Lincoln Red Imps FC are the clear favourite to win at home, a verdict the model reaches by weighing their dominant home form - averaging 4.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded against weaker opposition - against the Magpies’ weaker away performance, where they average just 2.0 goals scored and concede 1.0 to stronger teams. The model therefore picks a home win, with a 62% probability, a draw at 20% and an away win at 18%. The expected total is 3.7 goals, so the most likely total is three goals, a 21% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9.2% probability. In addition to the home win, the model offers several selections: Over 1.5 goals at 89.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.2%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.3% and Over 2.5 goals at 72.3%. The home side’s recent run of two wins and the Magpies’ recent win set the narrative, but the venue advantage and the statistical edge keep the home side ahead.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Lincoln Red Imps FC, failed to deliver. The final score was 1-3, giving the away side, the Magpies, an unexpected victory. The model had picked a home win with a 62% probability, but that call proved incorrect. The model’s selections for total goals were Over 1.5 (89.6%) and Over 2.5 (72.3%); both were hit as the match produced three goals. The home side had been on a two-game winning run, while the Magpies had just won away, yet the away team turned the tide. The predicted most likely score of 2-1 did not materialise, and the match finished with the Magpies triumphing.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lincoln Red Imps FC win✗ Miss
62.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Magpies win✓ Hit
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
3.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.85
0.85
3.86
0.43
1.67
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
3.88
0.75
4.80
0.40
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
46% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.18
0.73
2.33
0.33
2.00
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.86
1.40
0.40
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
4.33
0.33
7.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
45% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.6%
Under 1.5
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.3%
Under 2.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.6%
Under 3.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.5%
2-0
7.1%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.8%
1-0
5.0%
3-2
4.9%
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals ↓
Magpies goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
2.3%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
1
5.0%
8.2%
4.8%
2.1%
0.7%
2
7.1%
9.2%
5.9%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.8%
7.5%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
4
3.6%
4.6%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (down), columns = Magpies goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.60
Europa
2.20
Magpies
1.85
Lynx
1.65
Mons Calpe
1.61
Manchester 62
1.56
St Joseph S Fc
1.50
Lions Gibraltar
1.06
Glacis United
0.65
College 1975
0.50
Europa Point
0.39
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 0.75 points better than Magpies in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.40
Europa
2.40
Magpies
1.95
Manchester 62
1.89
St Joseph S Fc
1.75
Lynx
1.65
Mons Calpe
1.56
Lions Gibraltar
1.39
College 1975
1.06
Glacis United
0.95
Europa Point
0.67
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 1.45 goals better than Magpies in terms of goals scored per game (3.40 vs 1.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.70
Europa
0.75
Magpies
0.90
St Joseph S Fc
1.35
Mons Calpe
1.39
Lynx
1.45
Manchester 62
1.67
Lions Gibraltar
2.06
Glacis United
2.45
College 1975
2.83
Europa Point
3.61
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 0.20 goals better than Magpies in terms of goals conceded per game (0.70 vs 0.90).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.54
0.54
2.29
0.43
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.62
3.00
0.40
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
54% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.91
0.27
1.17
0.00
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.14
0.40
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
5.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
0.31
1.57
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.12
1.80
0.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.45
1.17
0.33
1.40
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.40
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
64% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lincoln Red Imps FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kike Gómez33%
Christian Rutjens25%
Nicholas Pozo20%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayman El Ghobashy67%
Mandi60%
Graeme Torrilla50%
Jaylan Hankins40%
Joe33%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo33%
Tjay De Barr17%
Kike Gómez17%
Toni Kolega0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe33%
Toni Kolega17%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Juanje Argüez17%
Mandi0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Toni0%
Kike Gómez0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nano20%
Kike Gómez17%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Tjay De Barr0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
Lincoln Red Imps FC's squad is €1m more valuable than Magpies's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and Magpies have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and Magpies have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and Magpies have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Lynx
St Joseph S Fc
Mons Calpe
Manchester 62
Lions Gibraltar
Glacis United
College 1975
Europa Point