Defensive solidity is the headline for this encounter, with Larisa’s home form showing only 0.43 goals conceded per match, while Anagennisi Karditsas concedes a full goal on the road. The model projects a tight 1.8-goal affair, most likely ending 1-0 in favour of the home side, a 21.5% probability for that exact scoreline. The probability spread is 57% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 12% for an away win, making a home victory the clear favourite. The expected total of 1.8 goals translates to a 28% chance of exactly one goal being scored. Larisa’s average of 1.86 goals at home against similar opposition contrasts with Anagennisi Karditsas’ 1.0 away goal average and 1.0 conceded, underscoring the defensive edge at home. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 (89.8%), Under 2.5 (74.2%) and BTTS No (72.4%). Larisa’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 3-1 win over Kallithea, versus Anagennisi’s two straight defeats and a 0-2 loss to Aris Thessalonikis, reinforce the expectation of a low-scoring, home-side dominated match.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Larisa on a two-game winning run, while Anagennisi Karditsas comes off two straight defeats. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 57% probability, and the result confirmed this call. The final score was 1-0, a Home win, matching the expected outcome. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit with an 89.8% probability, Under 2.5 goals hit at 74.2%, and BTTS No hit at 72.4%. All figures are reported once, and the analysis remains neutral and concise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Larisa win✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas win✗ Miss
11.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Larisa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.63
1.86
0.36
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.44
0.94
1.86
0.43
1.11
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
0.29
1.86
0.29
1.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Anagennisi Karditsas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anagennisi Karditsas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.97
1.56
1.00
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.06
1.70
1.10
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.85
1.33
0.83
0.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
53.5%
Under 1.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.8%
Under 2.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.2%
Under 3.5
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
27.6%
No
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
21.5%
0-0
18.3%
2-0
14.7%
1-1
11.2%
0-1
6.8%
2-1
6.7%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
2.9%
Larisa goals ↓
Anagennisi Karditsas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
6.8%
1.8%
0.3%
0.0%
1
21%
11%
2.3%
0.3%
0.0%
2
15%
6.7%
1.5%
0.2%
0.0%
3
6.4%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
4
2.1%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Larisa goals (down), columns = Anagennisi Karditsas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levadiakos
2.47
Kallithea
2.13
Larisa
1.97
Kissamikos
1.90
Ionikos
1.57
Ilioupoli
1.53
PAOK II
1.53
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.38
Iraklis 1908
1.38
Niki Volos
1.37
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.33
Egaleo
1.31
Diagoras
1.31
AEK Athens II
1.27
Kalamata
1.27
Panachaiki FC
1.25
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.25
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.22
Kozani
1.19
Giouchtas
1.00
Panathinaikos II
0.94
Tilikratis
0.82
Aiolikos
0.75
Apollon Pontou
0.50
Larisa is 0.75 points better than Anagennisi Karditsas in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kissamikos
1.93
Levadiakos
1.77
Kallithea
1.63
PAOK II
1.62
Larisa
1.60
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.50
Ionikos
1.43
Niki Volos
1.37
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.23
Iraklis 1908
1.09
Panachaiki FC
1.09
AEK Athens II
1.07
Ilioupoli
1.03
Kalamata
0.97
Kampaniakos Chalastra
0.94
Diagoras
0.91
Giouchtas
0.88
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.88
Aiolikos
0.84
Panathinaikos II
0.78
Kozani
0.78
Egaleo
0.78
Tilikratis
0.77
Apollon Pontou
0.55
Larisa is 0.73 goals better than Anagennisi Karditsas in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Levadiakos
0.47
Kallithea
0.63
Larisa
0.87
Iraklis 1908
0.88
Kozani
0.91
Kissamikos
0.93
Egaleo
0.94
Ionikos
0.97
Kalamata
1.00
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.06
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.06
Diagoras
1.12
AEK Athens II
1.17
Niki Volos
1.17
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.27
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.28
Panachaiki FC
1.31
Giouchtas
1.34
PAOK II
1.38
Ilioupoli
1.40
Panathinaikos II
1.47
Aiolikos
1.59
Tilikratis
1.68
Apollon Pontou
2.05
Larisa is 0.20 goals better than Anagennisi Karditsas in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Larisa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
0.73
0.20
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.56
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.07
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Anagennisi Karditsas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anagennisi Karditsas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.56
0.25
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.29
0.60
0.30
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
0.23
0.38
0.50
0.17
0.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Larisa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Larisa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.38
1.12
0.25
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.21
0.86
0.14
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Anagennisi Karditsas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anagennisi Karditsas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
1.00
0.75
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.76
1.10
0.80
0.14
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.46
0.83
0.67
0.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Larisa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS No
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Larisa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ángelo Sagal21%
Ľubomír Tupta20%
Giannis Pasas15%
Petros Bagalianis14%
Leandro Garate14%
Amr Warda12%
Facundo Pérez12%
Gaël Kakuta8%
Soufiane Chakla8%
Konstantinos Apostolakis7%
Yvann Maçon6%
Jani Atanasov3%
Christos Giousis0%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Athanasios Papageorgiou0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Epameinondas Pantelakis0%
Paschalis Staikos0%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis0%
Theodoros Venetikidis0%
Erick Ferigra0%
Lazar Rosić0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Pione Sisto0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson0%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos0%
Savvas Mourgos0%
Goni Naor0%
Zisis Chatzistravos0%
Vasilios Sourlis0%
Luca Andrada0%
Theocharis Iliadis0%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou0%
King Faisal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lazar Rosić43%
Epameinondas Pantelakis40%
Bojan Kovačević38%
Yvann Maçon33%
Jani Atanasov32%
Soufiane Chakla31%
Theocharis Iliadis30%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Petros Bagalianis29%
Savvas Mourgos26%
Ángelo Sagal25%
Facundo Pérez24%
Theodoros Venetikidis22%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou22%
Vasilios Sourlis22%
Goni Naor21%
Leandro Garate21%
Athanasios Papageorgiou18%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson18%
Paschalis Staikos17%
Nikolaos Melissas15%
Christos Giousis14%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos14%
Amr Warda12%
Dylan Batubinsika12%
Erick Ferigra11%
Pione Sisto10%
Zisis Chatzistravos9%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis8%
Giannis Pasas7%
Ľubomír Tupta6%
Gaël Kakuta0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Luca Andrada0%
King Faisal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gaël Kakuta17%
Amr Warda12%
Ángelo Sagal11%
Pione Sisto10%
Athanasios Papageorgiou9%
Savvas Mourgos9%
Paschalis Staikos8%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis8%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson6%
Ľubomír Tupta6%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou6%
Erick Ferigra5%
Goni Naor5%
Giannis Pasas4%
Leandro Garate3%
Jani Atanasov3%
Christos Giousis0%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Yvann Maçon0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Epameinondas Pantelakis0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Theodoros Venetikidis0%
Lazar Rosić0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Soufiane Chakla0%
Facundo Pérez0%
Zisis Chatzistravos0%
Vasilios Sourlis0%
Luca Andrada0%
Theocharis Iliadis0%
King Faisal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jani Atanasov23%
Ľubomír Tupta20%
Christos Giousis14%
Ángelo Sagal14%
Pione Sisto10%
Leandro Garate7%
Yvann Maçon6%
Zisis Chatzistravos4%
Facundo Pérez3%
Amr Warda0%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Athanasios Papageorgiou0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Epameinondas Pantelakis0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Paschalis Staikos0%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis0%
Theodoros Venetikidis0%
Giannis Pasas0%
Erick Ferigra0%
Lazar Rosić0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Gaël Kakuta0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson0%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Savvas Mourgos0%
Goni Naor0%
Soufiane Chakla0%
Vasilios Sourlis0%
Luca Andrada0%
Theocharis Iliadis0%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou0%
King Faisal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (24)
€16m
KAL (28)
€11m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ILI (31)
€4m
MN (29)
€3m
KC (26)
€2m
AP (16)
€2m
Larisa and Anagennisi Karditsas have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (11)
€5m
KAL (8)
€4m
EGA (19)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
KC (8)
€1m
Larisa and Anagennisi Karditsas have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (4)
€5m
I1 (7)
€3m
KAL (6)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
KC (7)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
Larisa and Anagennisi Karditsas have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
I1 (12)
€4m
KAL (14)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
LAR (13)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
MN (15)
€1m
KC (11)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Larisa and Anagennisi Karditsas have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Greece: Super League 2 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levadiakos
Kallithea
Kissamikos
PAOK II
Ionikos
Ilioupoli
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Iraklis 1908
Egaleo
Diagoras
Niki Volos
Makedonikos Neapolis
Panachaiki FC
Kampaniakos Chalastra
Kalamata
AEK Athens II
Kozani
Giouchtas
Panathinaikos II
Aiolikos
Tilikratis
Apollon Pontou
Almopos