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Lincoln vs Derby Result & Analysis

Date: 20/01/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 0-0
Lincoln
Lincoln
Vs
30%
31%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Derby
Derby
England: League One
Referee: O Yates
Match preview & prediction

Lincoln’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just over one goal per game, while Derby’s away attack averages more than two goals, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours an away win, with a 39% chance, a draw 31%, and a home win 30%. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% probability. Lincoln will score about 1.27 goals and concede 1.09 against an opponent of similar strength, whereas Derby will net 2.14 and allow 1.14. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 89.9%, Under 3.5 goals at 81.0%, Under 23.5 fouls at 80.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.3%, and Over 8.5 corners at 71.9%. These picks reflect the low-scoring, defensively balanced nature of the match.

Results analysis

The 0-0 draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite was Derby, chosen by the model with a 39% chance of victory. The model’s call was wrong, and the match ended in a stalemate. Lincoln were coming off a draw, while Derby had just secured a win, yet neither side could break the deadlock. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 25.5 fouls at 89.9%, Under 3.5 goals at 81.0%, Under 23.5 fouls at 80.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.3%, and Over 8.5 corners at 71.9%. The game delivered exactly what the model predicted for those metrics.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lincoln win✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied 19.8% · @ 4.71
Edge
+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.61
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Derby win✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied 54.3% · @ 1.72
Edge
-15.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LincolnLincoln

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W22D30W00D11D13L01L12L02L11DA·LEY21/11H·BAR25/11A·CAM28/11A·WIG09/12H·REA16/12A·DER21/12H·BOL26/12H·NOR29/12A·BLA01/01A·WYC13/01
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.131.290.930.941.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.041.251.271.090.851.38
vs Weaker (6)1.330.671.330.331.331.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DerbyDerby

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W30W11D31W10W32W23L31W32WH·BRI25/11A·POR28/11A·LEY09/12H·WYC16/12H·LIN21/12A·WIG26/12A·OXF29/12H·PET01/01A·FLE06/01H·BUR15/01
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.800.971.730.931.871.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.871.271.621.382.141.14
vs Weaker (15)1.730.671.860.431.620.88
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.9%
@ 2.04-7.1%
Under 2.5
61.1%
@ 1.74+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0 ✓
11.9%
0-1
11.6%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.1%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.6%
Lincoln goals ↓
Derby goals →
01234
012%12%7.9%3.2%1.0%
19.5%15%8.1%3.3%1.0%
25.6%6.8%4.1%1.7%0.5%
31.9%2.3%1.4%0.6%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lincoln goals (down), columns = Derby goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Lincoln is 0.39 points worse than Derby in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Lincoln is 0.28 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.70).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Lincoln is 0.07 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 0.80).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Lincoln is 8.5 percentage points worse than Derby in terms of average possession (43% vs 51%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

LincolnLincoln

For 3.7 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

14077288414341556423643141012147611697A·WYCA·BLAH·NORH·BOLA·DERH·REAA·WIGA·CAMH·BARA·LEY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5

🟨 Cards

8011132541323344221122475568422A·WYCA·BLAH·NORH·BOLA·DERH·REAA·WIGA·CAMH·BARA·LEY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.3 · Total 22.9

⚠️ Fouls

31061013188111276131414131518139971316311919192828311820A·WYCA·BLAH·NORH·BOLA·DERH·REAA·WIGA·CAMH·BARA·LEY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DerbyDerby

For 6.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.5

🚩 Corners

210431131111925643524869817141221117712159H·BURA·FLEH·PETA·OXFA·WIGH·LINH·WYCA·LEYA·PORH·BRI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

8011111413423531221225758320H·BURA·FLEH·PETA·OXFA·WIGH·LINH·WYCA·LEYA·PORH·BRI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 8.8 · Total 19.6

⚠️ Fouls

24010129119417413111368815891251222201321241916232117H·BURA·FLEH·PETA·OXFA·WIGH·LINH·WYCA·LEYA·PORH·BRI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

LincolnLincoln

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.98.69.24.14.04.121.620.022.9
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (39)9.29.29.23.94.13.921.219.722.6
vs Weaker (11)7.85.89.04.64.05.022.921.523.7
% over line48%30%63%58%57%59%52%39%63%
% under line52%70%37%42%43%41%48%61%37%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DerbyDerby

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.110.411.83.84.13.420.620.720.6
vs Stronger (1)8.08.0-7.07.0-16.016.0-
vs Similar (24)11.911.612.24.14.14.120.720.620.8
vs Weaker (25)10.49.511.33.33.82.820.721.120.3
% over line66%58%75%52%62%42%44%46%42%
% under line34%42%25%48%38%58%56%54%58%
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Charlton
11.2
Derby
11.1
Exeter
11.0
Oxford
11.0
Peterboro
10.9
Port Vale
10.9
Wycombe
10.8
Fleetwood Town
10.8
Bristol Rvs
10.6
Portsmouth
10.6
Bolton
10.2
Reading
10.2
Shrewsbury
10.1
Barnsley
10.0
Leyton Orient
9.9
Cambridge
9.8
Burton
9.7
Carlisle
9.6
Blackpool
9.5
Cheltenham
9.4
Stevenage
9.4
Wigan
9.4
Northampton
9.2
Lincoln
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Wigan
5.0
Portsmouth
4.8
Bristol Rvs
4.7
Fleetwood Town
4.4
Port Vale
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.2
Oxford
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.2
Cheltenham
4.1
Stevenage
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Exeter
4.1
Bolton
4.0
Charlton
4.0
Reading
4.0
Carlisle
3.9
Cambridge
3.9
Northampton
3.9
Barnsley
3.9
Blackpool
3.8
Wycombe
3.8
Derby
3.8
Peterboro
3.7
Burton
3.3

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
24.7
Portsmouth
24.5
Wigan
23.4
Bristol Rvs
23.1
Oxford
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.7
Blackpool
22.4
Bolton
22.2
Cheltenham
21.9
Cambridge
21.9
Port Vale
21.7
Reading
21.7
Northampton
21.6
Lincoln
21.6
Shrewsbury
21.3
Barnsley
21.2
Charlton
21.2
Wycombe
20.9
Peterboro
20.9
Exeter
20.8
Carlisle
20.7
Derby
20.6
Leyton Orient
20.6
Burton
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.1%
Under 9.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.8%
Under 3.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
33.4%
Under 21.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LincolnLincoln

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W20W00D10W11D00D01L01L01LA·LEY21/11H·BAR25/11A·CAM28/11A·WIG09/12H·REA16/12A·DER21/12H·BOL26/12H·NOR29/12A·BLA01/01A·WYC13/01
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.370.500.360.500.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.460.420.450.360.460.46
vs Weaker (6)0.670.170.670.330.670.00
Clean sheet %67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DerbyDerby

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W00D11D10W12L11D20W10WH·BRI25/11A·POR28/11A·LEY09/12H·WYC16/12H·LIN21/12A·WIG26/12A·OXF29/12H·PET01/01A·FLE06/01H·BUR15/01
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.430.600.330.930.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.730.670.380.621.140.71
vs Weaker (15)0.800.200.860.000.750.38
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LincolnLincoln

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L10W00D01L02L01L11D01L10WA·LEY21/11H·BAR25/11A·CAM28/11A·WIG09/12H·REA16/12A·DER21/12H·BOL26/12H·NOR29/12A·BLA01/01A·WYC13/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.770.790.570.440.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.580.830.820.730.380.92
vs Weaker (6)0.670.500.670.000.671.00
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DerbyDerby

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W20W11D20W00D20W12L11D22DH·BRI25/11A·POR28/11A·LEY09/12H·WYC16/12H·LIN21/12A·WIG26/12A·OXF29/12H·PET01/01A·FLE06/01H·BUR15/01
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.531.130.600.930.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.130.601.250.751.000.43
vs Weaker (15)0.930.471.000.430.880.50
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls89.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.581.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls80.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards78.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards76.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners71.9%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Lincoln · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ben House50%
Callum Elder33%
Adam Reach25%
Tom Bayliss25%
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild20%
Dom Jefferies20%
Tanto Olaofe20%
Robert Street20%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
George Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
Deji Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Mason Melia0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben House50%
Freddie Draper40%
Tom Hamer33%
Mason Melia33%
Conor McGrandles25%
Adam Reach25%
Tom Bayliss25%
Tanto Olaofe20%
Varfolomieiev Ivan20%
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
Callum Elder0%
Dom Jefferies0%
George Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
Robert Street0%
Deji Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Callum Elder67%
Tendayi Darikwa33%
Tom Bayliss25%
Freddie Draper20%
Varfolomieiev Ivan20%
Conor McGrandles0%
Ben House0%
Tom Hamer0%
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild0%
Adam Reach0%
Dom Jefferies0%
George Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
Robert Street0%
Deji Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Mason Melia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ben House50%
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild20%
Robert Street20%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
Adam Reach0%
Callum Elder0%
Tom Bayliss0%
Dom Jefferies0%
George Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
Deji Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Mason Melia0%
Derby · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Szmodics75%
Carlton Morris33%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis75%
Sondre Langås60%
D. Sanderson40%
Rhian Brewster25%
A. Mowatt25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
Oscar Fraulo25%
C. Taylor20%
M. Johnston20%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Bobby Clark0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby Clark40%
Carlton Morris33%
Oscar Fraulo25%
Rhian Brewster0%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Szmodics25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Lincoln's squad is €45m less valuable than Derby's (€12m vs €57m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Lincoln's attack is €22m less valuable than Derby's (€3m vs €25m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Lincoln's midfield is €12m less valuable than Derby's (€2m vs €14m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Lincoln's defence is €12m less valuable than Derby's (€6m vs €18m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
LIN wins
1
Draws
1
DER wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lincoln vs Derby · H/A from LIN
DateH/AGameScore
21/12/23ADerby Vs LIN3-1
14/02/23ADerby Vs LIN1-1
13/09/22HLIN Vs Derby2-0

LincolnLincoln

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/01/24AWycombe Vs LIN1-1
01/01/24ABlackpool Vs LIN2-0
29/12/23HLIN Vs Northampton1-2
26/12/23HLIN Vs Bolton0-1
21/12/23ADerby Vs LIN3-1
16/12/23HLIN Vs Reading1-1
09/12/23AWigan Vs LIN0-0
28/11/23ACambridge Vs LIN0-3
25/11/23HLIN Vs Barnsley2-2
21/11/23ALeyton Orient Vs LIN0-1

DerbyDerby

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/01/24HDER Vs Burton3-2
06/01/24AFleetwood Town Vs DER1-3
01/01/24HDER Vs Peterboro2-3
29/12/23AOxford Vs DER2-3
26/12/23AWigan Vs DER0-1
21/12/23HDER Vs Lincoln3-1
16/12/23HDER Vs Wycombe1-1
09/12/23ALeyton Orient Vs DER0-3
28/11/23APort Vale Vs DER0-1
25/11/23HDER Vs Bristol Rvs2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lincoln
Lincoln
England: League One
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.32
HomeDDDLL1.52
AwayWDLLD1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%39%26%
AVG goals2.061.962.15
Over 1.5 %68%61%74%
Over 2.5 %34%30%37%
Over 3.5 %12%13%11%
Scored1.081.131.04
Conceded0.980.831.11
BTTS42%35%48%
Clean Sheet40%43%37%
Corners8.908.579.19
Cards4.104.044.15
Derby
Derby
England: League One
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.86
HomeWDWLW1.88
AwayWWWWW1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%54%58%
AVG goals2.882.653.12
Over 1.5 %84%85%83%
Over 2.5 %54%46%62%
Over 3.5 %32%27%38%
Scored1.781.771.79
Conceded1.100.881.33
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet34%42%25%
Corners11.0810.4211.79
Cards3.764.083.42

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PortsmouthPortsmouth4697
61%
2.1
7841+37
2.6
74%
57%
30%
9.8
50%
5.0
70%
24.6
76%
32
135141.70.9
59%
2DerbyDerby4692
61%
2.0
7837+41
2.5
70%
54%
22%
11.3
67%
3.7
50%
21.4
50%
57
2514181.70.8
51%
3BoltonBolton4687
54%
1.9
8651+35
3.0
78%
52%
35%
10.7
61%
4.4
63%
23.3
67%
17
4491.91.1
60%
4PeterboroPeterboro4684
54%
1.8
8961+28
3.3
83%
67%
43%
11.2
52%
3.5
41%
19.8
41%
7
3131.91.3
62%
5OxfordOxford4677
48%
1.7
7956+23
2.9
89%
65%
30%
10.5
54%
4.4
63%
21.8
54%
20
6681.71.2
52%
6BarnsleyBarnsley4676
46%
1.7
8264+18
3.2
89%
65%
39%
10.6
57%
4.1
67%
19.8
33%
8
2331.81.4
54%
7LincolnLincoln4674
43%
1.6
6540+25
2.3
70%
39%
17%
9.6
54%
4.8
70%
22.5
59%
12
3261.40.9
43%
8BlackpoolBlackpool4673
46%
1.6
6548+17
2.5
65%
46%
26%
9.5
57%
4.2
61%
22.2
61%
11
4341.41.0
53%
9StevenageStevenage4671
41%
1.5
5746+11
2.2
61%
48%
22%
10.2
50%
4.5
59%
25.1
76%
7
2231.21.0
45%
10WiganWigan4670
43%
1.5
6356+7
2.6
76%
46%
22%
9.2
41%
5.4
74%
24.7
70%
7
2231.41.2
53%
11WycombeWycombe4665
37%
1.4
6055+5
2.5
67%
46%
28%
10.6
59%
3.9
59%
21.1
50%
10
3251.31.2
46%
12Leyton OrientLeyton Orient4665
39%
1.4
5355-2
2.3
61%
46%
22%
10.4
59%
3.8
57%
20.1
39%
10
4331.21.2
52%
13ExeterExeter4661
37%
1.3
4661-15
2.3
67%
46%
13%
11.8
70%
4.3
65%
21.5
54%
3
1111.01.3
54%
14NorthamptonNorthampton4660
37%
1.3
5766-9
2.7
78%
50%
24%
8.8
39%
3.5
50%
20.1
37%
3
1121.21.4
49%
15ReadingReading4659
35%
1.3
6870-2
3.0
80%
54%
39%
10.5
54%
3.7
50%
21.3
43%
10
3341.51.5
53%
16Bristol RvsBristol Rvs4657
35%
1.2
5268-16
2.6
85%
50%
20%
10.4
61%
4.5
63%
22.7
61%
5
2031.11.5
-
17CharltonCharlton4653
24%
1.2
6465-1
2.8
83%
52%
33%
10.8
61%
4.3
59%
20.8
43%
31
183101.41.4
52%
18CambridgeCambridge4648
26%
1.0
3961-22
2.2
67%
39%
17%
9.7
52%
4.1
65%
22.9
63%
5
2120.81.3
44%
19ShrewsburyShrewsbury4648
28%
1.0
3567-32
2.2
70%
39%
15%
10.6
59%
3.9
57%
21.5
46%
3
0120.81.5
41%
20BurtonBurton4646
26%
1.0
3967-28
2.3
70%
46%
17%
8.6
35%
3.9
59%
21.9
52%
5
1120.81.5
41%
21CheltenhamCheltenham4644
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.3
72%
46%
15%
10.1
57%
4.2
61%
23.8
70%
3
1110.91.4
44%
22Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town4643
22%
0.9
4972-23
2.6
78%
52%
24%
11.7
67%
4.1
63%
22.0
52%
3
1111.11.6
47%
23Port ValePort Vale4641
22%
0.9
4174-33
2.5
67%
46%
22%
11.1
63%
4.0
63%
20.5
50%
7
2230.91.6
49%
24CarlisleCarlisle4630
15%
0.7
4181-40
2.7
74%
46%
33%
9.9
57%
3.3
43%
19.8
43%
0
0000.91.8
46%
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →

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