The contest between Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home advantage offers Lincoln a 36% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 37% chance that St Joseph S Fc will prevail. The expected total goals hover at 3.0, yet the most likely aggregate is 2 goals, a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 12.1% chance. Lincoln, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. St Joseph S Fc, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.67 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.0%), Under 5.5 (91.1%), Away +2 handicap (81.9%), Over 1.5 (81.9%), and Home +2 handicap (81.3%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the narrow margins that could decide the match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lincoln Red Imps FC win
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc win
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.87
2.31
0.81
2.14
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.20
1.25
1.12
2.14
1.29
vs Weaker (14)
2.93
0.50
3.71
0.43
2.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.27
0.73
3.27
1.00
3.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.30
0.80
3.25
1.50
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
3.75
0.70
3.27
0.82
4.33
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
0-0
5.6%
2-0
5.5%
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals ↓
St Joseph S Fc goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.8%
5.3%
2.7%
1.0%
1
6.0%
12%
8.3%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.5%
6.5%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.9%
4.4%
3.4%
1.7%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (down), columns = St Joseph S Fc goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 0.33 points better than St Joseph S Fc in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lincoln Red Imps FC is 0.26 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals scored per game (3.30 vs 3.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lincoln Red Imps FC or Draw
63.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
26%
36%
covers Lincoln Red Imps FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC or St Joseph S Fc
74.0%
Avg Implied -
38%
26%
36%
covers Lincoln Red Imps FC + St Joseph S Fc
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or St Joseph S Fc
62.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
26%
36%
covers Draw + St Joseph S Fc
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lincoln Red Imps FC, so a minus line means Lincoln Red Imps FC give that many goals of a start and St Joseph S Fc receive them. At -1, Lincoln Red Imps FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lincoln Red Imps FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lincoln Red Imps FC)
Lincoln Red Imps FC -2
7.6%
Draw -2
11.5%
St Joseph S Fc +2
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lincoln Red Imps FC)
Lincoln Red Imps FC -1
19.1%
Draw -1
18.6%
St Joseph S Fc +1
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lincoln Red Imps FC)
Lincoln Red Imps FC +1
63.7%
Draw +1
18.2%
St Joseph S Fc -1
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lincoln Red Imps FC)
Lincoln Red Imps FC +2
81.9%
Draw +2
11.1%
St Joseph S Fc -2
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.06
0.50
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.47
0.50
0.62
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.36
1.86
0.29
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.27
1.47
0.40
1.33
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.35
1.55
0.45
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.25
0.31
1.43
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.73
0.75
0.50
1.86
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.14
1.86
0.14
1.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.47
1.80
0.60
1.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.70
2.00
1.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
2.20
0.35
1.73
0.36
2.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lincoln Red Imps FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kike Gómez33%
Christian Rutjens25%
Nicholas Pozo20%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayman El Ghobashy67%
Mandi60%
Graeme Torrilla50%
Jaylan Hankins40%
Joe33%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo33%
Tjay De Barr17%
Kike Gómez17%
Toni Kolega0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe33%
Toni Kolega17%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Juanje Argüez17%
Mandi0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Toni0%
Kike Gómez0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nano20%
Kike Gómez17%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Tjay De Barr0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Lincoln Red Imps FC and St Joseph S Fc have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe