Krka are tipped to win the encounter at Krško, with the model favouring an away victory. The match is expected to see about 2.8 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.6 % chance. Krško’s home form shows a modest 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition, while Krka’s away record yields 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded. Home win probability is 25 %, draw 27 %, and away win 48 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0 %), Under 5.5 (93.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (91.2 %), Away +2 handicap (89.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.9 %), and Under 4.5 (84.5 %). Krško are coming off a 0-6 loss to Tabor Sežana, while Krka are returning after a 2-3 defeat to Slovan Ljubljana.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Krško win
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Krka win
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Krško
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.07
0.80
1.87
0.67
2.27
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
2.80
0.88
2.50
0.57
3.14
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.33
0.71
1.14
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
0.93
1.80
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.86
0.50
2.50
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.71
0.90
1.50
1.09
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
8.3%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
6.7%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.4%
Krško goals ↓
Krka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
9.0%
8.3%
4.5%
1.8%
1
6.0%
13%
9.5%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.1%
6.7%
5.4%
2.9%
1.2%
3
1.6%
2.5%
2.1%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krško goals (down), columns = Krka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Krško is 0.10 points worse than Krka in terms of average points per game (0.87 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Krško is 0.27 goals worse than Krka in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Krško is 0.37 goals worse than Krka in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Krško or Draw
52.7%
Avg Implied -
26%
27%
47%
covers Krško + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Krško or Krka
73.0%
Avg Implied -
26%
27%
47%
covers Krško + Krka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Krka
74.3%
Avg Implied -
26%
27%
47%
covers Draw + Krka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Krško over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
Under
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5
Over
31.7%
Under
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Krško, so a minus line means Krško give that many goals of a start and Krka receive them. At -1, Krško must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Krško win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Krško)
Krško -2
3.3%
Draw -2
7.3%
Krka +2
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Krško)
Krško -1
10.6%
Draw -1
15.1%
Krka +1
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Krško)
Krško +1
52.7%
Draw +1
21.9%
Krka -1
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Krško)
Krško +2
74.6%
Draw +2
14.7%
Krka -2
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Krško
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.07
0.62
1.12
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.20
0.67
0.29
0.43
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.57
0.60
0.70
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.7%
Under 0.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.9%
Under 1.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.8%
Under 2.5
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krško over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Krško
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.20
0.33
1.07
0.47
1.33
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.73
0.25
1.38
0.29
2.14
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.67
0.43
0.71
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.07
0.33
1.00
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.00
1.75
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.33
1.14
0.30
0.80
0.36
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.7%
Under 0.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.5%
Under 1.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krško over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Krško and Krka have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Krško and Krka have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Krško and Krka have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Krško and Krka have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →