This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.57
1.25
1.06
0.86
2.14
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.33
1.17
1.17
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.79
1.63
0.89
1.00
0.70
2.20
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
2.00
5.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.9%
@ 2.07-1.7%
Under 2.5
56.1%
@ 1.73+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
10.0%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.9%
Lincoln goals ↓
Reading goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.0%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.8%
9.2%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.9%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lincoln goals (down), columns = Reading goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Lincoln is 0.33 points better than Reading in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Lincoln is 0.07 goals worse than Reading in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Lincoln is 0.65 goals better than Reading in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Lincoln is 9.8 percentage points worse than Reading in terms of average possession (43% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lincoln
For 5.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Reading
For 5.4 · Against 7.4 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 7.7 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lincoln
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.5
9.1
3.9
3.8
4.1
21.4
19.9
22.8
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
12.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
21.0
21.0
-
vs Similar (36)
9.0
8.9
9.1
3.7
3.6
3.7
21.2
19.7
22.7
vs Weaker (13)
8.1
6.4
9.1
4.7
4.2
5.0
22.2
20.4
23.2
% over line
46%
29%
62%
56%
54%
58%
50%
38%
62%
% under line
54%
71%
38%
44%
46%
42%
50%
62%
38%
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.4
11.5
3.9
4.3
3.6
21.2
22.6
19.8
vs Stronger (25)
9.5
8.0
10.8
4.2
4.6
3.9
22.8
24.6
21.1
vs Similar (23)
11.3
10.9
11.8
3.7
4.2
3.2
20.0
20.8
19.0
vs Weaker (2)
11.5
7.0
16.0
3.0
2.0
4.0
16.0
20.0
12.0
% over line
58%
44%
72%
56%
60%
52%
36%
36%
36%
% under line
42%
56%
28%
44%
40%
48%
64%
64%
64%
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Exeter
11.2
Charlton
11.1
Oxford
11.1
Portsmouth
10.9
Derby
10.8
Wycombe
10.7
Port Vale
10.7
Bristol Rvs
10.7
Fleetwood Town
10.6
Peterboro
10.5
Reading
10.4
Carlisle
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Barnsley
10.1
Shrewsbury
10.0
Burton
9.9
Cambridge
9.9
Blackpool
9.6
Cheltenham
9.5
Stevenage
9.4
Leyton Orient
9.4
Wigan
9.3
Northampton
9.0
Lincoln
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fleetwood Town
4.6
Portsmouth
4.5
Wigan
4.5
Bristol Rvs
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Oxford
4.3
Bolton
4.1
Port Vale
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Stevenage
4.0
Lincoln
3.9
Reading
3.9
Barnsley
3.9
Cambridge
3.9
Exeter
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Northampton
3.7
Charlton
3.7
Peterboro
3.7
Derby
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Carlisle
3.6
Wycombe
3.5
Burton
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
24.6
Portsmouth
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.4
Wigan
23.3
Oxford
23.1
Bolton
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.7
Cambridge
22.2
Port Vale
22.0
Blackpool
22.0
Barnsley
21.8
Wycombe
21.6
Charlton
21.6
Leyton Orient
21.6
Northampton
21.5
Lincoln
21.4
Peterboro
21.3
Reading
21.2
Cheltenham
21.0
Shrewsbury
20.7
Derby
20.6
Carlisle
20.6
Exeter
20.5
Burton
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.7%
Under 9.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.0%
Under 3.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
51.9%
Under 21.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lincoln
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.33
0.64
0.43
0.62
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.39
0.60
0.50
0.62
0.31
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.14
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.75
0.62
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.67
0.83
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.68
0.56
0.44
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lincoln
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.86
0.36
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.61
0.90
0.50
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.50
0.44
0.43
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.95
0.33
0.56
0.30
1.30
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lincoln · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ben House50%
Callum Elder33%
Adam Reach25%
Tom Bayliss25%
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild20%
Dom Jefferies20%
Tanto Olaofe20%
Robert Street20%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
George Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
Deji Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Mason Melia0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben House50%
Freddie Draper40%
Tom Hamer33%
Mason Melia33%
Conor McGrandles25%
Adam Reach25%
Tom Bayliss25%
Tanto Olaofe20%
Varfolomieiev Ivan20%
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
Callum Elder0%
Dom Jefferies0%
George Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
Robert Street0%
Deji Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Callum Elder67%
Tendayi Darikwa33%
Tom Bayliss25%
Freddie Draper20%
Varfolomieiev Ivan20%
Conor McGrandles0%
Ben House0%
Tom Hamer0%
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild0%
Adam Reach0%
Dom Jefferies0%
George Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
Robert Street0%
Deji Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Mason Melia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ben House50%
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild20%
Robert Street20%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
Adam Reach0%
Callum Elder0%
Tom Bayliss0%
Dom Jefferies0%
George Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
Deji Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Mason Melia0%
Reading · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Randell Williams33%
Jacob Brown33%
Paddy Lane33%
Joel Pereira0%
Daniel Kyerewaa0%
Charlie Savage0%
Benn Ward0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Randell Williams33%
Charlie Savage33%
Benn Ward33%
Joel Pereira0%
Jacob Brown0%
Daniel Kyerewaa0%
Paddy Lane0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Kyerewaa33%
Paddy Lane33%
Kyreece Lisbie33%
Joel Pereira0%
Randell Williams0%
Jacob Brown0%
Charlie Savage0%
Benn Ward0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Kyerewaa33%
Joel Pereira0%
Randell Williams0%
Jacob Brown0%
Charlie Savage0%
Paddy Lane0%
Benn Ward0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Lincoln's squad is €2m more valuable than Reading's (€12m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Lincoln and Reading have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Lincoln and Reading have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Lincoln's defence is €3m more valuable than Reading's (€6m vs €4m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Barnsley
Blackpool
Stevenage
Wigan
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Northampton
Bristol Rvs
Charlton
Cambridge
Shrewsbury
Burton
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
Port Vale
Carlisle