PythiaFootballBETA
Lincoln Red Imps FC are the clear favourites to win at home, with the model predicting a home win as the most likely outcome. This confidence stems from the team's impressive home form, particularly against weaker opponents, where they have averaged 4.86 goals scored and a mere 0.43 conceded.
Lynx, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, especially against stronger opponents, scoring an average of 0.67 goals and conceding 1.67. The model gives Lincoln Red Imps FC a 68% chance of winning at home, with a 12% chance of an away win and a 20% chance of a draw.
The expected total number of goals is 3.2, with the most likely score being 2-0, although the most likely total number of goals is 3. The model's selection is the home win, which is the most likely outcome.
In terms of specific scores, the most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 10.9%. As for the model's selections, the Over 1.5 goal line is the model's selection with an 83.6% probability.
The Lincoln Red Imps FC's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches has been extended with a convincing 4-1 win over Lynx, as predicted by the Pythia model. The model correctly backed the home win, with a pre-match probability of 68%. The model's selection, a home win, was correct. The model also correctly identified that the match would go over 1.5 goals, with an 83.6% probability, which hit. The most likely score was a 2-0 or 2-1 win for Lincoln Red Imps FC, with a 22% probability of exactly 3 total goals. The expected total goals was 3.2, with the most likely score being 2-0.
Lincoln Red Imps FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.77 | 0.97 | 3.19 | 0.75 | 2.29 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.00 | 2.38 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 3.25 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 3.41 | 0.45 | 3.83 | 0.50 | 2.90 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Lynx| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.73 | 1.14 | 2.29 | 1.62 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.92 | 2.67 | 0.40 | 4.40 | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.33 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 2.11 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Lynx goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.4% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Lincoln Red Imps FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.50 | 1.38 | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 1.50 | 0.32 | 1.75 | 0.33 | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Lynx| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.58 | 0.83 | 0.40 | 1.20 | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.56 | 1.11 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.11 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 2-5 | |
| 10/01/25 | A | 1-5 | |
| 25/09/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 21/01/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 24/09/23 | H | 3-2 | |
| 03/03/23 | H | 4-0 | |
| 22/01/23 | A | 1-4 |
Lincoln Red Imps FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 05/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 26/02/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 19/02/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/02/26 | A | 0-10 |
Lynx| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/01/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/01/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 11/01/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 27 | 72 | 85% | 2.7 | 89 | 17 | +72 | 3.9 | 93% | 81% | 44% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.3 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 |  St Joseph S Fc | 27 | 63 | 74% | 2.3 | 96 | 17 | +79 | 4.2 | 81% | 74% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 3 |  Europa | 27 | 56 | 67% | 2.1 | 53 | 21 | +32 | 2.7 | 74% | 56% | 26% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 |  Mons Calpe | 27 | 53 | 63% | 2.0 | 63 | 35 | +28 | 3.6 | 93% | 78% | 48% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 |  Lions Gibraltar | 27 | 43 | 48% | 1.6 | 53 | 44 | +9 | 3.6 | 89% | 70% | 48% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 6 | Lynx | 27 | 34 | 37% | 1.3 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 3.1 | 70% | 56% | 44% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 |  Magpies | 22 | 28 | 36% | 1.3 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 2.6 | 68% | 55% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 |  Europa Point | 22 | 22 | 32% | 1.0 | 31 | 61 | -30 | 4.2 | 86% | 82% | 55% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.8 | - |
| 9 |  Manchester 62 | 22 | 17 | 23% | 0.8 | 28 | 79 | -51 | 4.9 | 86% | 82% | 73% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.6 | - |
| 10 |  College 1975 | 22 | 14 | 14% | 0.6 | 15 | 45 | -30 | 2.7 | 68% | 36% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 |  Glacis United | 22 | 12 | 14% | 0.5 | 18 | 57 | -39 | 3.4 | 86% | 64% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | - |
| 12 |  Hound Dogs | 22 | 8 | 5% | 0.4 | 10 | 66 | -56 | 3.5 | 91% | 64% | 45% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | - |