The upcoming match between Lida and Niva in the Belarus: 1. Division is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.8 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 9%. Recent form suggests Niva is on a 5-game winning run, while Lida is coming off a defeat. Niva's recent form against Shakhter Soligorsk resulted in a 6-2 win, and they are averaging 2 goals scored and 1.44 conceded away from home against weaker opponents.
Lida, on the other hand, has been averaging 7 goals scored and 0 conceded at home against stronger opponents. The model's selection for the match result is an away win, with a probability of 44%. The probabilities for the match result are 33% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 44% for an away win.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a probability of 89.7%, Over 2.5 with a probability of 72.5%, and BTTS Yes with a probability of 72.4%. The most likely total goals is 3. The home win percentage is 33%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 44%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Niva, failed to deliver, with Lida snatching a 3-2 victory. The model had tipped an away win with a 44 % probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The upset followed Lida’s recent run of five matches (WLWWW) and their last win over Niva, while Niva had come off a defeat. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.7 %, Under 7.5 hit at 96.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.5 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.0 %, Under 6.5 hit at 91.3 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 90.0 %, and Over 1.5 hit at 89.7 %. The only miss was Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.2 %.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lida win✓ Hit
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Niva win✗ Miss
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lida
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.37
2.53
1.13
1.87
1.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
2.17
1.39
2.64
1.09
1.75
1.67
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
1.33
2.25
1.25
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.67
1.87
1.67
2.27
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.88
1.88
1.85
1.69
1.91
2.09
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
0.83
2.00
1.50
3.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.7%
Under 1.5
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.5%
Under 2.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 3.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.4%
No
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.0%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
7.2%
2-1
7.1%
1-3
5.5%
2-3
4.8%
0-2
4.7%
3-2 ✓
4.2%
Lida goals ↓
Niva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
3.9%
4.7%
3.2%
1.6%
1
3.2%
9.0%
8.2%
5.5%
2.8%
2
3.5%
7.1%
7.2%
4.8%
2.4%
3
2.1%
4.2%
4.2%
2.8%
1.4%
4
0.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.2%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lida goals (down), columns = Niva goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.75
Niva
2.62
Lida
2.14
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Minsk II
1.62
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
BATE II
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Lida is 0.48 points worse than Niva in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 2.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.25
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.50
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.88
Volna
1.75
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
BATE II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Lida is 1.11 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 3.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.38
Uni Minsk
0.57
FC Slutsk
1.00
Smorgon
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Niva
1.38
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.12
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Lida is 0.34 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lida or Draw✓ Hit
56.1%
Avg Implied -
33%
23%
44%
covers Lida + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lida or Niva✓ Hit
77.1%
Avg Implied -
33%
23%
44%
covers Lida + Niva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Niva✗ Miss
66.8%
Avg Implied -
33%
23%
44%
covers Draw + Niva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lida over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.5%
Under
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.1%
Under
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
25.5%
Under
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lida, so a minus line means Lida give that many goals of a start and Niva receive them. At -1, Lida must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lida win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lida)Actual: Niva
Lida -2
7.2%
Draw -2
10.0%
Niva +2
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lida)Actual: Draw
Lida -1
17.2%
Draw -1
16.0%
Niva +1
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lida)Actual: Lida
Lida +1
56.1%
Draw +1
18.6%
Niva -1
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lida)Actual: Lida
Lida +2
74.8%
Draw +2
13.4%
Niva -2
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lida
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
1.07
0.53
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.48
1.18
0.55
0.67
0.42
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
0.75
0.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
0.73
0.67
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.92
0.85
0.69
0.91
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.1%
Under 0.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.7%
Under 1.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.7%
Under 2.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lida over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.1%
Under
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lida
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.87
1.47
0.60
1.13
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
0.91
1.45
0.55
1.08
1.25
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.67
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Niva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.87
1.13
1.00
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.96
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.2%
Under 0.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.2%
Under 1.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.3%
Under 2.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lida over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.4%
Under
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Lida and Niva have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Lida and Niva have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Lida and Niva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Lida and Niva have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →