Lida’s recent run of five matches, ending with a win, suggests a team eager to keep the momentum, but the model still favours a Minsk II victory, with a 40% chance against Lida’s 36% and a 24% draw. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.6% probability. Lida averages 2.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Minsk II, on the road, nets 1.9 and concedes 1.0 against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.7%), Under 6.5 (94.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.9%), Under 5.5 (86.9%), Over 1.5 (86.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (82.7%) and Away +2 handicap (81.6%). These picks reflect a cautious approach to the total while acknowledging Minsk II’s edge in the match outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lida win
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minsk II win
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lida
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.33
2.60
1.13
2.00
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
2.32
1.36
2.73
1.09
1.91
1.64
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
1.33
2.25
1.25
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.57
0.86
1.81
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.00
1.00
0.91
1.82
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
2.71
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.2%
Under 2.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
7.0%
2-0
4.8%
0-2
4.8%
1-0
4.7%
3-1
4.7%
Lida goals ↓
Minsk II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.7%
4.8%
2.7%
1.2%
1
4.7%
11%
8.2%
4.6%
2.0%
2
4.8%
8.2%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.7%
4.7%
4.0%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lida goals (down), columns = Minsk II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Lida is 0.29 points better than Minsk II in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Lida is 0.43 goals better than Minsk II in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Lida is 0.71 goals worse than Minsk II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lida or Draw
62.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
38%
covers Lida + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lida or Minsk II
75.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
38%
covers Lida + Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Minsk II
62.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
38%
covers Draw + Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lida over/under 0.5
Over
81.9%
Under
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5
Over
50.9%
Under
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 0.5
Over
81.7%
Under
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 3.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lida, so a minus line means Lida give that many goals of a start and Minsk II receive them. At -1, Lida must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lida win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lida)
Lida -2
8.3%
Draw -2
11.6%
Minsk II +2
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lida)
Lida -1
19.9%
Draw -1
18.0%
Minsk II +1
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lida)
Lida +1
62.4%
Draw +1
17.9%
Minsk II -1
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lida)
Lida +2
80.3%
Draw +2
11.5%
Minsk II -2
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lida
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.27
0.53
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.50
1.45
0.55
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
0.75
0.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.71
0.36
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.36
0.45
0.27
0.91
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.86
2.50
1.00
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.9%
Under 0.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.9%
Under 1.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.9%
Under 2.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lida over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lida
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.80
1.33
0.60
1.20
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.86
1.27
0.55
1.18
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.67
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.14
2.50
0.00
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.9%
Under 0.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.8%
Under 1.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.5%
Under 2.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lida over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Lida and Minsk II have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Lida and Minsk II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Lida and Minsk II have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Lida and Minsk II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II