Lens is expected to maintain its winning momentum, having come off a 4-0 victory over Lyon. The model predicts a home win, with a 56% chance of success. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, but the expected total goals is 2.8, suggesting a relatively low-scoring match. Lens has been scoring an average of 2.43 goals at home against weaker opponents, while conceding just 0.43. Meanwhile, Auxerre has been scoring 1.12 goals away against stronger opponents, but conceding 1.5.
The model suggests selecting Over 1.5, with a 77.9% chance of success, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 70.9% chance. The home win percentage is 56%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 19%. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 (77.9%), Over 21.5 fouls (70.9%), and the home win (56%).
Results analysis
Lens continued their recent surge, extending a two-game winning streak with a 5-2 triumph over Auxerre. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct, matching the final result. It had assigned a 58 % probability to Lens’s victory. The suggested selections also largely paid off: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3 %, Under 7.5 at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.6 %, Home +2 handicap at 93.4 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.3 %. Only the Under 6.5 goal pick missed, despite a 97.4 % probability. The model’s predictions largely aligned with the match outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lens win✓ Hit
57.9%
Avg Implied 63.5% · @ 1.50
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Dafabet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.50
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.78
Marathonbet
4.70
Dafabet
4.60
Betfair
4.60
Superbet
4.60
Auxerre win✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied 15.5% · @ 6.14
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.47
1xBet
6.45
Unibet
6.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.07
2.33
0.80
2.40
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
2.42
1.26
2.62
1.00
2.27
1.45
vs Weaker (10)
2.50
0.60
2.33
0.33
2.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auxerre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.33
1.07
1.13
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.58
0.83
1.67
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (18)
1.11
1.17
1.22
0.78
1.00
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
@ 1.19-0.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
@ 4.63+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Superbet
4.75
BetVictor
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.62-4.7%
Under 2.5
45.7%
@ 2.32+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.0%
@ 2.51-5.7%
Under 3.5
68.0%
@ 1.51+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.6%
@ 1.71-1.0%
No
46.4%
@ 2.06+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.75
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
No
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 7.91+5.9%
2-0
10.3%@ 7.57+4.3%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.49+3.9%
1-0
9.8%@ 7.70+4.0%
0-0
6.8%@ 13.79+3.6%
3-0
6.5%@ 10.46+2.2%
3-1
6.2%@ 10.44+1.9%
1-2
5.1%@ 16.28+2.3%
Lens goals ↓
Auxerre goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
4.5%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.8%
12%
5.1%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
6.5%
6.2%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.1%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lens goals (down), columns = Auxerre goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Lens is 1.06 points better than Auxerre in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Lens is 0.94 goals better than Auxerre in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Lens is 0.26 goals better than Auxerre in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Lens is 7.2 percentage points better than Auxerre in terms of average possession (51% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lens
For 7.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Auxerre
For 4.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 11.8 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.6
9.8
4.3
3.9
4.6
25.0
25.2
24.8
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
15.0
12.0
18.0
vs Similar (33)
10.8
11.4
10.2
4.4
3.9
4.8
24.5
24.6
24.4
vs Weaker (15)
9.2
9.2
9.1
4.3
4.1
4.6
27.4
28.0
26.7
% over line
50%
52%
48%
64%
52%
76%
68%
72%
64%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
36%
48%
24%
32%
28%
36%
This opponent (Auxerre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auxerre
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.9
9.7
4.6
5.2
4.0
25.8
25.3
26.2
vs Stronger (19)
9.7
10.1
9.3
5.8
6.9
4.8
25.7
24.2
27.0
vs Similar (31)
9.8
9.8
9.9
3.9
4.3
3.5
25.8
25.9
25.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
40%
48%
70%
76%
64%
72%
64%
80%
% under line
56%
60%
52%
30%
24%
36%
28%
36%
20%
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.2
Stade Brestois 29
9.8
Lyon
9.8
Auxerre
9.8
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.5
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lorient
8.8
Estac Troyes
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.5
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.5
Le Mans
27.3
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.8
Lyon
25.4
Toulouse
25.4
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Rennes
24.1
Lille
23.9
Monaco
23.8
Nice
23.8
Strasbourg
23.6
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.1
Paris FC
22.6
Angers
22.5
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.9%
@ 1.75+1.4%
Under 9.5
45.1%
@ 2.01-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Unibet
2.12
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.2%
@ 1.40-9.0%
Under 3.5
42.8%
@ 2.75+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.44
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
