Lillestrom are tipped to win the match, with a 53% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of a Fredrikstad win. The model predicts an average of 2.8 goals, most likely a 2-goal total with a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12.3% chance. Lillestrom, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded, while Fredrikstad, on the road, average 1.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.1% with a 4% edge, Under 7.5 at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4% with a 7% edge, Under 6.5 at 96.7% with a 2% edge, Home +2 handicap at 96.4% with a 7% edge, and Away under 2.5 goals at 95.3% with a 7% edge. Lillestrom’s recent form shows a draw streak, while Fredrikstad come off a four-game winning run.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Fredrikstad overturned a home favourite Lillestrom 4-1, snapping the home side’s recent string of defeats and extending Fredrikstad’s five-game winning run. The model had tipped a home win with a 51% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 1-4 confirmed the away triumph. The model’s selections were mixed: Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%) missed, Under 7.5 (98.9%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%) hit, Under 6.5 (96.8%) hit, Home +2 handicap (96.4%) missed, and Away under 2.5 goals (95.3%) missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lillestrom win✗ Miss
51.2%
Avg Implied 53.3% · @ 1.75
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.81
Dafabet
1.79
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
SBO
1.76
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.68
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.89
Marathonbet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Dafabet
3.75
Fredrikstad win✓ Hit
22.5%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.40
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.80
Unibet
4.50
Dafabet
4.50
Betano
4.50
Betfair
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lillestrom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.07
2.29
1.07
1.69
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
3.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (17)
1.88
0.65
2.62
0.88
1.22
0.44
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.00
2.50
1.00
3.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fredrikstad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.47
1.42
1.00
1.33
1.78
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.57
1.67
1.00
1.08
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
0.40
1.00
0.00
2.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
@ 1.23+1.4%
Under 1.5
22.7%
@ 3.87-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.04
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.76-1.4%
Under 2.5
48.0%
@ 2.03+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Under
SBO
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.9%
@ 2.84-2.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
@ 1.38+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
2.92
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
Under
10Bet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
@ 1.70-0.1%
No
45.5%
@ 2.04+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.75
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
No
Unibet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.79+5.9%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.47+3.7%
1-0
9.6%@ 7.23+3.4%
2-0
9.2%@ 8.42+3.8%
0-0
7.5%@ 11.12+3.4%
1-2
6.0%@ 12.90+2.6%
0-1
5.6%@ 12.20+1.9%
3-1
5.5%@ 12.20+1.8%
Lillestrom goals ↓
Fredrikstad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
5.6%
3.6%
1.3%
0.3%
1
9.6%
13%
6.0%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.2%
9.7%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.2%
5.5%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.2%
2.3%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lillestrom goals (down), columns = Fredrikstad goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.44
Viking
2.39
Tromso
1.94
Molde
1.67
Fredrikstad
1.44
Lillestrom
1.44
Brann
1.44
Rosenborg
1.33
Ham-Kam
1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Valerenga
1.17
KFUM Oslo
1.06
Sandefjord
1.06
Kristiansund BK
0.89
Aalesund
0.83
Start
0.72
Lillestrom and Fredrikstad are level in average points per game (both 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.61
Viking
2.33
Molde
2.00
Brann
2.00
Tromso
1.89
Valerenga
1.72
Aalesund
1.56
Rosenborg
1.50
Ham-Kam
1.44
Lillestrom
1.33
Fredrikstad
1.22
KFUM Oslo
1.11
Start
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.11
Kristiansund BK
0.94
Sandefjord
0.83
Lillestrom is 0.11 goals better than Fredrikstad in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.78
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Sandefjord
1.28
Lillestrom
1.39
Rosenborg
1.44
Brann
1.50
Fredrikstad
1.56
Molde
1.61
Kristiansund BK
1.61
KFUM Oslo
1.72
Ham-Kam
1.78
Valerenga
2.11
Start
2.17
Aalesund
2.39
Lillestrom is 0.17 goals better than Fredrikstad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
64%
Brann
59%
Molde
58%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
50%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Ham-Kam
48%
Fredrikstad
47%
KFUM Oslo
46%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Lillestrom is 5.3 percentage points better than Fredrikstad in terms of average possession (53% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lillestrom
For 5.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 13.8 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fredrikstad
For 3.7 · Against 7.1 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lillestrom
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.6
11.1
1.6
2.0
1.3
25.4
26.8
24.2
vs Stronger (4)
11.0
10.5
12.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
27.3
27.5
27.0
vs Similar (23)
10.8
10.8
10.8
2.4
2.1
2.7
25.2
26.8
24.2
vs Weaker (23)
11.0
10.0
13.0
0.8
1.6
0.2
24.3
26.0
21.0
% over line
68%
44%
90%
22%
29%
15%
68%
78%
60%
% under line
32%
56%
10%
78%
71%
85%
32%
22%
40%
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fredrikstad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.4
10.5
2.7
3.0
2.4
20.5
19.8
21.2
vs Stronger (10)
9.9
8.2
11.5
3.2
3.6
2.8
18.2
19.5
17.0
vs Similar (33)
10.2
10.0
10.3
2.7
3.1
2.4
21.5
20.0
22.9
vs Weaker (7)
8.8
8.0
9.7
1.7
2.0
1.5
18.8
19.3
18.3
% over line
65%
57%
73%
30%
35%
26%
40%
29%
50%
% under line
35%
43%
27%
70%
65%
74%
60%
71%
50%
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valerenga
12.0
Aalesund
11.8
Viking
11.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.3
Rosenborg
11.2
Brann
11.0
Sandefjord
10.9
Bodo/Glimt
10.8
Lillestrom
10.5
Ham-Kam
10.3
Kristiansund BK
10.2
Molde
10.2
Fredrikstad
10.0
Start
8.9
KFUM Oslo
8.9
Tromso
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Molde
4.2
Viking
4.2
Brann
4.2
Lillestrom
4.1
Rosenborg
4.0
Valerenga
3.9
Start
3.8
Sandefjord
3.7
Kristiansund BK
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.4
Tromso
3.3
Aalesund
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.2
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
25.2
Viking
24.7
Rosenborg
24.5
Valerenga
24.0
Tromso
23.9
Brann
23.9
Start
23.6
Molde
23.3
Ham-Kam
23.1
Lillestrom
22.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.6
Kristiansund BK
21.9
KFUM Oslo
21.7
Aalesund
21.6
Fredrikstad
21.1
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
65.0%
@ 1.49+3.1%
Under 9.5
35.0%
@ 2.42-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.43
Under
Marathonbet
2.50
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.39
Superbet
2.37
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.8%
Under 3.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
69.4%
Under 21.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lillestrom or Draw✗ Miss
88.5%
Avg Implied 78.5% · @ 1.19
Edge
+10.0%
51%
26%
22%
covers Lillestrom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Lillestrom or Fredrikstad✓ Hit
79.6%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
+4.2%
51%
26%
22%
covers Lillestrom + Fredrikstad
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Draw or Fredrikstad✓ Hit
31.9%
Avg Implied 46.2% · @ 2.02
Edge
-14.3%
51%
26%
22%
covers Draw + Fredrikstad
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.10
SBO
2.07
1xBet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.7%
@ 1.14+7.2%
Under
11.3%
@ 5.03-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Lillestrom over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
64.1%
@ 1.75+10.5%
Under
35.9%
@ 2.01-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
BetVictor
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
Lillestrom over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
37.2%
@ 3.35+9.4%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.29-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.71
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
Superbet
3.40
Under
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Lillestrom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.7%
@ 7.18+4.7%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.07-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.0%
@ 1.45-9.3%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.60+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.60
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
19.1%
@ 3.18-10.2%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.32+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
BetVictor
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Under
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
4.7%
@ 8.48-6.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.05+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.90
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Fredrikstad over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
0.9%
@ 19.67-4.0%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Bet365
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lillestrom, so a minus line means Lillestrom give that many goals of a start and Fredrikstad receive them. At -1, Lillestrom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lillestrom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lillestrom)Actual: Fredrikstad
Lillestrom -2
24.2%
@ 5.84+8.9%
Draw -2
20.8%
@ 4.89+2.5%
Fredrikstad +2
55.0%
@ 1.35-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
Handicap -1 (Lillestrom)Actual: Fredrikstad
Lillestrom -1
45.0%
@ 2.92+14.4%
Draw -1
23.1%
@ 3.54-2.1%
Fredrikstad +1
31.9%
@ 2.02-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
10Bet
2.90
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
Unibet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +1 (Lillestrom)Actual: Fredrikstad
Lillestrom +1
88.5%
@ 1.19+12.9%
Draw +1
7.9%
@ 5.95-7.2%
Fredrikstad -1
3.6%
@ 9.63-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
9.30
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Handicap +2 (Lillestrom)Actual: Fredrikstad
Lillestrom +2
96.4%
@ 1.04+6.6%
Draw +2
2.8%
@ 13.50-4.1%
Fredrikstad -2
0.8%
@ 28.50-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lillestrom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.47
1.00
0.62
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.33
0.75
0.25
1.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fredrikstad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.75
0.58
0.44
0.89
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.81
0.89
0.67
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.8%
@ 1.33-2.3%
Under 0.5
32.2%
@ 3.11+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.22
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.3%
@ 2.54-5.2%
Under 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.46+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.67
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.59
1xBet
2.59
Under
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 6.31-3.8%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.09+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
Under
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 1.69-7.6%
Under
52.8%
@ 2.06+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 4.37-9.5%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.17+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.50
Superbet
4.35
1xBet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 11.00-5.5%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.8%
@ 2.46+1.1%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.49-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
10Bet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.1%
@ 8.74-1.5%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 36.00-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lillestrom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.50
0.50
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (17)
1.24
0.18
1.62
0.25
0.89
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.67
1.75
0.75
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fredrikstad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.67
0.42
0.89
0.89
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.76
0.78
0.33
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.20
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.9%
@ 1.20-0.7%
Under 0.5
23.1%
@ 4.15+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.9%
@ 1.95-2.9%
Under 1.5
55.1%
@ 1.78+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.8%
@ 4.04-3.2%
Under 2.5
80.2%
@ 1.21+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Betano
3.85
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
57.2%
@ 1.47-5.9%
Under
42.8%
@ 2.51+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Under
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.1%
@ 3.25-7.4%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.29+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 8.12-4.6%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.05+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
8.60
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.4%
@ 2.04+0.1%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.70-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.04
10Bet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.9%
@ 6.28-0.8%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.08+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 18.33-2.7%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
10Bet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.07
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
88.7%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.13
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+10.0%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
88.5%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
+12.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+0.8%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
82.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.9%
1.13
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
80.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
+10.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.29
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.3%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.20
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.0%
1.27
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.1%
1.38
10Bet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+2.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lillestrom
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thomas Lehne Olsen25%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim24%
Felix Vá22%
Markus Karlsbakk20%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Salieu Drammeh17%
Lars Ranger12%
Camil Jebara9%
Karl Linus Alperud9%
Kparobo Arierhi9%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Yaw Paintsil0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Frederik Elkær0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Harald Woxen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ylldren Ibrahimaj35%
Harald Woxen27%
Stian Kristiansen25%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim24%
Frederik Elkær20%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Markus Karlsbakk13%
Kevin Martin Krygard12%
Lars Ranger12%
Pontus Dahlberg11%
Sander Moen Foss11%
Ulrik Jenssen10%
Camil Jebara9%
Yaw Paintsil8%
Ruben Gabrielsen7%
Felix Vá6%
Thomas Lehne Olsen0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Felix Vá22%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj12%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim12%
Frederik Elkær10%
Thomas Lehne Olsen8%
Yaw Paintsil8%
Salieu Drammeh8%
Lars Ranger6%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Markus Karlsbakk0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Camil Jebara0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Harald Woxen0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thomas Lehne Olsen33%
Salieu Drammeh17%
Markus Karlsbakk13%
Lars Ranger6%
Felix Vá6%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Yaw Paintsil0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Frederik Elkær0%
Camil Jebara0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Harald Woxen0%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Fredrikstad
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger19%
Rocco Robert Shein18%
Benjamin Thoresen Faraas18%
Gabriel Wesseh17%
Solomon Owusu12%
Johannes Núñez12%
Fredrik Holmé12%
Eirik Granaas12%
Daniel Eid12%
Max Nilsson8%
Simen Rafn8%
Samuel Leach Holm7%
Ulrik Fredriksen6%
Leonard Owusu0%
Isak Helstad Amundsen0%
Jakub Jezierski0%
Henrik Langaas Skogvold0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Martin Borsheim0%
Salim Laghzaoui0%
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem0%
Sondre Sørløkk0%
Jonathan Norbye0%
Joachim Nysveen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eirik Granaas38%
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem20%
Fredrik Holmé19%
Benjamin Thoresen Faraas18%
Martin Borsheim17%
Simen Rafn15%
Johannes Núñez12%
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger12%
Daniel Eid12%
Jonathan Norbye11%
Rocco Robert Shein9%
Leonard Owusu8%
Max Nilsson8%
Samuel Leach Holm7%
Ulrik Fredriksen6%
Solomon Owusu0%
Isak Helstad Amundsen0%
Jakub Jezierski0%
Henrik Langaas Skogvold0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Salim Laghzaoui0%
Gabriel Wesseh0%
Sondre Sørløkk0%
Joachim Nysveen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gabriel Wesseh17%
Johannes Núñez12%
Daniel Eid12%
Rocco Robert Shein9%
Sondre Sørløkk9%
Leonard Owusu8%
Max Nilsson8%
Simen Rafn8%
Samuel Leach Holm7%
Fredrik Holmé6%
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger6%
Salim Laghzaoui6%
Henrik Langaas Skogvold6%
Solomon Owusu0%
Ulrik Fredriksen0%
Isak Helstad Amundsen0%
Benjamin Thoresen Faraas0%
Jakub Jezierski0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Martin Borsheim0%
Eirik Granaas0%
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem0%
Jonathan Norbye0%
Joachim Nysveen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Benjamin Thoresen Faraas18%
Henrik Langaas Skogvold17%
Johannes Núñez12%
Sondre Sørløkk9%
Daniel Eid6%
Ulrik Fredriksen6%
Simen Rafn0%
Samuel Leach Holm0%
Solomon Owusu0%
Rocco Robert Shein0%
Leonard Owusu0%
Isak Helstad Amundsen0%
Fredrik Holmé0%
Jakub Jezierski0%
Aleksander Andresen0%
Martin Borsheim0%
Max Nilsson0%
Salim Laghzaoui0%
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger0%
Eirik Granaas0%
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem0%
Gabriel Wesseh0%
Jonathan Norbye0%
Joachim Nysveen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (27)
€47m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (25)
€27m
ROS (23)
€23m
S0F (24)
€16m
VAL (22)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
TRO (22)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (23)
€12m
HAM (24)
€10m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Lillestrom and Fredrikstad have a similar squad value (both €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (10)
€11m
ROS (8)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
AAL (7)
€5m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
SAN (8)
€4m
TRO (6)
€4m
HAM (10)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Lillestrom and Fredrikstad have a similar attack value (both €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
HAM (6)
€3m
TRO (5)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Lillestrom and Fredrikstad have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
VIK (12)
€15m
MOL (11)
€15m
ROS (11)
€9m
BRA (11)
€9m
TRO (11)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
VAL (9)
€5m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
HAM (8)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
Lillestrom's defence is €2m less valuable than Fredrikstad's (€5m vs €8m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Molde
Brann
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
Sandefjord
KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
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