Lincoln Red Imps FC host St Joseph S FC in the Gibraltar Premier Division, with the away side enjoying recent form. St Joseph S FC came off a 3-3 draw against Lions Gibraltar, while Lincoln Red Imps FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 1-1 draw against Omonia Nicosia.
The model predicts an away win, with a 48% probability of St Joseph S FC securing the three points. The expected total goals is 3.3, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.6% probability. Lincoln Red Imps FC have scored 2 goals on average at home, while conceding 1.4. St Joseph S FC have scored 2 goals on average away from home, while conceding 0.5 against similar opponents.
The model's selection is an Away win, with a 48% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.5% probability. Additionally, the model selects the Home win, with a 27% probability, and the Draw, with a 24% probability. St Joseph S FC's away win percentage is 48%, the Draw percentage is 24%, and the Home win percentage is 27%.
Results analysis
The home team, Lincoln Red Imps FC, pulled off a stunning upset, winning 1-0, against the pre-match favourite, the away team, St Joseph S Fc. The away team's win was not predicted by the model, which had selected the away win with a probability of 48%. The model's call was therefore wrong. The suggested picks were also unable to predict the outcome. The model had suggested the pick 'Over 1.5' with a probability of 85.5%, but it missed the actual score of 1-0. The win extends Lincoln Red Imps FC's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches, having drawn 3 and won 2.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Lincoln Red Imps FC winâ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc winâ Miss
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
1.27
3.33
1.00
2.47
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.50
0.00
4.00
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
2.71
1.33
2.00
0.75
3.25
vs Weaker (21)
3.76
0.48
4.18
0.45
3.30
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
4.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.57
0.63
3.53
0.93
3.60
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.50
0.50
2.50
2.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
3.92
0.50
4.00
0.69
3.85
0.31
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.7%
Under 3.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.6%
1-3
5.9%
0-1
5.9%
0-0
4.5%
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals ↓
St Joseph S Fc goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
5.9%
6.6%
4.2%
2.0%
1
4.1%
11%
9.3%
5.9%
2.9%
2
3.6%
6.8%
6.6%
4.2%
2.0%
3
1.7%
3.2%
3.1%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (down), columns = St Joseph S Fc goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 0.33 points better than St Joseph S Fc in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 2.33).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 0.26 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals scored per game (3.30 vs 3.56).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.63).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.67
1.40
0.67
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (7)
0.14
1.14
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.67
0.33
1.82
0.36
1.50
0.30
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.23
1.60
0.33
1.47
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.65
0.23
1.85
0.31
1.46
0.15
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 11. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
MAG (13)
€1m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc have a similar squad value (both €2m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
MAG (5)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc have a similar defence value (both €1m).
ðĪ 12. Games History
H2H record
8 previous meetings
1
LRI wins
4
Draws
3
SJS wins
Head-to-head
Lincoln Red Imps FC vs St Joseph S Fc · H/A from LRI
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Mons Calpe
Lions Gibraltar
Lynx
Magpies
Europa Point
Manchester 62
College 1975
Glacis United
Hound Dogs