Lech Poznan’s recent unbeaten run and a 3-2 win over Widzew Łódź fuel optimism, while Raków Czestochowa’s 2-5 loss to Jagiellonia suggests a cautious approach. The model favours a home win, with a 50% chance, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 26%. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% probability. Lech’s home form shows an average of 2.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against similarly strong opponents, whereas Raków’s away numbers average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1% (edge 6%), Away under 3.5 goals at 94.9% (edge 3%), Under 6.5 at 94.8% (edge 4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.6% (edge 5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.0% (edge 6%), and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.5% (edge 3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lech Poznan win
49.6%
Avg Implied 57.7% · @ 1.61
Edge
-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Dafabet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
William Hil
1.60
Draw
24.1%
Avg Implied 22.2% · @ 4.17
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.40
Dafabet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.25
Betano
4.25
Raków Częstochowa win
26.4%
Avg Implied 20.1% · @ 4.62
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Pinnacle
4.81
1xBet
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lech Poznan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.97
2.25
1.12
1.93
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
2.33
0.92
2.57
1.14
2.00
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
2.00
0.88
2.12
0.88
1.88
0.88
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raków Częstochowa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.53
1.33
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.87
1.14
1.86
1.25
1.88
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
1.07
1.88
0.88
1.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.2%
@ 1.14+3.9%
Under 1.5
14.8%
@ 4.98-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Under
Pinnacle
5.63
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.1%
@ 1.51+2.6%
Under 2.5
35.9%
@ 2.41-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.45
Betfair
2.45
Marathonbet
2.42
1xBet
2.42
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.1%
@ 2.28+1.0%
Under 3.5
57.9%
@ 1.59-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.60
BetVictor
1.59
Both teams to score
Yes
64.8%
@ 1.55+5.2%
No
35.2%
@ 2.29-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
No
William Hil
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
10Bet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 7.87+5.0%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.51+3.4%
2-0
6.8%@ 8.94+1.8%
1-2
6.7%@ 13.42+3.3%
2-2
6.5%@ 12.43+2.8%
1-0
6.1%@ 8.80+1.0%
3-1
6.1%@ 10.83+1.9%
0-0
4.6%@ 15.63+1.8%
Lech Poznan goals ↓
Raków Częstochowa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.1%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
1
6.1%
11%
6.7%
3.1%
1.1%
2
6.8%
9.4%
6.5%
3.0%
1.0%
3
4.4%
6.1%
4.2%
1.9%
0.7%
4
2.1%
2.9%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lech Poznan goals (down), columns = Raków Częstochowa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Lech Poznan is 2.60 points better than Raków Częstochowa in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Lech Poznan is 0.80 goals better than Raków Częstochowa in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Lech Poznan is 1.80 goals better than Raków Częstochowa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 2.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Lech Poznan is 1.0 percentage points better than Raków Częstochowa in terms of average possession (54% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lech Poznan
For 7.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raków Częstochowa
For 3.6 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 14.4 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lech Poznan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.5
9.8
3.5
3.4
3.5
24.5
24.5
24.6
vs Stronger (2)
5.0
1.0
9.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
18.0
19.0
17.0
vs Similar (19)
10.3
10.0
10.7
3.9
3.5
4.7
26.3
26.6
25.9
vs Weaker (29)
10.4
11.7
9.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
23.8
23.0
24.5
% over line
53%
55%
52%
48%
46%
50%
67%
73%
61%
% under line
47%
45%
48%
52%
54%
50%
33%
27%
39%
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raków Częstochowa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
7.7
8.6
3.8
3.4
4.3
24.5
24.8
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
8.7
8.5
8.9
3.8
3.4
4.2
24.5
24.8
24.2
vs Weaker (26)
7.6
7.0
8.3
3.8
3.4
4.4
24.6
24.8
24.4
% over line
34%
26%
43%
56%
46%
67%
75%
78%
71%
% under line
66%
74%
57%
44%
54%
33%
25%
22%
29%
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
10.7
Wieczysta Kraków
10.4
Pogon Szczecin
10.3
Lech Poznan
10.3
Zaglebie Lubin
10.2
Slask Wroclaw
10.2
Radomiak Radom
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Motor Lublin
10.1
Cracovia Krakow
10.1
Piast Gliwice
10.0
GKS Katowice
9.9
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.4
Widzew Łódź
9.2
Legia Warszawa
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.2
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Motor Lublin
4.8
Raków Częstochowa
4.7
Slask Wroclaw
4.6
Zaglebie Lubin
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.6
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Pogon Szczecin
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Wisla Plock
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.9
Korona Kielce
3.9
Wisla Krakow
3.7
GKS Katowice
3.7
Piast Gliwice
3.6
Wieczysta Kraków
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.9
Wieczysta Kraków
26.6
Jagiellonia
26.6
Widzew Łódź
26.4
Legia Warszawa
25.9
Wisla Krakow
25.7
Korona Kielce
25.6
Cracovia Krakow
25.3
Motor Lublin
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.7
Slask Wroclaw
24.6
Piast Gliwice
24.2
Lech Poznan
24.1
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
GKS Katowice
23.7
Gornik Zabrze
22.8
Wisla Plock
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.0%
@ 1.60-2.6%
Under 9.5
45.0%
@ 2.18+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.3%
@ 1.56+0.6%
Under 3.5
40.7%
@ 2.22-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
Under
Superbet
2.22
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.6%
Under 21.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lech Poznan or Draw
73.6%
Avg Implied 79.8% · @ 1.17
Edge
-6.2%
50%
24%
26%
covers Lech Poznan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Lech Poznan or Raków Częstochowa
75.9%
Avg Implied 78.4% · @ 1.19
Edge
-2.4%
50%
24%
26%
covers Lech Poznan + Raków Częstochowa
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Draw or Raków Częstochowa
50.4%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.23
Edge
+8.6%
50%
24%
26%
covers Draw + Raków Częstochowa
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lech Poznan over/under 0.5
Over
85.5%
@ 1.09+0.3%
Under
14.5%
@ 6.27-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Under
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Lech Poznan over/under 1.5
Over
57.5%
@ 1.52-3.6%
Under
42.5%
@ 2.39+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.53
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
BetVictor
2.45
Bet365
2.38
Lech Poznan over/under 2.5
Over
30.5%
@ 2.62-5.0%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.44+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Lech Poznan over/under 3.5
Over
13.1%
@ 5.10-5.2%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.14+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.10
Betano
4.90
1xBet
4.50
Under
1xBet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5
Over
74.7%
@ 1.39+8.0%
Under
25.3%
@ 2.78-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5
Over
39.9%
@ 2.87+7.5%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.37-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
10Bet
2.95
Unibet
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Under
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
@ 7.04+2.8%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.07-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Raków Częstochowa over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
@ 16.67-0.7%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.01+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lech Poznan, so a minus line means Lech Poznan give that many goals of a start and Raków Częstochowa receive them. At -1, Lech Poznan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lech Poznan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lech Poznan)
Lech Poznan -2
13.5%
@ 4.67-5.6%
Draw -2
15.3%
@ 4.58-4.2%
Raków Częstochowa +2
71.2%
@ 1.45+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Handicap -1 (Lech Poznan)
Lech Poznan -1
28.8%
@ 2.50-6.9%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 3.67-3.7%
Raków Częstochowa +1
50.4%
@ 2.25+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.70
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Away
10Bet
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Handicap +1 (Lech Poznan)
Lech Poznan +1
73.6%
@ 1.18-1.2%
Draw +1
14.5%
@ 5.85-0.6%
Raków Częstochowa -1
11.9%
@ 8.72+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Draw
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.10
Superbet
6.00
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
10Bet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.60
Marathonbet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Lech Poznan)
Lech Poznan +2
88.1%
@ 1.05+0.1%
Draw +2
7.7%
@ 12.00+0.0%
Raków Częstochowa -2
4.2%
@ 21.50-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Draw
Bet365
15.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lech Poznan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.40
1.12
0.44
1.36
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.58
1.71
0.71
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.25
0.75
0.12
1.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raków Częstochowa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.40
0.60
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.29
0.86
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.33
0.50
0.38
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.5%
@ 1.24-0.9%
Under 0.5
26.5%
@ 3.62+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Betfair
3.80
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.9%
@ 2.19-1.5%
Under 1.5
59.1%
@ 1.61+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
William Hil
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 4.82-3.4%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.15+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Betano
4.75
Under
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lech Poznan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.7%
@ 1.54+1.3%
Under
38.3%
@ 2.35-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.50
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.22
Lech Poznan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.1%
@ 3.56-4.9%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.25+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.50
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Lech Poznan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.9%
@ 9.00-4.5%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.30
1xBet
9.20
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.9%
@ 2.33+0.0%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.54-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.32
Under
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.6%
@ 7.78-3.3%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.05+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
7.70
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 30.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lech Poznan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.12
0.69
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.33
0.86
0.43
1.20
0.20
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.62
1.38
0.75
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raków Częstochowa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
1.13
0.73
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
1.07
0.86
1.00
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.73
1.38
0.50
0.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lech Poznan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.3%
@ 1.14+0.8%
Under 0.5
17.7%
@ 5.03-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.0%
@ 1.73-4.5%
Under 1.5
51.0%
@ 1.99+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.78
William Hil
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.4%
@ 3.23-7.2%
Under 2.5
78.6%
@ 1.30+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lech Poznan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.0%
@ 1.37-0.8%
Under
33.0%
@ 2.88+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.34
Under
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.87
Superbet
2.77
Lech Poznan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.5%
@ 2.69-6.0%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.41+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Betano
2.67
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Lech Poznan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.4%
@ 6.27-7.4%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.09+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.20
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.6%
@ 1.93-3.5%
Under
55.4%
@ 1.78+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.3%
@ 5.67-4.0%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.11+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
Superbet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.60
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
@ 15.00-3.7%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.7%
Under 6.5
94.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+1.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
+7.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
-
+3.3%
Under 5.5
88.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+1.4%
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
-
-
-
+0.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.7%
1.11
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+4.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
86.9%
1.14
1xBet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+5.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
85.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+0.3%
Over 1.5
85.2%
1.14
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+3.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
+3.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
-2.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+0.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.9%
1.25
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
+4.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.30
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
+7.2%
Over 2.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.3%
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Under 4.5
76.2%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+0.0%
Home or Away
75.9%
1.19
Betfair
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
-2.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
74.7%
1.39
Unibet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
+8.0%
Home or Draw
73.6%
1.17
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-6.2%
Home +1 handicap
73.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-1.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.5%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-0.9%
Over 21.5 fouls
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.5%
1.41
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
+6.0%
Away +2 handicap
71.2%
1.45
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
+9.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lech Poznan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh60%
Mikael Ishak33%
Filip Jagiełło25%
Luis Palma20%
Antoni Kozubal20%
Yannick Agnero20%
Robert Gumny0%
Joel Pereira0%
Radosław Murawski0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Daniel Håkans0%
Patrik Wålemark0%
Pablo Rodríguez0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mikael Ishak67%
Joel Pereira20%
Luis Palma20%
Radosław Murawski20%
Antoni Kozubal20%
Yannick Agnero20%
Robert Gumny0%
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
Daniel Håkans0%
Patrik Wålemark0%
Pablo Rodríguez0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luis Palma40%
Pablo Rodríguez40%
Daniel Håkans33%
Patrik Wålemark20%
Robert Gumny0%
Joel Pereira0%
Mikael Ishak0%
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh0%
Radosław Murawski0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
Antoni Kozubal0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Yannick Agnero0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikael Ishak33%
Luis Palma20%
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh20%
Pablo Rodríguez20%
Yannick Agnero20%
Robert Gumny0%
Joel Pereira0%
Radosław Murawski0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Filip Jagiełło0%
Daniel Håkans0%
Patrik Wålemark0%
Antoni Kozubal0%
Terry Yegbe0%
Michal Gurgul0%
Wojciech Mońka0%
Raków Częstochowa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mahir Emreli60%
Patryk Makuch40%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby33%
Erick Otieno0%
Fran Tudor0%
Oskar Repka0%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin0%
Jean Carlos Silva0%
Karol Struski0%
Michael Ameyaw0%
Bogdan Racovițan0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Didí Gaucho67%
Fran Tudor33%
Karol Struski33%
Michael Ameyaw25%
Mahir Emreli20%
Bogdan Racovițan20%
Erick Otieno0%
Patryk Makuch0%
Oskar Repka0%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin0%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby0%
Jean Carlos Silva0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mahir Emreli20%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin20%
Jean Carlos Silva20%
Erick Otieno0%
Fran Tudor0%
Patryk Makuch0%
Oskar Repka0%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby0%
Karol Struski0%
Michael Ameyaw0%
Bogdan Racovițan0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mahir Emreli60%
Patryk Makuch20%
Erick Otieno0%
Fran Tudor0%
Oskar Repka0%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin0%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby0%
Jean Carlos Silva0%
Karol Struski0%
Michael Ameyaw0%
Bogdan Racovițan0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Lech Poznan's squad is €25m more valuable than Raków Częstochowa's (€58m vs €33m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Lech Poznan's attack is €12m more valuable than Raków Częstochowa's (€21m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Lech Poznan's midfield is €6m less valuable than Raków Częstochowa's (€9m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Lech Poznan's defence is €19m more valuable than Raków Częstochowa's (€28m vs €9m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
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Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków