Krško’s recent loss to Tabor Sežana and Bilje’s 1-4 defeat to Bistrica set the stage for an uneven encounter, with the model favouring an away win. The odds show a 42% chance for Bilje, 32% for Krško and 26% for a draw, and the most likely outcome is a 1-1 tie, which the model assigns a 11.7% probability. The expected total is 3.1 goals, yet the single most probable total is two goals, with a 23% chance. Krško, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Bilje, on the road, scores 0.78 and concedes 1.67 against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.9%), Under 5.5 (90.3%), Away +2 handicap (84.8%), Over 1.5 (83.0%) and Home under 2.5 goals (82.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Krško win
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bilje win
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Krško
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.07
0.80
1.87
0.67
2.27
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
2.80
0.88
2.50
0.57
3.14
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.33
0.71
1.14
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.00
0.93
1.00
2.60
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.67
0.75
1.25
1.20
3.80
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.50
0.89
0.89
0.78
2.11
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
0-2
6.1%
1-0
6.0%
Krško goals ↓
Bilje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
6.6%
6.1%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.0%
12%
8.7%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.1%
8.0%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.5%
3.9%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krško goals (down), columns = Bilje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Krško is 0.27 points worse than Bilje in terms of average points per game (0.87 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Krško is 0.10 goals worse than Bilje in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Krško is 0.50 goals worse than Bilje in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Krško or Draw
60.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Krško + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Krško or Bilje
73.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Krško + Bilje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bilje
65.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Draw + Bilje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Krško over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Krško, so a minus line means Krško give that many goals of a start and Bilje receive them. At -1, Krško must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Krško win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Krško)
Krško -2
6.1%
Draw -2
10.3%
Bilje +2
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Krško)
Krško -1
16.3%
Draw -1
17.7%
Bilje +1
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Krško)
Krško +1
60.5%
Draw +1
19.3%
Bilje -1
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Krško)
Krško +2
79.9%
Draw +2
12.1%
Bilje -2
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Krško
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.07
0.62
1.12
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.20
0.67
0.29
0.43
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.33
0.40
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krško over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Krško
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.20
0.33
1.07
0.47
1.33
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.73
0.25
1.38
0.29
2.14
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.67
0.43
0.71
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.67
0.53
0.40
1.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.44
0.50
0.50
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.94
0.56
0.56
0.22
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krško over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Krško and Bilje have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Krško and Bilje have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Krško and Bilje have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Krško and Bilje have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Primorje
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja