This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.27
1.07
1.00
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.50
0.80
1.40
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (19)
1.00
1.11
1.20
0.80
0.78
1.44
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.99-0.9%
Under 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.78+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.5%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
11.6%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
3-0
6.6%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.4%
Leyton Orient goals ↓
Burton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
5.5%
2.7%
0.7%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.6%
1.3%
0.3%
2
12%
9.5%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
6.6%
5.4%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.8%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leyton Orient goals (down), columns = Burton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Leyton Orient is 0.41 points better than Burton in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Leyton Orient is 0.30 goals better than Burton in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Leyton Orient is 0.26 goals better than Burton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Leyton Orient is 11.5 percentage points better than Burton in terms of average possession (52% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leyton Orient
For 5.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 7.0 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
For 2.9 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 10.1 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leyton Orient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.6
9.0
4.2
3.9
4.5
20.3
20.8
19.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.9
10.9
9.1
4.1
3.6
4.5
19.5
20.1
18.9
vs Weaker (13)
9.2
9.7
8.7
4.5
4.4
4.7
22.8
22.6
23.0
% over line
50%
58%
42%
66%
58%
73%
48%
50%
46%
% under line
50%
42%
58%
34%
42%
27%
52%
50%
54%
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.2
8.4
3.7
3.8
3.5
20.7
21.4
20.1
vs Stronger (18)
9.7
9.9
9.5
3.3
3.8
3.0
20.5
20.5
20.5
vs Similar (31)
9.1
10.4
7.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
21.0
21.8
20.1
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
-
9.0
4.0
-
4.0
17.0
-
17.0
% over line
46%
54%
38%
50%
46%
54%
40%
46%
35%
% under line
54%
46%
62%
50%
54%
46%
60%
54%
65%
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Charlton
11.3
Derby
11.1
Fleetwood Town
11.1
Wycombe
11.0
Peterboro
10.9
Port Vale
10.9
Exeter
10.8
Bristol Rvs
10.7
Oxford
10.6
Bolton
10.5
Portsmouth
10.4
Reading
10.2
Barnsley
10.0
Shrewsbury
10.0
Leyton Orient
9.7
Cambridge
9.7
Carlisle
9.6
Cheltenham
9.6
Blackpool
9.5
Stevenage
9.4
Lincoln
9.4
Burton
9.3
Wigan
9.2
Northampton
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
5.2
Portsmouth
4.9
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Fleetwood Town
4.5
Port Vale
4.4
Stevenage
4.4
Oxford
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Lincoln
4.3
Cheltenham
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.2
Cambridge
4.1
Charlton
4.1
Bolton
4.0
Blackpool
4.0
Barnsley
4.0
Exeter
4.0
Northampton
3.9
Carlisle
3.9
Wycombe
3.9
Reading
3.8
Peterboro
3.8
Derby
3.8
Burton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
25.0
Wigan
24.2
Portsmouth
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.1
Cambridge
22.6
Fleetwood Town
22.6
Oxford
22.4
Bolton
22.3
Blackpool
22.2
Cheltenham
22.2
Port Vale
21.5
Lincoln
21.5
Shrewsbury
21.5
Northampton
21.5
Reading
21.3
Wycombe
21.2
Exeter
20.9
Charlton
20.8
Peterboro
20.8
Burton
20.7
Barnsley
20.7
Derby
20.6
Carlisle
20.6
Leyton Orient
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.7%
Under 9.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.0%
Under 3.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
40.2%
Under 21.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leyton Orient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.57
0.64
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.60
0.42
0.67
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.50
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.53
0.80
0.40
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leyton Orient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.60
0.75
0.67
0.77
0.54
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.47
0.60
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.58
0.40
0.40
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leyton Orient · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tony Springett33%
Yusuf Akhamrich33%
Nicholas Oyekunle33%
Idris El Mizouni25%
Demetri Mitchell25%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
Jaze Kabia0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Fin Stevens0%
Charlie Wellens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Zech Obiero0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Hayden75%
Fin Stevens50%
Tony Springett33%
Theo Archibald25%
Idris El Mizouni25%
Jaze Kabia25%
Demetri Mitchell0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Charlie Wellens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Zech Obiero0%
Yusuf Akhamrich0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
Nicholas Oyekunle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tony Springett33%
Charlie Wellens33%
Jaze Kabia25%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
Idris El Mizouni0%
Demetri Mitchell0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Fin Stevens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Zech Obiero0%
Yusuf Akhamrich0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
Nicholas Oyekunle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Charlie Wellens33%
Demetri Mitchell25%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
Idris El Mizouni0%
Jaze Kabia0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Fin Stevens0%
Tony Springett0%
Noah Phillips0%
Zech Obiero0%
Yusuf Akhamrich0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
Nicholas Oyekunle0%
Burton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kgagelo Chauke33%
Finn Delap33%
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Jack Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
Sulyman Krubally67%
George Evans33%
Kyran Lofthouse33%
Jack Armer33%
Finn Delap33%
Corey Addai0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse33%
Jack Armer33%
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Jack Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Leyton Orient's squad is €5m more valuable than Burton's (€10m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Leyton Orient's attack is €3m more valuable than Burton's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Leyton Orient's midfield is €2m more valuable than Burton's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Leyton Orient's defence is €1m more valuable than Burton's (€3m vs €2m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Barnsley
Lincoln
Blackpool
Stevenage
Wigan
Wycombe
Exeter
Northampton
Reading
Bristol Rvs
Charlton
Cambridge
Shrewsbury
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
Port Vale
Carlisle