Leiknir R. are the clear underdogs in this League Cup clash, with the model assigning a 75 % probability to an FH hafnarfjordur win. The away side’s higher average goals scored (1.7) versus Leiknir’s 1.0, coupled with FH’s stronger away form, explains the model’s confidence. The expected total of 4.3 goals and the most likely total of 6+ (26 % chance) hint at a high-scoring affair, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-3, a 8.1 % probability, reflecting FH’s offensive edge. Leiknir’s home form shows a modest 1.25 goals conceded, while FH’s away concession rate of 1.4 still favours the visitors. The model’s suggested picks reinforce this narrative: Home under 3.5 goals (96.8 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.4 %), Away over 0.5 goals (95.5 %), Over 1.5 (93.3 %), Under 7.5 (93.0 %), and Away +2 handicap (96.0 %). The remaining selections - Draw or Away (89.5 % miss) and Away +1 handicap (89.5 % miss) - are less certain. The probabilities for the match result itself are 11 % for a home win, 14 % for a draw, and 75 % for an away win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FH hafnarfjordur, was tipped to win with a 75 % probability, but Leiknir R. snatched a 2-1 victory, proving the model’s call wrong. The upset came as Leiknir, after a recent defeat, pushed forward and secured a home win, extending their winless streak into a rare triumph. The model’s selections largely hit: Home under 3.5 goals (96.8 % probability) and Away +2 handicap (96.0 %) both came true, as did Away over 0.5 goals (95.5 %), Over 1.5 (93.3 %), Under 7.5 (93.0 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (88.4 %). However, Draw or Away (89.5 %) and Away +1 handicap (89.5 %) missed. The expected total of 4.3 goals was surpassed, with the most likely scoreline of 1-3 occurring at 8.1 %.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leiknir R. win✓ Hit
10.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur win✗ Miss
75.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leiknir R.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.97
1.27
1.73
1.33
2.20
vs Stronger (22)
1.36
2.18
1.36
1.91
1.36
2.45
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.38
1.00
1.25
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FH hafnarfjordur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.53
1.93
1.07
1.75
1.94
vs Stronger (10)
1.90
2.00
2.00
0.75
1.83
2.83
vs Similar (20)
1.80
1.30
1.90
1.20
1.70
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.3%
Under 1.5
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
80.1%
Under 2.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.1%
Under 3.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-3
8.1%
1-2
7.9%
0-3
6.9%
0-2
6.7%
1-4
6.3%
1-1
5.6%
0-4
5.4%
2-3
4.8%
Leiknir R. goals ↓
FH hafnarfjordur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.9%
3.8%
6.7%
6.9%
5.4%
1
1.1%
5.6%
7.9%
8.1%
6.3%
2
1.0%
3.0%
4.6%
4.8%
3.7%
3
0.4%
1.2%
1.8%
1.9%
1.5%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leiknir R. goals (down), columns = FH hafnarfjordur goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
Leiknir R. is 0.60 points worse than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
Leiknir R. is 0.60 goals better than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of goals scored per game (2.60 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
Leiknir R. is 1.75 goals worse than FH hafnarfjordur in terms of goals conceded per game (4.00 vs 2.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leiknir R. or Draw✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
11%
14%
75%
covers Leiknir R. + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. or FH hafnarfjordur✓ Hit
85.6%
Avg Implied -
11%
14%
75%
covers Leiknir R. + FH hafnarfjordur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FH hafnarfjordur✗ Miss
89.5%
Avg Implied -
11%
14%
75%
covers Draw + FH hafnarfjordur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
95.5%
Under
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
81.7%
Under
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leiknir R., so a minus line means Leiknir R. give that many goals of a start and FH hafnarfjordur receive them. At -1, Leiknir R. must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leiknir R. win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leiknir R.)Actual: FH hafnarfjordur
Leiknir R. -2
1.2%
Draw -2
2.8%
FH hafnarfjordur +2
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Leiknir R.)Actual: Draw
Leiknir R. -1
4.0%
Draw -1
6.6%
FH hafnarfjordur +1
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Leiknir R.)Actual: Leiknir R.
Leiknir R. +1
24.9%
Draw +1
18.1%
FH hafnarfjordur -1
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Leiknir R.)Actual: Leiknir R.
Leiknir R. +2
43.1%
Draw +2
19.5%
FH hafnarfjordur -2
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leiknir R.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.27
0.73
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (22)
0.41
1.18
0.36
1.00
0.45
1.36
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FH hafnarfjordur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.71
0.50
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.67
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.55
0.60
0.60
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leiknir R.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.03
1.00
1.00
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (22)
0.95
1.00
1.00
0.91
0.91
1.09
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.12
1.00
1.25
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FH hafnarfjordur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.83
1.21
0.57
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.17
1.33
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.75
1.30
0.60
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →