The contest between Liège and Dender is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. The probabilities are 37% for Liège, 30% for a draw, and 34% for Dender. The expected total goals sit at 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals, a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.1% probability. Liège, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages 1.85 goals scored and 1.23 conceded, while Dender, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (98.6% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5% with a 4% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (95.9% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Dender snatched a 2-1 victory, overturning Liège’s pre-match favourite status. The model had tipped a home win with a 37% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away win. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.5% and Home under 3.5 goals at 95.9%. Liège’s recent form shows a string of losses, while Dender’s two-game winning run carried them to the win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Liège win✗ Miss
36.7%
Avg Implied 33.3% · @ 2.74
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.98
Dafabet
2.85
Betano
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.37
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.56
Dafabet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
Bet365
3.40
Dender win✓ Hit
33.7%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.30
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.43
Superbet
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Dafabet
2.39
Betano
2.32
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Liège
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.73
1.20
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.42
1.85
1.23
1.00
1.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dender
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.70
1.25
2.00
0.93
1.36
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.83
1.12
2.12
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.61
1.38
1.88
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
@ 1.22-3.9%
Under 1.5
27.7%
@ 3.90+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.21
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
BetVictor
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.3%
@ 1.72-8.7%
Under 2.5
54.7%
@ 2.02+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.0%
@ 2.81-9.1%
Under 3.5
76.0%
@ 1.39+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
BetVictor
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.84
Under
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.9%
@ 1.59-6.1%
No
48.1%
@ 2.20+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.60
No
Betfair
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%@ 5.97+6.9%
0-0
9.6%@ 10.77+5.6%
1-0
9.3%@ 9.22+4.6%
0-1
8.8%@ 8.31+3.6%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.91+3.3%
1-2 ✓
7.8%@ 8.18+2.5%
2-0
6.8%@ 13.55+3.6%
0-2
6.1%@ 11.15+2.2%
Liège goals ↓
Dender goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
8.8%
6.1%
2.5%
0.7%
1
9.3%
14%
7.8%
3.1%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.2%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.5%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Liège goals (down), columns = Dender goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beerschot VA
2.00
Dender
1.77
Liège
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
Francs Borains
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
1.01
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
KRC Genk II
0.97
Excelsior Virton
0.95
Club Brugge II
0.66
Liège is 0.12 points worse than Dender in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 1.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dender
1.82
Beerschot VA
1.62
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Patro Eisden
1.38
Liège
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KRC Genk II
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
1.04
Club Brugge II
1.03
Francs Borains
1.03
Excelsior Virton
0.97
Liège is 0.44 goals worse than Dender in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beerschot VA
0.97
Dender
1.09
AS Eupen
1.12
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
Club Brugge II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Sporting Hasselt
1.92
Excelsior Virton
2.05
Liège is 0.12 goals worse than Dender in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Liège
For 4.9 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.4 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dender
For 4.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 8.5 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liège
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.3
3.0
3.0
2.9
24.3
25.1
23.7
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.3
10.1
10.5
3.1
3.2
3.0
24.0
25.2
23.1
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
13.5
6.0
2.0
2.3
1.5
27.7
24.0
35.0
% over line
50%
47%
53%
46%
50%
42%
64%
65%
63%
% under line
50%
53%
47%
54%
50%
58%
36%
35%
37%
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dender
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.8
10.3
3.1
2.6
3.6
21.5
21.5
21.5
vs Stronger (21)
9.3
9.0
9.5
2.8
2.2
3.5
20.9
19.3
22.3
vs Similar (28)
9.8
8.6
11.0
3.4
3.1
3.6
22.0
23.1
20.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
32%
61%
42%
38%
46%
49%
50%
48%
% under line
53%
68%
39%
58%
62%
54%
51%
50%
52%
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.5
Beerschot VA
10.3
KRC Genk II
10.2
Francs Borains
9.7
RSC Anderlecht II
9.7
Dender
9.6
Club Brugge II
9.5
AS Eupen
9.5
KAA Gent II
9.5
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
Excelsior Virton
9.0
Patro Eisden
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
Liège
4.6
RSC Anderlecht II
4.5
Club Brugge II
4.3
KAA Gent II
4.0
KRC Genk II
3.7
Dender
3.4
Excelsior Virton
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.2
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.2
Club Brugge II
26.9
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.3
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
24.8
Beerschot VA
24.3
Dender
21.2
Excelsior Virton
13.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.2%
@ 1.74-0.1%
Under 9.5
46.8%
@ 1.98+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.77
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Under
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.6%
Under 3.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.0%
Under 21.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Liège or Draw✗ Miss
66.3%
Avg Implied 60.6% · @ 1.52
Edge
+5.7%
37%
30%
34%
covers Liège + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
BetVictor
1.53
Liège or Dender✓ Hit
70.4%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.7%
37%
30%
34%
covers Liège + Dender
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Draw or Dender✓ Hit
63.3%
Avg Implied 66.4% · @ 1.39
Edge
-3.1%
37%
30%
34%
covers Draw + Dender
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Liège over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.1%
@ 1.27-0.8%
Under
27.9%
@ 3.42+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.51
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Liège over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.5%
@ 2.36-2.9%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.53+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Under
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.55
BetVictor
1.53
Unibet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Liège over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 5.29-3.7%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.11+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.55
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Liège over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 12.38-3.6%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Dender over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.2%
@ 1.21-5.9%
Under
29.8%
@ 3.88+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.31
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Betano
3.80
Dender over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.2%
@ 2.12-9.8%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.66+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
Dender over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 4.57-7.9%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.16+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Superbet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Dender over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 10.75-5.4%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.04+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Liège, so a minus line means Liège give that many goals of a start and Dender receive them. At -1, Liège must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Liège win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Liège)Actual: Dender
Liège -2
5.8%
@ 10.07-2.9%
Draw -2
11.0%
@ 6.60-2.2%
Dender +2
83.2%
@ 1.12+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.70
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Liège)Actual: Dender
Liège -1
16.8%
@ 5.23-0.3%
Draw -1
19.9%
@ 4.33-0.7%
Dender +1
63.3%
@ 1.44+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.90
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Betfair
1.53
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.34
Handicap +1 (Liège)Actual: Draw
Liège +1
66.3%
@ 1.53+8.1%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 4.12-2.8%
Dender -1
14.8%
@ 4.45-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.49
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Handicap +2 (Liège)Actual: Liège
Liège +2
85.2%
@ 1.16+9.6%
Draw +2
9.9%
@ 6.00-4.7%
Dender -2
4.9%
@ 8.95-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Away
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
5.85
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Liège
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
1.07
0.60
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.77
1.08
0.69
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dender
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.88
0.88
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.00
0.88
1.25
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.67
0.88
0.50
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.4%
@ 1.32-4.8%
Under 0.5
34.6%
@ 3.11+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.29
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.12
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
29.0%
@ 2.52-7.7%
Under 1.5
71.0%
@ 1.46+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.6%
@ 6.14-6.5%
Under 2.5
91.4%
@ 1.09+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.15
William Hil
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Liège over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.9%
@ 2.04-5.5%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.69+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Under
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Liège over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 6.59-4.4%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.07+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.10
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Liège over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 16.88-3.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Dender over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.0%
@ 1.91-4.3%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.79+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Dender over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 5.74-6.5%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.09+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.05
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Dender over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 14.62-5.2%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Liège
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.65
0.77
0.54
0.46
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dender
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.38
1.12
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.25
0.88
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.94
0.50
1.38
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.7%
@ 1.19-2.0%
Under 0.5
24.3%
@ 4.15+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.25
Superbet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.3%
@ 1.95-5.1%
Under 1.5
57.7%
@ 1.76+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Under
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.2%
@ 3.90-7.3%
Under 2.5
83.8%
@ 1.21+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Liège over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.1%
@ 1.74-3.9%
Under
50.9%
@ 1.97+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Liège over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 4.65-9.7%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.15+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Liège over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 11.00-5.9%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Dender over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.2%
@ 1.65-1.0%
Under
44.8%
@ 2.11+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.59
Under
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Dender over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 4.06-5.7%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.20+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.00
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Dender over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 10.12-5.8%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.7%
1.16
Betano
1.20
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.3%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
-
-
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.20
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.0%
1.39
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.19
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.3%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
1.27
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.0%
1.46
Pinnacle
1.50
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.6%
1.37
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.34
-
-
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.4%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.2%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.21
-5.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Liège · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Frederic Soelle Soelle33%
Simon Paulet25%
Oumar Diouf20%
Kylian Hazard17%
Alexis Lefebvre14%
Alexis De Sart12%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa8%
Kays Ruiz-Atil8%
Lucca Lucker7%
Kevin Shkurti7%
Jonathan D'Ostilio6%
Abian Arslan6%
Damien Mouchamps6%
Benoit Bruggeman5%
Reno Wilmots0%
Victor Corneillie0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Eric N'jo0%
Stephen Reynaerts0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordan Bustin45%
Oumar Diouf30%
Reno Wilmots26%
Jonathan D'Ostilio25%
Stephen Reynaerts25%
Kevin Shkurti21%
Alexis Lefebvre19%
Kays Ruiz-Atil15%
Victor Corneillie14%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa8%
Simon Paulet8%
Martin Wasinski8%
Abian Arslan6%
Alexis De Sart6%
Damien Mouchamps6%
Kylian Hazard0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Benoit Bruggeman0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Eric N'jo0%
Frederic Soelle Soelle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Wasinski21%
Benoit Bruggeman15%
Eric N'jo14%
Jonathan D'Ostilio12%
Kylian Hazard11%
Oumar Diouf10%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa8%
Simon Paulet8%
Kays Ruiz-Atil8%
Alexis De Sart6%
Reno Wilmots4%
Damien Mouchamps0%
Victor Corneillie0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Abian Arslan0%
Frederic Soelle Soelle0%
Stephen Reynaerts0%
Kevin Shkurti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Frederic Soelle Soelle22%
Oumar Diouf20%
Kylian Hazard17%
Kays Ruiz-Atil15%
Benoit Bruggeman15%
Alexis Lefebvre10%
Reno Wilmots9%
Simon Paulet8%
Alexis De Sart0%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa0%
Damien Mouchamps0%
Victor Corneillie0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jonathan D'Ostilio0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Abian Arslan0%
Eric N'jo0%
Stephen Reynaerts0%
Kevin Shkurti0%
Dender · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruny Nsimba30%
David Toshevski15%
Roman Kvet15%
David Hrnčár11%
Mohamed Berte10%
Jordan Attah Kadiri8%
Desmond Acquah8%
Noah Mbamba6%
Ragnar Oratmangoen6%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh5%
Bryan Goncalves4%
Fabio Ferraro3%
Malcolm Viltard3%
Luc Marijnissen3%
Nathan Rodes0%
Michael Verrips0%
Guillaume Dietsch0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni0%
Kobe Cools0%
Dion Moise Sahi0%
Luc De Fougerolles0%
Krzysztof Koton0%
Benjamin Fredrick0%
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui0%
Bo De Kerf0%
Amine Daali0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aurélien Scheidler25%
Joedrick Pupe25%
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui25%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh24%
Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni23%
Luc De Fougerolles21%
Malcolm Viltard19%
David Toshevski19%
Luc Marijnissen19%
Bryan Goncalves18%
Fabio Ferraro17%
Jordan Attah Kadiri15%
Roman Kvet15%
Benjamin Fredrick14%
Amine Daali14%
Noah Mbamba11%
Kobe Cools11%
Bruny Nsimba10%
Bo De Kerf10%
Desmond Acquah8%
Krzysztof Koton8%
Guillaume Dietsch7%
Gauthier Gallon7%
Mohamed Berte7%
Ragnar Oratmangoen6%
David Hrnčár6%
Nathan Rodes3%
Michael Verrips0%
Dion Moise Sahi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Amine Daali14%
Bruny Nsimba13%
Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni13%
Fabio Ferraro10%
Desmond Acquah8%
Bryan Goncalves7%
Noah Mbamba6%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh5%
Luc De Fougerolles4%
Mohamed Berte3%
Malcolm Viltard3%
Nathan Rodes0%
Michael Verrips0%
Guillaume Dietsch0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Ragnar Oratmangoen0%
Roman Kvet0%
David Hrnčár0%
Jordan Attah Kadiri0%
Kobe Cools0%
David Toshevski0%
Luc Marijnissen0%
Dion Moise Sahi0%
Krzysztof Koton0%
Benjamin Fredrick0%
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui0%
Bo De Kerf0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aurélien Scheidler25%
Bruny Nsimba17%
Jordan Attah Kadiri15%
Mohamed Berte10%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh10%
Roman Kvet9%
David Hrnčár6%
David Toshevski4%
Fabio Ferraro3%
Nathan Rodes3%
Michael Verrips0%
Guillaume Dietsch0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Ragnar Oratmangoen0%
Bryan Goncalves0%
Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni0%
Kobe Cools0%
Malcolm Viltard0%
Luc Marijnissen0%
Noah Mbamba0%
Dion Moise Sahi0%
Luc De Fougerolles0%
Desmond Acquah0%
Krzysztof Koton0%
Benjamin Fredrick0%
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui0%
Bo De Kerf0%
Amine Daali0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Beerschot VA
Excelsior Virton
Club Brugge II
Lokeren-Temse
Francs Borains
Sporting Hasselt
K. Lierse S.K.
AS Eupen
Patro Eisden
KRC Genk II
KAA Gent II
Seraing United
RSC Anderlecht II