Lech Poznan’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 3-2 win over Widzew Łódź, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, while Jagiellonia’s three-game winning streak, capped by a 5-2 victory against Raków Częstochowa, suggests a potent attack. The model projects a 42% chance of a home win, a 25% draw, and a 33% away win, making a Lech victory the favoured result. With an expected total of 3.3 goals, the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.2% probability. Lech averages 2.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Jagiellonia nets 3.33 and concedes 0.67 on the road. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.4%, Under 6.5 at 95.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.2%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 90.2%.
Results analysis
Lech Poznan’s 2-1 triumph over Jagiellonia confirmed the model’s prediction, with the home side’s win extending their two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 44% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections all hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4%, Under 7.5 at 98.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.3%, Under 6.5 at 95.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.6%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 89.5%. With the final score of 2-1, the model’s predictions were spot on, delivering a clean sweep of hits.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lech Poznan win✓ Hit
43.5%
Avg Implied 56.4% · @ 1.65
Edge
-12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Dafabet
1.70
William Hil
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.66
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 22.2% · @ 4.19
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.37
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.30
Dafabet
4.30
Jagiellonia win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.35
Edge
+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.69
10Bet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lech Poznan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.97
2.27
1.13
1.80
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
2.36
0.91
2.67
1.17
2.00
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
1.88
0.88
2.12
0.88
1.67
0.89
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jagiellonia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jagiellonia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.13
1.50
1.31
1.79
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.44
1.17
1.83
3.33
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.61
1.06
1.67
1.00
1.56
1.11
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
@ 1.11+0.3%
Under 1.5
15.3%
@ 5.97-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Under
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.22
Unibet
6.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.4%
@ 1.41-2.9%
Under 2.5
36.6%
@ 2.76+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Under
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Bet365
2.88
Pinnacle
2.86
Unibet
2.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.2%
@ 2.05-4.6%
Under 3.5
58.8%
@ 1.73+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.05
Under
Betfair
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.77
BetVictor
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.3%
@ 1.45+1.3%
No
34.7%
@ 2.58-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.52
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
No
Betfair
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 8.29+5.7%
2-1 ✓
9.0%@ 7.79+3.2%
1-2
7.5%@ 13.12+4.1%
2-2
6.7%@ 11.30+2.7%
2-0
6.0%@ 10.04+1.6%
1-0
5.8%@ 10.46+1.5%
3-1
5.3%@ 10.68+1.1%
0-0
4.8%@ 17.57+2.3%
Lech Poznan goals ↓
Jagiellonia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
4.7%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
1
5.8%
11%
7.5%
3.7%
1.4%
2
6.0%
9.0%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.6%
5.3%
4.0%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lech Poznan goals (down), columns = Jagiellonia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Lech Poznan is 0.80 points better than Jagiellonia in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Lech Poznan is 0.20 goals better than Jagiellonia in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Lech Poznan is 0.60 goals better than Jagiellonia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Lech Poznan is 4.0 percentage points worse than Jagiellonia in terms of average possession (54% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lech Poznan
For 7.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jagiellonia
For 4.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lech Poznan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.5
9.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
24.5
24.5
24.6
vs Stronger (2)
5.0
1.0
9.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
18.0
19.0
17.0
vs Similar (19)
10.2
10.0
10.4
4.2
3.8
4.8
26.2
26.6
25.8
vs Weaker (29)
10.4
11.7
9.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
23.8
23.0
24.5
% over line
52%
55%
50%
50%
48%
52%
67%
73%
62%
% under line
48%
45%
50%
50%
52%
48%
33%
27%
38%
This opponent (Jagiellonia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jagiellonia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.5
9.1
4.0
4.1
4.0
26.4
28.4
24.6
vs Stronger (3)
9.5
6.0
13.0
3.3
4.0
3.0
25.0
26.0
24.0
vs Similar (18)
9.4
9.2
9.5
4.1
3.7
4.6
27.4
30.0
24.5
vs Weaker (29)
9.3
10.0
8.6
4.1
4.5
3.8
25.9
27.4
24.6
% over line
47%
45%
48%
52%
57%
48%
71%
77%
65%
% under line
53%
55%
52%
48%
43%
52%
29%
23%
35%
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
10.7
Wieczysta Kraków
10.4
Pogon Szczecin
10.3
Lech Poznan
10.3
Zaglebie Lubin
10.2
Slask Wroclaw
10.2
Radomiak Radom
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Motor Lublin
10.1
Cracovia Krakow
10.1
Piast Gliwice
10.0
GKS Katowice
9.9
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.4
Widzew Łódź
9.2
Legia Warszawa
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.2
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Motor Lublin
4.8
Raków Częstochowa
4.7
Slask Wroclaw
4.6
Zaglebie Lubin
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.6
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Pogon Szczecin
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Wisla Plock
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.9
Korona Kielce
3.9
Wisla Krakow
3.7
GKS Katowice
3.7
Piast Gliwice
3.6
Wieczysta Kraków
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.9
Wieczysta Kraków
26.6
Jagiellonia
26.6
Widzew Łódź
26.4
Legia Warszawa
25.9
Wisla Krakow
25.7
Korona Kielce
25.6
Cracovia Krakow
25.3
Motor Lublin
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.7
Slask Wroclaw
24.6
Piast Gliwice
24.2
Lech Poznan
24.1
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
GKS Katowice
23.7
Gornik Zabrze
22.8
Wisla Plock
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.8%
@ 1.53-5.2%
Under 9.5
45.2%
@ 2.31+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Under
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.0%
@ 1.52-6.4%
Under 3.5
46.0%
@ 2.32+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.52
Under
Superbet
2.32
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.1%
Under 21.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lech Poznan or Draw✓ Hit
68.5%
Avg Implied 78.6% · @ 1.19
Edge
-10.1%
44%
25%
32%
covers Lech Poznan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Lech Poznan or Jagiellonia✓ Hit
75.1%
Avg Implied 78.2% · @ 1.20
Edge
-3.1%
44%
25%
32%
covers Lech Poznan + Jagiellonia
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Draw or Jagiellonia✗ Miss
56.5%
Avg Implied 43.3% · @ 2.16
Edge
+13.2%
44%
25%
32%
covers Draw + Jagiellonia
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Betano
2.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lech Poznan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.0%
@ 1.08-3.2%
Under
17.0%
@ 6.78+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Under
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Lech Poznan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.0%
@ 1.46-10.8%
Under
47.0%
@ 2.57+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.67
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Marathonbet
2.59
Lech Poznan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.3%
@ 2.47-11.4%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.49+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Lech Poznan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 4.72-9.1%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.15+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.85
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Jagiellonia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.5%
@ 1.31+6.8%
Under
22.5%
@ 3.16-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Jagiellonia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.9%
@ 2.53+7.1%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.48-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
Superbet
2.67
10Bet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.56
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Jagiellonia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 5.87+3.0%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.10-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Jagiellonia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 14.42-0.2%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.02+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lech Poznan, so a minus line means Lech Poznan give that many goals of a start and Jagiellonia receive them. At -1, Lech Poznan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lech Poznan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lech Poznan)Actual: Jagiellonia
Lech Poznan -2
10.4%
@ 4.53-9.3%
Draw -2
13.4%
@ 4.72-5.5%
Jagiellonia +2
76.1%
@ 1.46+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Handicap -1 (Lech Poznan)Actual: Draw
Lech Poznan -1
23.9%
@ 2.50-11.9%
Draw -1
19.7%
@ 3.81-3.8%
Jagiellonia +1
56.5%
@ 2.19+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.60
Superbet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Away
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Handicap +1 (Lech Poznan)Actual: Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan +1
68.5%
@ 1.19-5.6%
Draw +1
16.4%
@ 5.91+1.5%
Jagiellonia -1
15.2%
@ 8.00+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Unibet
5.75
Marathonbet
4.33
Away
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
8.40
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
5.60
Handicap +2 (Lech Poznan)Actual: Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan +2
84.8%
@ 1.05-2.2%
Draw +2
9.5%
@ 11.00+1.1%
Jagiellonia -2
5.7%
@ 20.00+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lech Poznan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.37
1.13
0.40
1.27
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
1.36
0.55
1.83
0.67
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.24
0.75
0.12
1.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Jagiellonia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jagiellonia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.44
0.83
0.50
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.50
0.78
0.44
0.89
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.7%
@ 1.22-1.5%
Under 0.5
25.3%
@ 3.90+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.7%
@ 2.05-4.7%
Under 1.5
59.3%
@ 1.70+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.05
Under
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 4.37-7.0%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.17+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Betano
4.40
Superbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lech Poznan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.8%
@ 1.51-0.7%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.42+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.55
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Lech Poznan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.7%
@ 3.49-4.9%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.26+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.65
Marathonbet
3.55
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Under
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Lech Poznan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 8.90-5.7%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Superbet
8.80
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Jagiellonia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.5%
@ 2.17+0.6%
Under
56.5%
@ 1.63-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.68
Unibet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Jagiellonia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 7.06-2.3%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.07+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
Superbet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Jagiellonia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 19.75-3.3%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lech Poznan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.13
0.73
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.36
0.83
0.50
1.20
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.65
1.38
0.75
0.22
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Jagiellonia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jagiellonia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.62
0.81
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.00
0.33
1.33
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
0.78
0.56
0.89
0.56
0.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.8%
@ 1.12-2.5%
Under 0.5
19.2%
@ 5.58+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.10
Marathonbet
5.75
10Bet
5.60
Betano
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.3%
@ 1.62-5.9%
Under 1.5
48.7%
@ 2.17+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Under
1xBet
2.23
Betano
2.22
10Bet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.2%
@ 2.95-9.4%
Under 2.5
77.8%
@ 1.36+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.10
William Hil
2.90
Betano
2.87
10Bet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lech Poznan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.5%
@ 1.35-7.1%
Under
38.5%
@ 2.97+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Under
1xBet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Lech Poznan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.8%
@ 2.59-11.0%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.44+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.57
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Lech Poznan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 6.10-9.9%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.09+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.40
1xBet
6.20
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Jagiellonia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.8%
@ 1.80-2.5%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.90+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Under
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.82
Jagiellonia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 5.03-3.6%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.13+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Jagiellonia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 13.62-3.4%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.5%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.2%
1.13
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
-
-
-
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.7%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.11
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
1.31
Superbet
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.3%
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.3%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.36
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.5%
1.31
Superbet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.30
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.9%
1.29
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.1%
1.46
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.44
+14.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.44
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.41
+11.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.1%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.7%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.7%
1.49
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
+11.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lech Poznan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh60%
Mikael Ishak33%
Filip Jagiełło25%
Luis Palma20%
Antoni Kozubal20%
Yannick Agnero20%
Robert Gumny0%
Joel Pereira0%
Radosław Murawski0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Daniel Håkans0%
Patrik Wålemark0%
Pablo Rodríguez0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mikael Ishak67%
Joel Pereira20%
Luis Palma20%
Radosław Murawski20%
Antoni Kozubal20%
Yannick Agnero20%
Robert Gumny0%
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
Daniel Håkans0%
Patrik Wålemark0%
Pablo Rodríguez0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luis Palma40%
Pablo Rodríguez40%
Daniel Håkans33%
Patrik Wålemark20%
Robert Gumny0%
Joel Pereira0%
Mikael Ishak0%
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh0%
Radosław Murawski0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
Antoni Kozubal0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Yannick Agnero0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikael Ishak33%
Luis Palma20%
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh20%
Pablo Rodríguez20%
Yannick Agnero20%
Robert Gumny0%
Joel Pereira0%
Radosław Murawski0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
Daniel Håkans0%
Patrik Wålemark0%
Antoni Kozubal0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
Jagiellonia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nik Prelec75%
Youssuf Sylla33%
Jesús Imaz25%
Sergio Lozano25%
Guilherme Montóia25%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Taras Romanczuk0%
Kamil Jóźwiak0%
Kajetan Szmyt0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Norbert Wojtuszek0%
Apostolos Konstantopoulos0%
Bernardo Vital0%
Sławomir Abramowicz0%
Jeremy Agbonifo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guilherme Montóia50%
Kamil Jóźwiak33%
Apostolos Konstantopoulos33%
Bernardo Vital33%
Jeremy Agbonifo33%
Nik Prelec25%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Taras Romanczuk0%
Jesús Imaz0%
Kajetan Szmyt0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Norbert Wojtuszek0%
Sergio Lozano0%
Youssuf Sylla0%
Sławomir Abramowicz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kajetan Szmyt25%
Sergio Lozano25%
Nik Prelec25%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Taras Romanczuk0%
Jesús Imaz0%
Kamil Jóźwiak0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Norbert Wojtuszek0%
Apostolos Konstantopoulos0%
Bernardo Vital0%
Youssuf Sylla0%
Sławomir Abramowicz0%
Guilherme Montóia0%
Jeremy Agbonifo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jesús Imaz50%
Kajetan Szmyt25%
Sergio Lozano25%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Taras Romanczuk0%
Kamil Jóźwiak0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Norbert Wojtuszek0%
Nik Prelec0%
Apostolos Konstantopoulos0%
Bernardo Vital0%
Youssuf Sylla0%
Sławomir Abramowicz0%
Guilherme Montóia0%
Jeremy Agbonifo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Lech Poznan's squad is €28m more valuable than Jagiellonia's (€58m vs €30m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Lech Poznan's attack is €9m more valuable than Jagiellonia's (€21m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Lech Poznan's midfield is €6m more valuable than Jagiellonia's (€9m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Lech Poznan's defence is €13m more valuable than Jagiellonia's (€28m vs €15m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
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Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
Raków Częstochowa