PythiaFootballBETA
Karpaty's recent form note highlights their impressive away performance, coming off a 4-1 win against Kryvbas KR. This momentum is reflected in the model's selection, which predicts an Away win, the most likely match result. The model disagrees with the market, as the Away win is the favourite, with a 38% probability, followed closely by the Home win at 35% and the Draw at 27%.
The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability. Kryvbas KR's home scoring average is 1.57 goals, while they concede 0.86 goals at home. Karpaty's away scoring average is 0.75 goals, while they concede 1 goal away, against an opponent of similar strength.
The model's selection is the Away win, which has a 38% probability. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 total goals, with an 80.1% probability and a 13% edge. This selection has a 80.1% probability. Other selections include a Home win at 35%, a Draw at 27%, and an Away win at 38%.
The win extends Kryvbas KR's run of inconsistent form, but it was Karpaty who ultimately triumphed, securing a 1-4 victory in a match that saw a total of 5 goals. The model's selection, an Away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 38%. The model's call was vindicated as Karpaty came from behind to take the three points. The model also correctly identified Over 1.5 as the model's selection, which hit with an 80.1% probability.
Kryvbas KR| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.53 | 2.07 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.50 | 3.00 | 2.33 | 3.33 | 0.67 | 2.67 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 2.00 | 1.14 | 2.29 | 1.00 | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Karpaty| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.03 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.75 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.45 | 0.80 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| Karpaty goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 13% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Kryvbas KRKarpatyKryvbas KR| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 24.5 | 23.8 | 25.2 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 9.8 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 20.2 | 24.5 | 17.3 |
| vs Similar (14) | 12.9 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 26.5 | 24.6 | 29.7 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 9.1 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 24.9 | 22.8 | 26.7 |
| % over line | 42% | 62% | 23% | 26% | 20% | 32% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| % under line | 58% | 38% | 77% | 74% | 80% | 68% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
Karpaty| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 25.0 | 27.1 | 23.6 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 21.5 |
| vs Similar (9) | 8.0 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 25.7 | 30.7 | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (35) | 8.9 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 25.6 | 27.0 | 24.6 |
| % over line | 32% | 27% | 35% | 32% | 28% | 36% | 75% | 82% | 71% |
| % under line | 68% | 73% | 65% | 68% | 72% | 64% | 25% | 18% | 29% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.36 | +12.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/12/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/08/24 | A | 3-0 |
Kryvbas KR| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 5-6 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Karpaty| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 4-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Karpaty | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 2 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 224 | 147 | 19 | 58 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 3 |  Polessya | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 4 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 48% |
| 5 | Kryvbas KR | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 6 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 25 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 7 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 62% |
| 8 |  Zorya Luhansk | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 9 |  Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 10 |  Livyi Bereh | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 11 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 42% |
| 12 |  Bukovyna | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 13 |  Kudrivka | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 14 |  Veres Rivne | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1.3 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 15 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 16 |  Chornomorets | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | - |