This opponent (Palermo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Palermo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.40
2.00
1.33
1.60
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
3.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
2.06
1.38
2.57
1.57
1.67
1.22
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
1.42
1.29
1.29
1.20
1.60
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.5%
@ 1.68+11.4%
Under 2.5
32.5%
@ 2.15-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.9%
Under 3.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.7%
No
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
1-3
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
2-1
5.8%
0-1 ✓
5.8%
0-3
5.2%
Lecco goals ↓
Palermo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
5.8%
7.2%
5.2%
2.8%
1
3.2%
9.7%
9.5%
6.8%
3.7%
2
2.7%
5.8%
6.3%
4.5%
2.4%
3
1.2%
2.5%
2.8%
2.0%
1.1%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lecco goals (down), columns = Palermo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Lecco is 0.75 points worse than Palermo in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Lecco is 0.66 goals worse than Palermo in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Lecco is 0.58 goals worse than Palermo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.95 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Lecco is 3.3 percentage points worse than Palermo in terms of average possession (47% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lecco
For 6.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 14.2 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Palermo
For 4.7 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (28)
9.9
8.8
10.7
5.8
6.1
5.5
27.8
28.6
27.0
vs Stronger (22)
9.9
8.8
10.8
6.0
6.0
5.9
28.6
30.0
27.4
vs Similar (6)
9.7
9.0
10.3
5.2
6.3
4.0
24.7
24.0
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
38%
53%
89%
85%
93%
89%
85%
93%
% under line
54%
62%
47%
11%
15%
7%
11%
15%
7%
This opponent (Palermo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Palermo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.9
10.9
3.1
3.2
2.9
26.3
26.5
26.1
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
8.0
10.0
3.7
4.0
3.5
28.5
32.0
25.0
vs Similar (26)
10.9
11.9
10.0
3.6
4.0
3.2
27.0
27.1
26.9
vs Weaker (21)
10.0
7.8
12.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
24.9
24.8
25.0
% over line
61%
57%
64%
48%
54%
42%
89%
93%
86%
% under line
39%
43%
36%
52%
46%
58%
11%
7%
14%
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Parma
10.4
Bari
10.3
Venezia
10.3
Ternana
10.1
Palermo
10.1
Cremonese
10.0
Modena
9.9
Spezia
9.9
Lecco
9.9
Pisa
9.8
Brescia
9.8
Como
9.6
Reggiana
9.6
Cosenza
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Cittadella
9.1
FeralpiSalo
9.0
Catanzaro
8.6
Sampdoria
8.5
Sudtirol
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.5
Pisa
6.3
Cittadella
6.0
Modena
5.9
Ascoli
5.8
Sudtirol
5.8
Lecco
5.8
Spezia
5.8
Catanzaro
5.6
Cremonese
5.5
Sampdoria
5.5
Parma
5.4
Reggiana
5.4
FeralpiSalo
5.3
Bari
5.3
Palermo
5.3
Venezia
5.2
Como
5.2
Brescia
5.1
Ternana
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
32.3
Ascoli
31.8
Reggiana
30.4
Sudtirol
30.3
Palermo
29.8
Catanzaro
29.7
Como
29.4
Bari
29.4
Sampdoria
29.4
Spezia
29.3
Pisa
29.1
Modena
28.9
Cosenza
28.5
Brescia
28.3
Cremonese
28.0
Ternana
27.8
Lecco
27.8
Parma
27.6
FeralpiSalo
27.4
Venezia
25.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.1%
Under 9.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
83.1%
Under 3.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.5%
Under 21.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lecco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.39
0.61
0.31
0.69
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (22)
0.41
0.55
0.20
0.70
0.58
0.42
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Palermo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.62
0.86
0.86
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.67
0.71
0.43
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lecco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lecco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.29
0.77
1.31
0.40
1.27
vs Stronger (22)
0.59
1.14
0.80
1.10
0.42
1.17
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.83
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Palermo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Palermo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.20
0.73
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.25
0.75
1.71
0.71
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.75
0.57
0.86
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lecco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Palermo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lecco