Betano
2.77
Superbet
2.75
Unibet
2.50
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.9%
Under 21.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lens or Draw✓ Hit
81.7%
Avg Implied 83.9% · @ 1.13
Edge
-2.2%
58%
24%
18%
covers Lens + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Lens or Auxerre✓ Hit
75.5%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.20
Edge
-3.6%
58%
24%
18%
covers Lens + Auxerre
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.21
Draw or Auxerre✗ Miss
42.8%
Avg Implied 37.0% · @ 2.55
Edge
+5.8%
58%
24%
18%
covers Draw + Auxerre
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.67
Unibet
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.60
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lens over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.5%
@ 1.08-1.6%
Under
15.5%
@ 6.69+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Under
Betfair
8.00
888Sport
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Lens over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.6%
@ 1.50-6.6%
Under
44.4%
@ 2.48+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.61
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.52
Unibet
2.50
Lens over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
28.6%
@ 2.58-7.5%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.46+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Lens over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
11.9%
@ 5.10-6.4%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.14+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
888Sport
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Auxerre over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.2%
@ 1.53+1.4%
Under
37.8%
@ 2.37-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.47
Superbet
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Auxerre over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.4%
@ 3.65-0.3%
Under
74.6%
@ 1.26+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.74
Under
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Auxerre over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 10.22-1.7%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Unibet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Auxerre over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 27.33-1.8%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
28.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lens, so a minus line means Lens give that many goals of a start and Auxerre receive them. At -1, Lens must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lens win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lens)Actual: Lens
Lens -2
16.0%
@ 4.21-5.4%
Draw -2
17.9%
@ 4.38-2.7%
Auxerre +2
66.1%
@ 1.56+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Away
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Handicap -1 (Lens)Actual: Lens
Lens -1
33.9%
@ 2.29-5.6%
Draw -1
23.3%
@ 3.58-2.0%
Auxerre +1
42.8%
@ 2.56+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
Betfair
2.25
Draw
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
2.68
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Bet365
2.50
Handicap +1 (Lens)Actual: Lens
Lens +1
81.7%
@ 1.12+2.0%
Draw +1
11.6%
@ 6.99-1.2%
Auxerre -1
6.6%
@ 12.07-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
6.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Handicap +2 (Lens)Actual: Lens
Lens +2
93.4%
@ 1.02+0.2%
Draw +2
4.9%
@ 19.00-0.1%
Auxerre -2
1.8%
@ 51.00-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
Away
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.07
0.40
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.74
1.12
0.62
0.91
0.82
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.20
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auxerre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.61
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.28-0.8%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 3.46+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.2%
@ 2.35-3.6%
Under 1.5
63.8%
@ 1.56+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Unibet
2.38
Under
Superbet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.7%
@ 5.48-4.3%
Under 2.5
87.3%
@ 1.12+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lens over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.53-4.2%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.38+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.48
1xBet
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Unibet
2.33
Lens over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.1%
@ 3.54-6.0%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.25+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.40
Under
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Lens over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 9.06-5.7%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
8.80
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Auxerre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.8%
@ 2.67-1.0%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.43+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.88
Unibet
2.70
Betano
2.67
Marathonbet
2.65
10Bet
2.65
Under
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Auxerre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 9.94-2.6%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
10.70
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Auxerre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 27.50-2.9%
Under
99.3%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.50
1.27
0.40
1.47
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.42
0.53
1.50
0.38
1.36
0.64
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.40
1.17
0.33
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auxerre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.67
0.53
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.08
0.67
1.00
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.56
0.67
0.22
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.3%
Under 0.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.6%
Under 1.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
20.2%
Under 2.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lens over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auxerre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auxerre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auxerre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.2%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
88.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.12
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.2%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+5.3%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
81.7%
1.13
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.7%
1.12
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.9%
1.25
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.8%
1.19
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.19
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.1%
1.46
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Unibet
1.41
-
+14.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.6%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.14
-
-
-
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.5%
1.20
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.21
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.6%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.28
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.4%
1.46
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lens · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Odsonne Édouard35%
Florian Thauvin35%
Allan Saint-Maximin31%
Wesley Saïd26%
Abdallah Sima22%
Rayan Fofana17%
Adrien Thomasson11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Amadou Haidara10%
Saud Abdulhamid10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Matthieu Udol8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Malang Sarr0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nidal Čelik33%
Adrien Thomasson31%
Deiver Machado20%
Jonathan Gradit20%
Ruben Aguilar17%
Arthur Masuaku17%
Morgan Guilavogui17%
Florian Thauvin16%
Saud Abdulhamid16%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Mamadou Sangare15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Abdallah Sima11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Malang Sarr10%
Matthieu Udol10%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Anthony Bermont9%
Wesley Saïd9%
Robin Risser8%
Samson Baidoo8%
Florian Sotoca7%
Odsonne Édouard6%
Amadou Haidara0%
Fode Sylla0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Florian Thauvin22%
Matthieu Udol20%
Adrien Thomasson19%
Saud Abdulhamid19%
Andrija Bulatovic18%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Mamadou Sangare12%
Abdallah Sima11%
Amadou Haidara10%
Odsonne Édouard9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Wesley Saïd6%
Florian Sotoca3%
Robin Risser3%
Malang Sarr3%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Morgan Guilavogui0%
Ismaelo Ganiou0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Wesley Saïd32%
Allan Saint-Maximin23%
Florian Thauvin22%
Deiver Machado20%
Odsonne Édouard18%
Matthieu Udol15%
Abdallah Sima11%
Rayan Fofana10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Adrien Thomasson8%
Ismaelo Ganiou7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Malang Sarr5%
Andrija Bulatovic5%
Samson Baidoo4%
Saud Abdulhamid3%
Amadou Haidara0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Ruben Aguilar0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
Auxerre · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lassine Sinayoko31%
Bryan Okoh15%
Danny Namaso10%
Francisco Sierralta9%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Kévin Danois9%
Sinaly Diomandé8%
Sékou Mara7%
Assane Dioussé6%
Marvin Senaya4%
Josué Casimir3%
Gideon Mensah0%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Romain Faivre0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Clement Akpa0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Danny Namaso30%
Gideon Mensah26%
Lassine Sinayoko25%
Elisha Owusu24%
Rudy Matondo24%
Marvin Senaya23%
Assane Dioussé19%
Francisco Sierralta18%
Josué Casimir16%
Bryan Okoh15%
Sinaly Diomandé12%
Kévin Danois12%
Clement Akpa12%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Lamine Sy8%
Lasso Coulibaly6%
Fredrik Oppegård4%
Donovan Léon3%
Romain Faivre0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Sékou Mara0%
Théo De Percin0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ibrahim Osman13%
Lassine Sinayoko12%
Danny Namaso10%
Romain Faivre10%
Sinaly Diomandé8%
Sékou Mara7%
Naouirou Ahamada7%
Gideon Mensah6%
Kévin Danois3%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Assane Dioussé0%
Francisco Sierralta0%
Bryan Okoh0%
Josué Casimir0%
Clement Akpa0%
Marvin Senaya0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Oussama El Azzouzi0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lassine Sinayoko41%
Danny Namaso13%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Sékou Mara7%
Ibrahim Osman7%
Gideon Mensah0%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Assane Dioussé0%
Francisco Sierralta0%
Romain Faivre0%
Bryan Okoh0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Sinaly Diomandé0%
Josué Casimir0%
Clement Akpa0%
Marvin Senaya0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Kévin Danois0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Lens's squad is €104m more valuable than Auxerre's (€187m vs €84m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Lens's attack is €29m more valuable than Auxerre's (€52m vs €23m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Lens's midfield is €4m less valuable than Auxerre's (€24m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Lens's defence is €79m more valuable than Auxerre's (€112m vs €33m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice