This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
2.40
0.33
2.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.39
2.09
1.27
1.58
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
30.7%
No
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
16.1%
3-0 ✓
15.2%
1-0
10.9%
4-0
10.8%
2-1
6.2%
5-0
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
1-1
4.8%
Laagri goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
1
11%
4.8%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
2
16%
6.2%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
3
15%
5.9%
1.1%
0.1%
0.0%
4
11%
4.2%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.60
Trans Narva
2.40
Kuressaare
2.25
Laagri
2.25
Vaprus
2.25
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.25
JK Tabasalu
2.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.25
Tamper
2.25
Paide
2.00
Elva
2.00
Phoenix
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.00
Helios
2.00
Legion
1.75
Nõmme United
1.50
Tammeka
1.50
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
Kohtla-Järve
1.50
Maksatransport
1.50
Inter Tartu
1.50
Ararat (Estonia)
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Starmedia
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Vastseliina
1.50
Flora II
1.33
Tulevik
1.33
Hiiumaa
1.33
Tartu Welco
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
KUBIK
1.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Pärnu
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Saue
0.00
Järva-Jaani
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kose II
0.00
Eston Villa
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
Saku Sporting
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Hell Hunt
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
GameSport
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Pelgu City
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Poseidon
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Smsraha
0.00
NPM Silmet
0.00
Saare Latte
0.00
Loo
0.00
Laagri is 0.75 points better than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tammeka
12.50
Laagri
11.00
Vaprus
6.25
Kalju Nomme
6.00
Tallinna Kalev
5.50
Kuressaare
5.25
Elva
4.67
Nõmme United
4.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
4.40
Tartu Kalev
4.33
Tallinna Kalev II
4.00
Trans Narva
3.80
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.67
JK Tabasalu
3.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.00
Hiiumaa
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.00
Vastseliina
3.00
NPM Silmet
3.00
Phoenix
2.50
Legion
2.50
Team Helm
2.50
Tamper
2.50
Helios
2.50
Kohtla-Järve
2.00
Starmedia
2.00
Saare Latte
2.00
Loo
2.00
FC Tallinn
1.75
Flora II
1.67
Tulevik
1.67
Maksatransport
1.50
Inter Tartu
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Ararat (Estonia)
1.50
Paide
1.33
Tartu Welco
1.00
Pärnu
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Kose
1.00
Eston Villa
1.00
FC Kohvile
1.00
Saku Sporting
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Welco X
1.00
Poseidon
1.00
EstHam United
1.00
Rumori Calcio
1.00
Smsraha
1.00
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Saue
0.00
Järva-Jaani
0.00
Kose II
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
GameSport
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Pelgu City
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
Laagri is 6.50 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (11.00 vs 4.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kuressaare
0.50
Helios
0.50
Trans Narva
0.60
Paide
0.67
Kalju Nomme
0.67
Laagri
0.75
Vaprus
0.75
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Tammeka
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
Viimsi
1.00
JK Tabasalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.25
Elva
1.33
Nõmme United
1.50
Phoenix
1.50
Legion
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.67
Flora Tallinn
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
Maksatransport
2.00
Hiiumaa
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
2.50
Vastseliina
2.50
Flora II
2.67
Tartu Kalev
2.67
Tamper
2.75
Pärnu
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Raplamaa
3.00
Järva-Jaani
3.00
FC Kohvile
3.00
Hell Hunt
3.00
Starmedia
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Lootos
3.00
Welco X
3.00
EstHam United
3.00
Smsraha
3.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.50
Team Helm
3.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.50
Saue
4.00
Kuusalu Kalev
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Poseidon
4.00
NPM Silmet
4.00
Loo
4.00
Kohtla-Järve
4.50
Kristiine JK
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
5.00
Rumori Calcio
5.00
Ararat (Estonia)
5.50
Tallinna Kalev III
6.00
Kose
6.00
Flora III
6.00
Saare Latte
6.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
7.00
Pelgu City
7.00
Inter Tartu
7.50
Tallinna Wolves
8.00
Eston Villa
11.00
Olympic
11.00
Maardu Aliens
12.00
TransferWise
15.00
GameSport
24.00
Kose II
26.00
Laagri is 0.75 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Laagri or Draw✓ Hit
97.4%
Avg Implied -
87%
11%
3%
covers Laagri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri or Nõmme United✓ Hit
89.4%
Avg Implied -
87%
11%
3%
covers Laagri + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme United✗ Miss
13.2%
Avg Implied -
87%
11%
3%
covers Draw + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Laagri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.1%
Under
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
77.5%
Under
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Laagri, so a minus line means Laagri give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United receive them. At -1, Laagri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Laagri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Laagri)Actual: Laagri
Laagri -2
45.7%
Draw -2
22.8%
Nõmme United +2
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Laagri)Actual: Laagri
Laagri -1
68.5%
Draw -1
18.3%
Nõmme United +1
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Laagri)Actual: Laagri
Laagri +1
97.4%
Draw +1
2.1%
Nõmme United -1
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Laagri)Actual: Laagri
Laagri +2
99.5%
Draw +2
0.4%
Nõmme United -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.60
1.08
0.62
2.06
0.59
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (18)
1.17
0.61
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (2)
11.00
0.00
-
-
11.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.60
0.73
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.70
0.82
0.45
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.70
1.69
0.77
2.29
0.65
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
1.67
0.61
2.00
0.78
1.33
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
9.50
0.00
-
-
9.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
1.00
0.87
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.70
1.27
0.82
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Laagri and Nõmme United have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Laagri and Nõmme United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Laagri and Nõmme United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Laagri and Nõmme United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →