Lincoln Red Imps FC is the clear favourite to win at home, with a 65% probability of a home win. The model rates them highly due to Mons Calpe's weakness at home, where they have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game against similar opponents. This has allowed Lincoln Red Imps FC to dominate at home, scoring an average of 1.83 goals per game and conceding just 1.17.
The expected total number of goals in the match is 3.8, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely score is 2-1, with a probability of 9.1%. Lincoln Red Imps FC has a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.83 goals per game and conceding 1.17.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a 65% probability. The suggested picks are Over 1.5, with a 90% probability, and Over 2.5, with a 73.2% probability. Mons Calpe has struggled on the road, scoring an average of 2.17 goals per game, but conceding 1.5. The probabilities for the match are: Home win 65%, Draw 19%, Away win 16%.
Results analysis
The win extends Lincoln Red Imps FC's unbeaten run. They took home the 2-1 victory, securing the actual result. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 65%. The model's call was a sound one, as it landed the favoured result. The suggested picks largely came in, with both Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 hitting, the former with a 90% probability and the latter with a 73.2% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lincoln Red Imps FC win✓ Hit
64.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe win✗ Miss
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.93
1.13
3.40
0.73
2.47
1.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (8)
1.00
2.38
1.25
1.50
0.75
3.25
vs Weaker (21)
3.76
0.48
4.18
0.45
3.30
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.57
1.53
1.53
2.53
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.00
0.33
2.33
1.50
1.75
vs Similar (12)
2.08
1.67
2.00
1.57
2.20
1.80
vs Weaker (11)
2.64
1.18
1.60
1.00
3.50
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.2%
Under 2.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 3.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.1%
1-1
7.8%
3-1
7.7%
2-0
7.2%
3-0
6.1%
2-2
5.7%
1-0
5.0%
4-1
4.9%
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals ↓
Mons Calpe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
2.1%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
1
5.0%
7.8%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
2
7.2%
9.1%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
6.1%
7.7%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
4
3.9%
4.9%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (down), columns = Mons Calpe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 0.70 points better than Mons Calpe in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 1.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 0.96 goals better than Mons Calpe in terms of goals scored per game (3.30 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 0.67 goals better than Mons Calpe in terms of goals conceded per game (0.63 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.60
1.40
0.53
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
0.12
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.67
0.33
1.82
0.36
1.50
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Mons Calpe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mons Calpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
0.67
0.60
1.13
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.33
1.00
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.83
1.00
0.71
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.45
0.40
0.20
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mons Calpe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
St Joseph S Fc
Europa
Lions Gibraltar
Lynx
Magpies
Europa Point
Manchester 62
College 1975
Glacis United
Hound Dogs