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nicolò Buso26%
Andrija Novakovich13%
Franco Lepore12%
Artur Ioniță11%
Mattia Tordini11%
Umberto Eusepi8%
Lorenzo Di Stefano8%
Roberto Inglese7%
Alessandro Sersanti6%
Giovanni Crociata6%
Mats Lemmens6%
Alessandro Bianconi4%
Alessandro Caporale3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Mario Ierardi0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Luca Giudici0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Duccio Degli Innocenti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Marrone50%
Alessandro Sersanti39%
Mats Lemmens39%
Giovanni Crociata36%
Eugenio Lamanna33%
Mattia Tordini33%
Vittorio Parigini31%
Duccio Degli Innocenti28%
Mario Ierardi25%
Alessandro Caporale23%
Davide Guglielmotti23%
Alessandro Bianconi17%
Elio Capradossi17%
Matteo Battistini15%
Franco Lepore15%
Marco Frigerio14%
Giorgio Galli11%
Vedran Celjak11%
Andrija Novakovich11%
Eddie Salcedo10%
Gabriel Lunetta10%
Artur Ioniță8%
Umberto Eusepi8%
Lorenzo Di Stefano8%
Nicolò Buso6%
Roberto Inglese0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Luca Giudici0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lorenzo Di Stefano15%
Franco Lepore15%
Alessandro Caporale13%
Mario Ierardi12%
Luca Giudici9%
Artur Ioniță8%
Nicolò Buso6%
Giovanni Crociata6%
Mats Lemmens6%
Duccio Degli Innocenti3%
Alessandro Sersanti3%
Andrija Novakovich3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Umberto Eusepi0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Roberto Inglese0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Alessandro Bianconi0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Mattia Tordini0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nicolò Buso29%
Andrija Novakovich16%
Lorenzo Di Stefano15%
Mario Ierardi12%
Giovanni Crociata8%
Duccio Degli Innocenti7%
Franco Lepore6%
Alessandro Sersanti6%
Artur Ioniță6%
Alessandro Caporale3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Umberto Eusepi0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Roberto Inglese0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Luca Giudici0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Alessandro Bianconi0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Mattia Tordini0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Palermo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Matteo Brunori32%
Filippo Ranocchia27%
Leo Štulac19%
Jacopo Segre19%
Leonardo Mancuso14%
Federico Di Francesco14%
Edoardo Soleri12%
Salim Diakité11%
Alessio Buttaro10%
Ionuț Nedelcearu10%
Fabio Lucioni8%
Roberto Insigne7%
Simon Graves Jensen7%
Pietro Ceccaroni7%
Kristoffer Lund5%
Mamadou Coulibaly5%
Giuseppe Aurelio4%
Liam Henderson3%
Claudio Gomes0%
Aleš Matějů0%
Francesco Di Mariano0%
Ivan Marconi0%
Nicola Valente0%
Mirko Pigliacelli0%
Aljoša Vasić0%
Chaka Traorè0%
Sebastiano Desplanches0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filippo Ranocchia33%
Fabio Lucioni31%
Aleš Matějů29%
Mamadou Coulibaly26%
Sebastiano Desplanches25%
Ivan Marconi23%
Salim Diakité22%
Simon Graves Jensen20%
Nicola Valente20%
Leo Štulac19%
Ionuț Nedelcearu19%
Francesco Di Mariano17%
Federico Di Francesco14%
Pietro Ceccaroni13%
Matteo Brunori12%
Claudio Gomes11%
Giuseppe Aurelio11%
Kristoffer Lund11%
Aljoša Vasić11%
Alessio Buttaro10%
Liam Henderson10%
Edoardo Soleri9%
Jacopo Segre8%
Roberto Insigne4%
Leonardo Mancuso4%
Mirko Pigliacelli0%
Chaka Traorè0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicola Valente30%
Francesco Di Mariano14%
Jacopo Segre14%
Liam Henderson13%
Matteo Brunori12%
Roberto Insigne11%
Leonardo Mancuso11%
Alessio Buttaro10%
Leo Štulac10%
Claudio Gomes8%
Kristoffer Lund8%
Simon Graves Jensen7%
Filippo Ranocchia7%
Pietro Ceccaroni7%
Edoardo Soleri6%
Federico Di Francesco6%
Salim Diakité6%
Mamadou Coulibaly5%
Fabio Lucioni4%
Giuseppe Aurelio4%
Aleš Matějů0%
Ivan Marconi0%
Mirko Pigliacelli0%
Ionuț Nedelcearu0%
Aljoša Vasić0%
Chaka Traorè0%
Sebastiano Desplanches0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matteo Brunori25%
Leo Štulac14%
Federico Di Francesco11%
Roberto Insigne7%
Filippo Ranocchia7%
Edoardo Soleri6%
Jacopo Segre5%
Aljoša Vasić5%
Fabio Lucioni4%
Leonardo Mancuso4%
Liam Henderson3%
Kristoffer Lund3%
Claudio Gomes0%
Simon Graves Jensen0%
Aleš Matějů0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Francesco Di Mariano0%
Pietro Ceccaroni0%
Ivan Marconi0%
Nicola Valente0%
Mirko Pigliacelli0%
Ionuț Nedelcearu0%
Giuseppe Aurelio0%
Salim Diakité0%
Chaka Traorè0%
Sebastiano Desplanches0%
Alessio Buttaro0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Sampdoria
Brescia
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Modena
Reggiana
Pisa
Cittadella
Bari
Ternana
Spezia
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo