Le Mans are tipped to win, with the model assigning a 54 % chance of a home victory, 34 % for a draw and 13 % for a Stade Brestois 29 win. The expected goal tally sits at 1.6, and the most probable total is a single goal, a 30 % chance of exactly one goal. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-0, with a 22.3 % probability. Le Mans have averaged one goal scored and one conceded at home against stronger opposition, while Brestois have not been featured in the data. The model’s suggested picks include an Under 7.5 (100 %) and an Away under 3.5 goals (99.9 % with a 6 % edge). Other low-goal selections - Under 6.5 (99.9 % +4 % edge), Under 5.5 (99.4 % +7 % edge), Away under 2.5 goals (99 % +15 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 % +4 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6 %) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6 % +4 % edge) - are also highlighted. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with Le Mans the clear favourite according to the model.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Le Mans, failed to secure the win the model had predicted with a 54 % probability, and the match finished a 2-2 draw. The home side’s unbeaten run in their last five, highlighted by the 2-2 against Brest, was halted, while the visitors, coming off a draw, mirrored that result. The model’s selection for a home win was incorrect. All of the suggested picks were settled: Under 7.5 (100 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (99.9 %) hit, Under 6.5 (99.9 %) hit, Under 5.5 (99.4 %) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (99.0 %) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6 %) hit, and Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6 %) hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Le Mans win✗ Miss
53.6%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.51
Edge
+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.61
1xBet
2.59
Dafabet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Draw✓ Hit
33.6%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.37
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.52
10Bet
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Stade Brestois 29 win✗ Miss
12.8%
Avg Implied 34.1% · @ 2.78
Edge
-21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.88
1xBet
2.86
Superbet
2.85
Dafabet
2.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Le Mans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.80
1.08
0.23
1.53
1.24
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.38
0.65
1.08
0.17
1.64
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.50
1.43
1.21
0.94
1.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.33
0.75
0.75
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.60
1.70
1.40
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (30%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.1%
@ 1.29-24.1%
Under 1.5
50.9%
@ 3.50+24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Under
Unibet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
22.1%
@ 1.92-27.5%
Under 2.5
77.9%
@ 1.90+27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
2.00
888Sport
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
8.1%
@ 3.25-20.9%
Under 3.5
91.9%
@ 1.33+20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.42
888Sport
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
25.6%
@ 1.68-29.8%
No
74.4%
@ 2.09+29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
William Hil
1.70
No
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.15
William Hil
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
22.3%@ 8.21+16.9%
0-0
20.9%@ 10.26+16.5%
2-0
13.8%@ 11.91+10.0%
1-1
11.3%@ 5.96+3.7%
0-1
7.7%@ 8.63+2.5%
2-1
6.0%@ 8.92+1.0%
3-0
5.4%@ 23.72+3.5%
3-1
2.4%@ 18.00-0.1%
Le Mans goals ↓
Stade Brestois 29 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
21%
7.7%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
1
22%
11%
2.3%
0.3%
0.0%
2
14%
6.0%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
3
5.4%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
4
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Le Mans goals (down), columns = Stade Brestois 29 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Le Mans is 0.32 points worse than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Le Mans is 0.38 goals worse than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Le Mans is 0.70 goals worse than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.32 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Le Mans
For 5.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.7 · Against 9.9 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stade Brestois 29
For 3.1 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Le Mans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.8
9.2
3.6
3.2
4.0
27.1
25.7
28.4
vs Stronger (4)
6.7
5.0
7.5
1.5
0.5
2.5
21.7
23.0
21.0
vs Similar (41)
9.7
10.1
9.4
4.1
3.6
4.6
27.3
25.8
28.9
vs Weaker (5)
9.0
-
9.0
1.6
0.0
2.0
34.0
-
34.0
% over line
56%
62%
50%
52%
50%
54%
86%
81%
91%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
48%
50%
46%
14%
19%
9%
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.2
10.5
3.6
3.5
3.7
24.8
24.0
25.6
vs Stronger (15)
8.9
8.3
9.5
2.9
3.7
2.2
23.5
25.3
21.9
vs Similar (34)
10.2
9.5
10.9
3.9
3.4
4.4
25.3
23.5
27.1
vs Weaker (1)
12.0
-
12.0
5.0
-
5.0
30.0
-
30.0
% over line
51%
46%
56%
54%
52%
56%
69%
62%
76%
% under line
49%
54%
44%
46%
48%
44%
31%
38%
24%
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.2
Stade Brestois 29
9.8
Lyon
9.8
Auxerre
9.8
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.5
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lorient
8.8
Estac Troyes
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.5
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.5
Le Mans
27.3
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.8
Lyon
25.4
Toulouse
25.4
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Rennes
24.1
Lille
23.9
Monaco
23.8
Nice
23.8
Strasbourg
23.6
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.1
Paris FC
22.6
Angers
22.5
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.2%
@ 2.06+11.1%
Under 9.5
43.8%
@ 1.69-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Under
Unibet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.3%
@ 1.65-3.2%
Under 3.5
46.7%
@ 2.14+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.2%
@ 1.31+0.5%
Under 21.5
29.8%
@ 3.00-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.31
Under
1xBet
3.00
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Le Mans or Draw✓ Hit
87.2%
Avg Implied 65.7% · @ 1.43
Edge
+21.5%
54%
34%
13%
covers Le Mans + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Le Mans or Stade Brestois 29✗ Miss
66.4%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
-5.7%
54%
34%
13%
covers Le Mans + Stade Brestois 29
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Draw or Stade Brestois 29✓ Hit
46.4%
Avg Implied 62.1% · @ 1.52
Edge
-15.7%
54%
34%
13%
covers Draw + Stade Brestois 29
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Le Mans over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.2%
@ 1.26-4.7%
Under
30.8%
@ 3.55+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.72
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Le Mans over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.9%
@ 2.33-7.3%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.57+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Marathonbet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Le Mans over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 5.29-6.1%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.13+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
888Sport
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Le Mans over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 12.83-4.2%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
12.50
1xBet
12.00
Under
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
35.6%
@ 1.29-36.4%
Under
64.4%
@ 3.31+36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
7.3%
@ 2.48-30.5%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.50+30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
1xBet
2.54
Marathonbet
2.54
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 5.81-15.0%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.11+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Under
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.1%
@ 15.31-6.1%
Under
99.9%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
19.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Le Mans, so a minus line means Le Mans give that many goals of a start and Stade Brestois 29 receive them. At -1, Le Mans must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Le Mans win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Le Mans)Actual: Stade Brestois 29
Le Mans -2
8.4%
@ 10.33-0.2%
Draw -2
16.3%
@ 6.58+2.7%
Stade Brestois 29 +2
75.3%
@ 1.14-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Le Mans)Actual: Stade Brestois 29
Le Mans -1
24.7%
@ 4.87+6.1%
Draw -1
28.9%
@ 4.12+7.0%
Stade Brestois 29 +1
46.4%
@ 1.51-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.56
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Handicap +1 (Le Mans)Actual: Le Mans
Le Mans +1
87.2%
@ 1.43+24.0%
Draw +1
10.2%
@ 4.40-10.4%
Stade Brestois 29 -1
2.6%
@ 5.59-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Away
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Handicap +2 (Le Mans)Actual: Le Mans
Le Mans +2
97.4%
@ 1.11+17.3%
Draw +2
2.3%
@ 7.17-10.1%
Stade Brestois 29 -2
0.4%
@ 11.83-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
11.50
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Le Mans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
0.54
0.08
0.94
0.59
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.27
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.79
0.64
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.75
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
63.0%
@ 1.38-5.0%
Under 0.5
37.0%
@ 2.93+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Under
10Bet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
27.2%
@ 2.76-6.8%
Under 1.5
72.8%
@ 1.42+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.92
Pinnacle
2.92
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.89
Superbet
2.82
Under
10Bet
1.48
William Hil
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.8%
@ 7.07-4.5%
Under 2.5
91.2%
@ 1.08+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Under
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Le Mans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.4%
@ 2.02-1.7%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.73+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Le Mans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 6.20-5.1%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.09+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.10
Betano
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Le Mans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 16.00-3.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
32.9%
@ 2.10-11.4%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.67+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.66
Unibet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 6.73-7.3%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.07+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 17.25-4.3%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Le Mans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.54
0.15
0.59
0.65
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.38
0.58
0.17
0.64
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.64
0.57
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.56
0.00
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.85
0.90
0.70
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.0%
Under 1.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Le Mans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Le Mans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Le Mans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
99.4%
1.03
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
99.0%
1.11
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
+15.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
97.5%
1.10
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+12.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.4%
1.11
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+17.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.08
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.08
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.09
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.13
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.1%
1.30
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
-
-
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.6%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.24
-
+1.7%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.8%
1.42
10Bet
1.48
William Hil
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Unibet
1.42
+6.8%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.2%
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Le Mans · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dame Gueye25%
Antoine Rabillard21%
Erwan Colas20%
William Harhouz18%
Lucas Bretelle15%
Samuel Yohou12%
Jean Vercruysse11%
Lucas Buades10%
Taylor Luvambo8%
Milan Robin7%
Théo Eyoum7%
Lucas Calodat6%
Edwin Quarshie6%
Anthony Ribelin5%
Isaac Cossier4%
Harold Voyer4%
Martin Rossignol4%
Alexandre Lauray0%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Nicolas Kocik0%
Leroy Abanda0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Brice Oggad0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
Malang Gomes0%
Noa Boissé0%
Adil Bourabaa0%
Izhak Hammoudi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathis Hamdi50%
Malang Gomes50%
Alexandre Lauray40%
Samuel Yohou26%
Martin Rossignol22%
Izhak Hammoudi20%
Anthony Ribelin19%
Harold Voyer19%
Lucas Buades17%
Nicolas Kocik16%
Noa Boissé15%
Isaac Cossier15%
Leroy Abanda14%
Edwin Quarshie11%
Jean Vercruysse11%
Milan Robin10%
Théo Eyoum9%
Brice Oggad9%
William Harhouz9%
Lucas Calodat9%
Taylor Luvambo8%
Lucas Bretelle8%
Adil Bourabaa7%
Erwan Colas7%
Antoine Rabillard6%
Dame Gueye6%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Brice Oggad18%
Leroy Abanda14%
Antoine Rabillard12%
Lucas Calodat12%
Dame Gueye11%
Lucas Buades10%
Erwan Colas10%
Milan Robin10%
Lucas Bretelle8%
Adil Bourabaa7%
Alexandre Lauray6%
William Harhouz5%
Martin Rossignol4%
Edwin Quarshie3%
Samuel Yohou0%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Nicolas Kocik0%
Anthony Ribelin0%
Jean Vercruysse0%
Harold Voyer0%
Taylor Luvambo0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
Malang Gomes0%
Noa Boissé0%
Isaac Cossier0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Izhak Hammoudi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dame Gueye14%
Erwan Colas10%
Antoine Rabillard9%
Taylor Luvambo8%
Lucas Bretelle8%
Adil Bourabaa7%
Martin Rossignol4%
Milan Robin3%
Lucas Calodat3%
Alexandre Lauray0%
Samuel Yohou0%
Lucas Buades0%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Nicolas Kocik0%
Edwin Quarshie0%
Anthony Ribelin0%
Jean Vercruysse0%
Leroy Abanda0%
Harold Voyer0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Brice Oggad0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
William Harhouz0%
Malang Gomes0%
Noa Boissé0%
Isaac Cossier0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Izhak Hammoudi0%
Stade Brestois 29 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Romain Del Castillo27%
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Remy Labeau Lascary21%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Junior Dina Ebimbe15%
Mama Baldé11%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart4%
Daouda Guindo4%
Pathé Mboup4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ludovic Ajorque28%
Kamory Doumbia25%
Michel Diaz24%
Brendan Chardonnet23%
Pathé Mboup21%
Soumaila Coulibaly19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Daouda Guindo15%
Hugo Magnetti15%
Kenny Lala15%
Junior Dina Ebimbe11%
Grégoire Coudert8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Mama Baldé0%
Bradley Locko0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Romain Del Castillo12%
Mama Baldé11%
Brendan Chardonnet10%
Kenny Lala9%
Bradley Locko9%
Daouda Guindo4%
Remy Labeau Lascary4%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Joris Chotard3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Junior Dina Ebimbe0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Michel Diaz0%
Pathé Mboup0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ludovic Ajorque19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Mama Baldé16%
Kamory Doumbia8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Pathé Mboup7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Junior Dina Ebimbe4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Hugo Magnetti0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Daouda Guindo0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Le Mans's squad is €39m less valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€24m vs €64m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Le Mans's attack is €21m less valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€4m vs €25m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Le Mans's midfield is €14m less valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€5m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Le Mans's defence is €4m less valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€15m vs €19m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre