Lincoln is coming off a defeat, having lost 1-2 to Middlesbrough in their last match. However, they have shown resilience at home, scoring an average of 2.78 goals and conceding just 1.11 goals per game against opponents of similar strength.
Portsmouth, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, scoring an average of 1.23 goals and conceding 1.54 goals per game against opponents of similar strength. The model predicts a Home win as the most likely match result, with a probability of 43%.
The expected total number of goals is 3.3, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 11.1%. The model suggests three selections: Over 1.5 goals, which has an 84.8% probability; Home or Draw, with an 82.2% probability and a 16% edge; and Home or Away, with a 78.1% probability and a 6% edge.
In terms of probabilities, the Home win is the favourite, with a 43% chance, followed by the draw at 25%, and the Away win at 32%.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Lincoln, failed to deliver a home win and instead slipped to a 1-3 defeat. The model had picked a home win with a 42 % probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The final score of 1-3 gave Portsmouth a clear away victory. The modelās other selections performed largely as expected: Under 7.5, Under 6.5, Under 5.5, Home over 0.5 goals and Over 1.5 all hit, with probabilities of 98.1 %, 95.0 %, 88.5 %, 88.5 % and 85.2 % respectively. The selections for Home +2 handicap, Away under 3.5 goals and Away under 2.5 goals missed, with probabilities of 93.1 %, 97.3 % and 89.7 %. The match extended Portsmouthās recent run, while Lincolnās streak of two straight defeats ended.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Lincoln winā Miss
41.8%
Avg Implied 40.0% · @ 2.35
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.48
Unibet
2.43
Dafabet
2.42
888Sport
2.40
Betano
2.37
Drawā Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.29
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Superbet
3.35
Portsmouth winā Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied 31.5% · @ 2.97
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.16
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Superbet
3.05
1xBet
3.05
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Lincoln
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
0.87
2.71
0.86
1.94
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
2.39
0.86
2.85
0.92
2.00
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portsmouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.20
1.27
1.27
1.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.80
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.33
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.36
1.15
1.15
1.33
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.2%
@ 1.31+13.5%
Under 1.5
14.8%
@ 3.31-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
BetVictor
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Betano
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.1%
@ 1.97+16.2%
Under 2.5
35.9%
@ 1.81-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.1%
@ 3.37+14.3%
Under 3.5
57.9%
@ 1.30-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.49
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Under
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.1%
@ 1.73+12.5%
No
33.9%
@ 2.00-12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
No
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.02
888Sport
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 5.95+3.3%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.73+3.5%
1-2
7.7%@ 9.91+3.2%
2-2
6.8%@ 12.50+3.2%
2-0
5.6%@ 11.07+1.5%
1-0
5.4%@ 7.56-0.6%
3-1
5.1%@ 17.68+2.5%
0-1
4.7%@ 8.60-0.6%
Lincoln goals ↓
Portsmouth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.7%
4.4%
2.3%
0.9%
1
5.4%
11%
7.7%
4.0%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.8%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.3%
5.1%
4.0%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.4%
2.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lincoln goals (down), columns = Portsmouth goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Lincoln is 0.25 points worse than Portsmouth in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.20).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Lincoln is 0.17 goals worse than Portsmouth in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.07).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Lincoln is 0.48 goals worse than Portsmouth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.39).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lincoln or Drawā Miss
82.2%
Avg Implied 68.5% · @ 1.37
Edge
+13.7%
42%
25%
33%
covers Lincoln + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.42
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Lincoln or Portsmouthā Hit
78.1%
Avg Implied 71.4% · @ 1.31
Edge
+6.7%
42%
25%
33%
covers Lincoln + Portsmouth
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Draw or Portsmouthā Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied 60.1% · @ 1.56
Edge
-20.4%
42%
25%
33%
covers Draw + Portsmouth
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lincoln over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.5%
@ 1.26+14.6%
Under
11.5%
@ 3.56-14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.86
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Lincoln over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.6%
@ 2.28+22.8%
Under
36.4%
@ 1.58-22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
888Sport
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Lincoln over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.7%
@ 5.12+18.5%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.14-18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Lincoln over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 12.04+9.4%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.03-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Portsmouth over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.3%
@ 1.34-2.1%
Under
32.7%
@ 3.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.10
10Bet
3.10
888Sport
3.10
Portsmouth over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.7%
@ 2.70-3.8%
Under
69.3%
@ 1.42+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.92
1xBet
2.78
Marathonbet
2.78
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Portsmouth over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
10.3%
@ 6.57-3.9%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.08+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Portsmouth over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 14.23-4.0%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
19.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Marathonbet
9.70
Under
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
āļø 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lincoln, so a minus line means Lincoln give that many goals of a start and Portsmouth receive them. At -1, Lincoln must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lincoln win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lincoln)Actual: Portsmouth
Lincoln -2
19.9%
@ 10.23+11.2%
Draw -2
18.4%
@ 6.64+4.9%
Portsmouth +2
61.7%
@ 1.16-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
9.10
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Away
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Lincoln)Actual: Portsmouth
Lincoln -1
38.3%
@ 4.54+18.7%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 3.88-1.1%
Portsmouth +1
39.7%
@ 1.56-17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.30
Draw
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Superbet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Away
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.53
Handicap +1 (Lincoln)Actual: Portsmouth
Lincoln +1
82.2%
@ 1.36+16.6%
Draw +1
10.9%
@ 4.45-9.2%
Portsmouth -1
6.9%
@ 6.20-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
10Bet
4.20
Away
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Handicap +2 (Lincoln)Actual: Draw
Lincoln +2
93.1%
@ 1.09+11.5%
Draw +2
4.9%
@ 7.71-6.7%
Portsmouth -2
2.0%
@ 12.92-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.60
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lincoln
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.37
1.36
0.14
1.12
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.29
0.39
1.46
0.15
1.13
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portsmouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.60
0.67
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
1.50
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.64
0.46
0.62
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.11
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
10Bet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.20
William Hil
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Lincoln over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Lincoln over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Superbet
2.22
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
7.30
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lincoln
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.50
1.36
0.71
0.81
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.11
0.46
1.38
0.77
0.87
0.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portsmouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.60
0.60
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.72
0.69
0.54
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+4.0%
ā Hit
Under 6.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-1.1%
ā Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.1%
1.09
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
+11.5%
ā Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
+3.9%
ā Miss
Under 5.5
88.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-3.8%
ā Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.5%
1.26
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
+14.6%
ā Hit
Over 1.5
85.2%
1.31
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
BetVictor
1.32
+13.5%
ā Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
-
-9.4%
ā Hit
Home or Draw
82.2%
1.37
10Bet
1.42
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
+13.7%
ā Miss
Home +1 handicap
82.2%
1.36
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+16.6%
ā Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Home or Away
78.1%
1.31
William Hil
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
+6.7%
ā Hit
Under 4.5
76.6%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-9.2%
ā Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
1.34
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
-
-
+6.4%
ā Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
1.47
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
+7.6%
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
Lincoln
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ben House50%
C. Elder25%
A. Reach20%
Tom Bayliss20%
R. Hackett17%
Dom Jefferies17%
Tanto Olaofe17%
R. Street17%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
G. Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei CoubiČ0%
M. Melia0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben House50%
Conor McGrandles40%
Tom Hamer33%
Freddie Draper33%
M. Melia25%
A. Reach20%
Tom Bayliss20%
Tanto Olaofe17%
Varfolomieiev Ivan17%
R. Hackett0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
C. Elder0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
R. Street0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei CoubiČ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
C. Elder50%
Tendayi Darikwa33%
Tom Bayliss20%
Freddie Draper17%
Varfolomieiev Ivan17%
Conor McGrandles0%
Ben House0%
Tom Hamer0%
R. Hackett0%
A. Reach0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
R. Street0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei CoubiČ0%
M. Melia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ben House50%
R. Hackett33%
R. Street33%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
A. Reach0%
C. Elder0%
Tom Bayliss0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei CoubiČ0%
M. Melia0%
Portsmouth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Segecic40%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen25%
Ebou Adams20%
Terry Devlin20%
M. MilovanoviÄ20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ebou Adams20%
R. Shein20%
Terry Devlin20%
A. Segecic20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
M. MilovanoviÄ0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Kamara25%
Ebou Adams20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Segecic0%
M. MilovanoviÄ0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Segecic80%
A. Kamara25%
Colby Bishop20%
N. Schmid0%
Ebou Adams0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
M. MilovanoviÄ0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Lincoln's squad is €21m less valuable than Portsmouth's (€12m vs €32m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Lincoln's attack is €10m less valuable than Portsmouth's (€3m vs €13m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Lincoln's midfield is €3m less valuable than Portsmouth's (€2m vs €5m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Lincoln's defence is €8m less valuable than Portsmouth's (€6m vs €14m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Cardiff
Norwich
Stoke
Burnley
Preston