Liège is the clear favourite to win at home, with a 70% chance of victory. The model rates them highly due to their opponent, Francs Borains, struggling away from home, particularly against stronger opponents where they concede an average of 2.33 goals. The expected total number of goals is 3.2, with the most likely outcome being a 3-goal match. The most likely score is 2-0 to Liège, with a 11.5% probability.
Liège have been scoring an average of 1.64 goals at home, but have also conceded 1 goal on average. Francs Borains, on the other hand, have been scoring just 0.89 goals away from home. The model's selection is a Home win, with a 70% probability. Other suggested picks include Home or Draw (89.2%), Over 1.5 (83.3%), Over 21.5 fouls (81.4%), and Home or Away (81.1%). Liège has a 70% chance of winning, a 19% chance of drawing, and an 11% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The upset came as Liège, the pre-match favourite with a 70 % chance of victory, slipped to a 1-2 loss, leaving the model’s pick wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away win, a result the model had not predicted. The model’s selection of a home win at 70 % was therefore missed. Among the suggested picks, the model’s choice of “Away under 3.5 goals” hit with a 99 % probability, as did “Home +2 handicap” at 96.6 %, “Away under 2.5 goals” at 94.8 %, “Home over 0.5 goals” at 90.4 % and “Over 1.5” at 83.3 %. The selections “Home or Draw” and “Home +1 handicap”, each at 89.2 %, missed. The match saw Liège’s recent form noted as a win, while Francs Borains came off a defeat.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Liège win✗ Miss
70.2%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.89
Edge
+21.9%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Dafabet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Draw✗ Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.51
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.83
Dafabet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Francs Borains win✓ Hit
10.8%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.58
Edge
-14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Pinnacle
3.74
Bet365
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Liège
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.37
1.69
1.19
0.93
1.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.38
1.79
1.21
0.83
1.58
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Francs Borains) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Francs Borains
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.60
1.07
1.07
1.00
2.06
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.82
1.50
0.75
0.86
2.43
vs Similar (19)
1.00
1.47
0.90
1.20
1.11
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
@ 1.21+6.8%
Under 1.5
16.7%
@ 3.96-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.17
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.4%
@ 1.70+6.8%
Under 2.5
38.6%
@ 2.05-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.73
888Sport
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
SBO
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.1%
@ 2.74+5.3%
Under 3.5
60.9%
@ 1.40-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
888Sport
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
10Bet
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.9%
@ 1.62-5.2%
No
48.1%
@ 2.15+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.62
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
No
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Unibet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.5%@ 9.02+6.7%
2-1
9.6%@ 7.51+3.8%
1-0
9.0%@ 7.62+3.3%
1-1
9.0%@ 6.33+2.1%
3-0
8.9%@ 14.77+6.0%
3-1
7.5%@ 12.54+4.0%
4-0
5.2%@ 30.82+3.8%
0-0
5.0%@ 11.01+1.1%
Liège goals ↓
Francs Borains goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
2.7%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
9.0%
9.0%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
2
11%
9.6%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.9%
7.5%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.2%
4.4%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Liège goals (down), columns = Francs Borains goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beerschot VA
2.00
Dender
1.71
Liège
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
Francs Borains
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
0.98
KRC Genk II
0.97
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
Excelsior Virton
0.91
Club Brugge II
0.66
Liège is 0.56 points better than Francs Borains in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dender
1.76
Beerschot VA
1.62
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Patro Eisden
1.38
Liège
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KRC Genk II
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Francs Borains
1.03
Club Brugge II
1.03
Sporting Hasselt
1.00
Excelsior Virton
0.94
Liège is 0.34 goals better than Francs Borains in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beerschot VA
0.97
AS Eupen
1.12
Dender
1.13
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
Club Brugge II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Sporting Hasselt
1.99
Excelsior Virton
2.13
Liège is 0.25 goals better than Francs Borains in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
Liège is 0.8 percentage points worse than Francs Borains in terms of average possession (44% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Liège
For 4.9 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.4 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Francs Borains
For 4.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liège
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.3
10.3
3.1
3.2
3.0
24.1
25.2
23.1
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.3
9.9
10.5
3.3
3.5
3.2
23.7
25.3
22.4
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
13.5
6.0
2.0
2.3
1.5
27.7
24.0
35.0
% over line
50%
44%
55%
48%
54%
42%
63%
67%
60%
% under line
50%
56%
45%
52%
46%
58%
37%
33%
40%
This opponent (Francs Borains) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Francs Borains
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.4
9.4
4.5
4.4
4.5
26.3
26.0
26.6
vs Stronger (18)
9.5
9.0
10.2
3.4
4.4
2.7
26.0
25.4
26.7
vs Similar (32)
10.1
11.1
9.1
5.0
4.5
5.7
26.4
26.2
26.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
48%
52%
64%
68%
60%
81%
81%
81%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
36%
32%
40%
19%
19%
19%
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.5
Beerschot VA
10.3
KRC Genk II
10.2
RSC Anderlecht II
9.8
Francs Borains
9.7
Dender
9.6
Club Brugge II
9.5
AS Eupen
9.5
KAA Gent II
9.5
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
Patro Eisden
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
Liège
4.6
RSC Anderlecht II
4.6
Club Brugge II
4.3
KAA Gent II
4.0
KRC Genk II
3.7
Dender
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.2
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.5
Club Brugge II
26.9
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.3
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
24.8
Beerschot VA
24.3
Dender
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.6%
@ 1.82-2.5%
Under 9.5
51.4%
@ 1.90+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Under
Unibet
2.12
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.89
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.1%
Under 3.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.4%
Under 21.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Liège or Draw✗ Miss
89.2%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.24
Edge
+14.6%
70%
19%
11%
covers Liège + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Liège or Francs Borains✓ Hit
81.1%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
+6.8%
70%
19%
11%
covers Liège + Francs Borains
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Draw or Francs Borains✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied 51.3% · @ 1.80
Edge
-21.5%
70%
19%
11%
covers Draw + Francs Borains
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Liège over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.4%
@ 1.16+10.1%
Under
9.6%
@ 4.69-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Liège over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
67.8%
@ 1.81+16.7%
Under
32.2%
@ 1.89-16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
888Sport
1.83
Unibet
1.83
Under
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.90
Liège over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
41.4%
@ 3.54+15.3%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.25-15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.68
Unibet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
888Sport
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Liège over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 7.62+8.6%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.07-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Betano
6.90
1xBet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Francs Borains over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.37-11.2%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.86+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
10Bet
2.90
Betano
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Unibet
2.88
Francs Borains over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
20.3%
@ 2.79-12.9%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.39+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
888Sport
2.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Francs Borains over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 6.97-8.1%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.07+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Francs Borains over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 18.56-4.1%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
1xBet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Liège, so a minus line means Liège give that many goals of a start and Francs Borains receive them. At -1, Liège must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Liège win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Liège)Actual: Francs Borains
Liège -2
27.1%
@ 6.74+13.8%
Draw -2
21.0%
@ 5.47+4.7%
Francs Borains +2
52.0%
@ 1.26-18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Handicap -1 (Liège)Actual: Francs Borains
Liège -1
48.0%
@ 3.28+21.1%
Draw -1
22.2%
@ 3.67-1.8%
Francs Borains +1
29.8%
@ 1.80-19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Away
10Bet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
Unibet
1.75
Handicap +1 (Liège)Actual: Draw
Liège +1
89.2%
@ 1.26+18.6%
Draw +1
7.4%
@ 5.15-9.9%
Francs Borains -1
3.4%
@ 7.30-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
10Bet
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Liège)Actual: Liège
Liège +2
96.6%
@ 1.07+9.9%
Draw +2
2.7%
@ 11.00-5.8%
Francs Borains -2
0.8%
@ 19.00-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Liège
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.06
0.62
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.77
1.07
0.71
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Francs Borains) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Francs Borains
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.93
0.36
0.64
0.25
1.19
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.82
0.50
0.25
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (19)
0.32
1.00
0.30
0.80
0.33
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Liège over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Francs Borains over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Francs Borains over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Francs Borains over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Liège
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.62
0.56
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.62
0.71
0.50
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Francs Borains) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Francs Borains
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.71
1.29
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Liège over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Francs Borains over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Francs Borains over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Francs Borains over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.4%
1.16
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
89.2%
1.24
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+14.6%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
89.2%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.21
-
+18.6%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.1%
1.24
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.25
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.7%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
+12.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
79.1%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-8.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
1.33
Unibet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.24
-
-
+5.7%
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Liège · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Frederic Soelle Soelle33%
Simon Paulet25%
Oumar Diouf20%
Kylian Hazard17%
Alexis Lefebvre14%
Alexis De Sart12%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa8%
Kays Ruiz-Atil8%
Lucca Lucker7%
Kevin Shkurti7%
Jonathan D'Ostilio6%
Abian Arslan6%
Damien Mouchamps6%
Benoit Bruggeman5%
Reno Wilmots0%
Victor Corneillie0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Eric N'jo0%
Stephen Reynaerts0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordan Bustin45%
Oumar Diouf30%
Reno Wilmots26%
Jonathan D'Ostilio25%
Stephen Reynaerts25%
Kevin Shkurti21%
Alexis Lefebvre19%
Kays Ruiz-Atil15%
Victor Corneillie14%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa8%
Simon Paulet8%
Martin Wasinski8%
Abian Arslan6%
Alexis De Sart6%
Damien Mouchamps6%
Kylian Hazard0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Benoit Bruggeman0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Eric N'jo0%
Frederic Soelle Soelle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Wasinski21%
Benoit Bruggeman15%
Eric N'jo14%
Jonathan D'Ostilio12%
Kylian Hazard11%
Oumar Diouf10%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa8%
Simon Paulet8%
Kays Ruiz-Atil8%
Alexis De Sart6%
Reno Wilmots4%
Damien Mouchamps0%
Victor Corneillie0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Abian Arslan0%
Frederic Soelle Soelle0%
Stephen Reynaerts0%
Kevin Shkurti0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Frederic Soelle Soelle22%
Oumar Diouf20%
Kylian Hazard17%
Kays Ruiz-Atil15%
Benoit Bruggeman15%
Alexis Lefebvre10%
Reno Wilmots9%
Simon Paulet8%
Alexis De Sart0%
Pierre-Yves Ngawa0%
Damien Mouchamps0%
Victor Corneillie0%
Alexis Andre Jr.0%
Fadel Gobitaka0%
Darío Sarmiento0%
Jordan Bustin0%
Jonathan D'Ostilio0%
Jordi Belin0%
Emrehan Gedikli0%
Flavio Da Silva0%
Lucca Lucker0%
Martin Wasinski0%
Abian Arslan0%
Eric N'jo0%
Stephen Reynaerts0%
Kevin Shkurti0%
Francs Borains · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lucas Lima26%
Arsène Wukanya25%
Yanis Hadjem18%
Mondy Prunier17%
Massimo Bruno13%
Philipp Wydra10%
Levi Malungu10%
Aboubacar Ali Abdallah10%
Jordy Soladio8%
Corenthyn Lavie8%
Mathias Francotte8%
Maxime Bastian8%
Dorian Dessoleil4%
Hossni Soye Ndime0%
Sébastien Dewaest0%
Mathias Fixelles0%
Jasper Van Oudenhove0%
Kays Ruiz-Atil0%
Yannick Pandor0%
Noah Diliberto0%
Yannis Kari0%
Lukas Mondele0%
Théo Gécé0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Jovan Mituljikić0%
Jason Dalle Molle0%
Victor Swinnen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Fixelles44%
Jason Dalle Molle32%
Levi Malungu30%
Massimo Bruno26%
Sébastien Dewaest25%
Mathias Francotte20%
Philipp Wydra20%
Victor Swinnen20%
Yanis Hadjem18%
Jordy Soladio17%
Théo Gécé17%
Corenthyn Lavie16%
Maxime Bastian16%
Lukas Mondele16%
Yannis Kari14%
Yannick Pandor10%
Noah Diliberto10%
Aboubacar Ali Abdallah10%
Jovan Mituljikić9%
Dorian Dessoleil8%
Jasper Van Oudenhove6%
Hossni Soye Ndime0%
Kays Ruiz-Atil0%
Lucas Lima0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Mondy Prunier0%
Arsène Wukanya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sébastien Dewaest12%
Dorian Dessoleil12%
Philipp Wydra10%
Aboubacar Ali Abdallah10%
Massimo Bruno9%
Jordy Soladio8%
Corenthyn Lavie8%
Mathias Francotte8%
Jasper Van Oudenhove6%
Lucas Lima5%
Noah Diliberto5%
Jason Dalle Molle5%
Maxime Bastian4%
Hossni Soye Ndime0%
Mathias Fixelles0%
Kays Ruiz-Atil0%
Yannick Pandor0%
Yanis Hadjem0%
Yannis Kari0%
Levi Malungu0%
Lukas Mondele0%
Théo Gécé0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Jovan Mituljikić0%
Mondy Prunier0%
Victor Swinnen0%
Arsène Wukanya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Corenthyn Lavie20%
Massimo Bruno17%
Aboubacar Ali Abdallah10%
Jasper Van Oudenhove6%
Lucas Lima5%
Mathias Francotte4%
Maxime Bastian4%
Dorian Dessoleil4%
Hossni Soye Ndime0%
Sébastien Dewaest0%
Mathias Fixelles0%
Jordy Soladio0%
Kays Ruiz-Atil0%
Yannick Pandor0%
Yanis Hadjem0%
Noah Diliberto0%
Philipp Wydra0%
Yannis Kari0%
Levi Malungu0%
Lukas Mondele0%
Théo Gécé0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Jovan Mituljikić0%
Mondy Prunier0%
Jason Dalle Molle0%
Victor Swinnen0%
Arsène Wukanya0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Beerschot VA
Excelsior Virton
Club Brugge II
Dender
Lokeren-Temse
Sporting Hasselt
K. Lierse S.K.
AS Eupen
Patro Eisden
KRC Genk II
KAA Gent II
Seraing United
RSC Anderlecht II