Legia Warszawa hosts Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland: Ekstraklasa on August 2nd. The home side has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, drawing 1-1 against Korona Kielce. Zaglebie Lubin, however, is coming off a defeat, losing 1-3 to Legia Warszawa in their last encounter.
The model predicts a home win, with a 51% probability, making it the favourite match result. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring 13.8% of the time. Legia Warszawa has averaged 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded at home, whereas Zaglebie Lubin has averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded away against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, occurring 80.6% of the time, and Over 21.5 fouls, occurring 78.8% of the time. The home win percentage is 51%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 20%.
The win extends Legia Warszawa's unbeaten run to 5 matches, following a 1-1 draw against Korona Kielce last time out. The final score was 3-1 in favour of the home team, confirming the actual result. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 51%. However, it was a tough day for the model's selections, as two of the suggested picks failed to materialize. The model's call for under 3.5 goals was missed, despite having an 80.6% probability, while over 21.5 fouls also failed to occur, with an 78.8% probability.
Legia Warszawa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.13 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 1.20 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.27 | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.44 | 0.89 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
Zaglebie Lubin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.93 | 1.27 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.35 | 1.04 | 1.45 | 0.73 | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Zaglebie Lubin goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Legia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
Legia Warszawa| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 25.9 | 26.0 | 25.9 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 9.5 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 19.5 | 22.0 | 17.0 |
| vs Similar (22) | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.2 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 26.9 | 26.6 | 27.2 |
| % over line | 44% | 52% | 36% | 54% | 64% | 44% | 81% | 81% | 82% |
| % under line | 56% | 48% | 64% | 46% | 36% | 56% | 19% | 19% | 18% |
Zaglebie Lubin| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 24.7 | 25.4 | 24.0 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 10.4 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 27.1 | 28.6 | 25.8 |
| vs Similar (38) | 10.5 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 24.1 | 24.7 | 23.3 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | 5.0 | 5.0 | - | 23.0 | 23.0 | - |
| % over line | 54% | 40% | 70% | 58% | 64% | 52% | 73% | 72% | 74% |
| % under line | 46% | 60% | 30% | 42% | 36% | 48% | 27% | 28% | 26% |
Legia Warszawa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.45 | 0.64 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.56 | 0.33 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
Zaglebie Lubin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.82 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Legia Warszawa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.82 | 0.73 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Zaglebie Lubin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 87.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 80.6% | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.32 | +9.6% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 79.7% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +11.7% | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 76.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70.6% | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.42 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.33 | +4.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 08/12/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 20/07/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/05/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/12/23 | A | 0-3 | |
| 04/02/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 23/07/22 | H | 2-0 |
Legia Warszawa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
Zaglebie Lubin| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.8 | 80% | 40% | 40% | 7.8 | 20% | 2.5 | 0% | 26.4 | 60% | 40 | 12 | 7 | 21 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 52% |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 9.3 | 33% | 6.3 | 67% | 27.7 | 100% | 29 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 3 | Cracovia Krakow | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 13.2 | 100% | 2.6 | 40% | 23.0 | 60% | 33 | 15 | 3 | 15 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.7 | 67% | 3.3 | 33% | 25.0 | 67% | 53 | 21 | 8 | 23 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 58% |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 25% | 3.2 | 25% | 24.2 | 50% | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.0 | 33% | 25.8 | 75% | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 40% |
| 7 | Wisla Krakow | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 40% | 11.2 | 60% | 4.4 | 60% | 25.4 | 80% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 9.5 | 75% | 5.0 | 75% | 25.0 | 100% | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 9 | Widzew Łódź | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 10.8 | 60% | 5.4 | 80% | 27.6 | 100% | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 8.7 | 33% | 3.7 | 33% | 26.0 | 67% | 62 | 43 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | 10.5 | 25% | 3.5 | 25% | 31.8 | 100% | 16 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 12 | Slask Wroclaw | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 20% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.2 | 60% | 23.2 | 80% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 6.2 | 0% | 4.8 | 60% | 23.2 | 60% | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 14 | Piast Gliwice | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4.2 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 11.6 | 40% | 2.2 | 0% | 23.0 | 40% | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 56% |
| 15 | Wisla Plock | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.8 | 75% | 75% | 25% | 11.5 | 75% | 3.5 | 50% | 25.8 | 100% | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 43% |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | 8.0 | 40% | 6.6 | 60% | 29.2 | 100% | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 51% |
| 17 | Wieczysta Kraków | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.8 | 25% | 26.5 | 50% | 12 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | - |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 9.3 | 33% | 2.7 | 33% | 25.0 | 100% | 48 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 54% |