka -1
21.6%
@ 3.62-2.4%
Draw -1
20.6%
@ 3.67-3.1%
Jesenice +1
57.8%
@ 1.67+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
Away
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Handicap +1 (Krka)
Krka +1
69.6%
@ 1.26+1.3%
Draw +1
16.9%
@ 4.70-1.4%
Jesenice -1
13.5%
@ 6.40+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Marathonbet
6.40
Handicap +2 (Krka)
Krka +2
86.5%
Draw +2
9.0%
Jesenice -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Krka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.57
0.60
0.70
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jesenice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (28)
0.36
0.86
0.31
0.85
0.40
0.87
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.4%
@ 1.30-1.3%
Under 0.5
30.6%
@ 3.13+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.1%
@ 2.48-4.7%
Under 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.44+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.47
1xBet
2.47
Betano
2.42
Under
Betfair
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 6.00-4.0%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.09+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.50
Under
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.7%
@ 1.79+0.2%
Under
48.3%
@ 1.91-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Krka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.4%
@ 5.00-2.1%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.13+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Under
1xBet
1.13
Krka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.1%
@ 2.22-2.7%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.59+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.14
Under
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.55
Jesenice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.2%
@ 7.00-3.8%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.05+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Under
1xBet
1.05
Jesenice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Krka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.07
0.33
1.00
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.00
1.75
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.33
1.14
0.30
0.80
0.36
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jesenice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.47
0.60
1.27
0.33
1.67
vs Stronger (28)
0.50
1.54
0.69
1.38
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.0%
@ 1.18+0.6%
Under 0.5
21.0%
@ 4.30-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.5%
@ 1.92-3.4%
Under 1.5
55.5%
@ 1.77+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
@ 3.70-6.6%
Under 2.5
81.8%
@ 1.22+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.9%
@ 1.57-0.1%
Under
41.1%
@ 2.26+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.26
Krka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.8%
@ 3.70-4.0%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.22+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.22
Krka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.4%
@ 1.83-5.1%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.87+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.87
Jesenice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
@ 5.20-5.8%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.11+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Under
1xBet
1.11
Jesenice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.09
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-
+4.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Home +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.3%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
Under 4.5
84.7%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
80.0%
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+0.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
78.4%
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
-
-0.3%
Away +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.2%
1.21
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
+3.2%
Home or Away
72.6%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-1.8%
Away over 0.5 goals
72.0%
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Krka and Jesenice have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Krka and Jesenice have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Krka and Jesenice have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Krka and Jesenice have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →