Lens are tipped to win, with a 57% chance of triumph, a 25% chance of a draw and a 18% chance of a Toulouse victory. The model expects 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.8% probability. Lens, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded, while Toulouse, on the road, averages 1.45 scored and 1.27 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Under 5.5 (93.6%), Home +2 handicap (93.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.5%) and Under 4.5 (85.0%). Lens have been on a three-game winning streak, recently beating Auxerre 5-2, whereas Toulouse return from a 0-2 loss to Lyon.
Results analysis
Lens continued their 3-game winning run, beating Toulouse 4-1 to confirm the model’s pick of a home win, which was correct. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 57% probability, and the game finished with the expected result. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (99.2%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%) hit, Under 6.5 (97.6%) hit, Under 5.5 (93.6%) hit, Home +2 handicap (93.5%) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (92.9%) hit, while Home under 3.5 goals (88.5%) missed and Under 4.5 (85.0%) also missed. The final score of 4-1 matched the model’s expectation of a decisive home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lens winâś“ Hit
57.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Toulouse winâś— Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Lens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.03
2.43
0.71
1.88
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
2.11
1.11
2.33
0.89
1.89
1.33
vs Weaker (11)
2.36
0.82
2.60
0.40
2.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.27
1.21
1.07
1.44
1.44
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
1.40
1.80
vs Similar (22)
1.45
1.09
1.45
0.91
1.45
1.27
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-0
10.4%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
7.3%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.1%
Lens goals ↓
Toulouse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
4.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
1
10%
12%
5.1%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
6.4%
6.0%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lens goals (down), columns = Toulouse goals (across).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lens or Drawâś“ Hit
81.9%
Avg Implied -
57%
25%
18%
covers Lens + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lens or Toulouseâś“ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied -
57%
25%
18%
covers Lens + Toulouse
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Toulouseâś— Miss
42.8%
Avg Implied -
57%
25%
18%
covers Draw + Toulouse
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lens over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.1%
Under
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lens, so a minus line means Lens give that many goals of a start and Toulouse receive them. At -1, Lens must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lens win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lens)Actual: Lens
Lens -2
15.8%
Draw -2
17.9%
Toulouse +2
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lens)Actual: Lens
Lens -1
33.7%
Draw -1
23.5%
Toulouse +1
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lens)Actual: Lens
Lens +1
81.9%
Draw +1
11.6%
Toulouse -1
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lens)Actual: Lens
Lens +2
93.5%
Draw +2
4.8%
Toulouse -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.07
0.36
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.61
0.89
0.56
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.18
1.40
0.00
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.43
0.36
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.41
0.45
0.27
0.91
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lens over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.36
0.36
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.28
0.50
1.44
0.33
1.11
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.64
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.79
0.71
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.68
1.00
0.64
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lens over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 4.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home or Draw
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home or Away
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
đź’° 13. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
MON (24)
€29m
LM (26)
€24m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
BOU (23)
€8m
BAS (19)
€7m
SOC (20)
€7m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
ORL (16)
€4m
CON (18)
€3m
CHA (5)
€1m
Lens's squad is €73m more valuable than Toulouse's (€187m vs €115m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
SE (10)
€54m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
LM (6)
€4m
BAS (9)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
CAE (8)
€2m
ORL (6)
€2m
CON (7)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
CHA (1)
€0m
Lens's attack is €22m more valuable than Toulouse's (€52m vs €30m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
LM (8)
€5m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
ANN (6)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
BAS (3)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
CON (5)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
ORL (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
CHA (2)
€0m
Lens's midfield is €16m less valuable than Toulouse's (€24m vs €39m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
LH (10)
€23m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
AMI (8)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
BAS (7)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
ORL (6)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
CHA (2)
€0m
Lens's defence is €66m more valuable than Toulouse's (€112m vs €46m).
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