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Lions Gibraltar vs Europa Result & Analysis

Date: 04/04/2026
Time: 14:30
Final 0-3
Lions Gibraltar
Lions Gibraltar
Vs
25%
24%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Europa
Europa
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

In the Gibraltar Premier Division, Europa will face Lions Gibraltar on April 4, 2026. The recent form of both teams is telling - Europa comes off a convincing 4-1 win against Mons Calpe, while Lions Gibraltar drew 3-3 against St Joseph S FC. This high-scoring narrative is reinforced by the expected total goals of 3.3 and the most likely total goals being 3. The model's selection is the most likely outcome: an away win. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.8%.

At home, Lions Gibraltar have averaged 0.75 goals scored and 2.5 goals conceded against stronger opponents. In contrast, Europa has averaged 2.27 goals scored and 0.36 goals conceded away against weaker opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 84.8%. The away side is the favourite, with a 51% chance of winning, while the home side has a 25% chance and the draw a 24% chance. The away win percentage is 51%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the home win percentage is 25%.

Results analysis

The win extends Lions Gibraltar's recent run of draws, but they ultimately fell to a 0-3 defeat, as Europa's away form proved decisive. The actual result was an away win, with Europa's strong performance on the road ultimately paying off. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Europa, to win, with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's selection, Away win, was correct. In addition to the favourite, the model suggested Over 1.5 goals, which hit with a probability of 84.8%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lions Gibraltar win✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa win✓ Hit
50.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L20W70W03L11D04L12L50W51W13LA·EUR07/12A·COL22/12H·MAN12/01H·MON19/01A·MAG24/01H·ST 07/02H·LIN19/02A·GLA23/02H·HOU08/03A·MON22/03
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.932.001.791.382.06
vs Stronger (13)1.312.692.002.000.883.12
vs Similar (9)1.111.670.802.001.501.25
vs Weaker (8)2.881.003.501.252.250.75
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EuropaEuropa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W30W01L13L51W10W00D60W50W31WH·MAG13/12A·EUR21/12H·ST 09/01A·LIN18/01H·GLA26/01A·COL07/02H·LIN12/02H·HOU22/02A·MAN02/03H·LYN21/03
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.002.131.131.930.87
vs Stronger (7)0.572.000.001.671.002.25
vs Similar (3)3.000.672.001.003.500.50
vs Weaker (20)2.400.702.731.002.000.33
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.1%
2-1
6.5%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
6.1%
0-0
4.8%
Lions Gibraltar goals ↓
Europa goals →
01234
04.8%6.4%7.1%4.6%2.2%
14.1%11%9.5%6.1%3.0%
23.4%6.5%6.3%4.1%2.0%
31.5%2.9%2.8%1.8%0.9%
40.5%1.0%0.9%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lions Gibraltar goals (down), columns = Europa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lions Gibraltar is 0.48 points worse than Europa in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 2.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lions Gibraltar and Europa are level in goals scored per game (both 1.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Lions Gibraltar is 0.85 goals worse than Europa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W40W01L10W03L00D40W31W12LA·EUR07/12A·COL22/12H·MAN12/01H·MON19/01A·MAG24/01H·ST 07/02H·LIN19/02A·GLA23/02H·HOU08/03A·MON22/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.931.140.710.881.12
vs Stronger (13)0.771.461.001.000.621.75
vs Similar (9)0.670.560.400.401.000.75
vs Weaker (8)1.750.502.250.751.250.25
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EuropaEuropa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D00D11D20W00D00D40W10W20WH·MAG13/12A·EUR21/12H·ST 09/01A·LIN18/01H·GLA26/01A·COL07/02H·LIN12/02H·HOU22/02A·MAN02/03H·LYN21/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.501.200.600.530.40
vs Stronger (7)0.140.710.000.670.250.75
vs Similar (3)1.330.672.001.001.000.50
vs Weaker (20)1.050.401.450.550.560.22
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
MAG (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
LG wins
0
Draws
6
EUR wins

Head-to-head

Lions Gibraltar vs Europa · H/A from LG
DateH/AGameScore
21/11/25HLG Vs Europa1-0
07/11/25AEuropa Vs LG3-2
25/04/25HLG Vs Europa1-4
15/03/25AEuropa Vs LG3-0
10/11/24HLG Vs Europa2-4
13/04/24AEuropa Vs LG1-2
16/12/23HLG Vs Europa0-5
10/12/22HLG Vs Europa0-3

Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/26AMons Calpe Vs LG3-1
08/03/26HLG Vs Hound Dogs5-1
23/02/26AGlacis United Vs LG0-5
19/02/26HLG Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC1-2
07/02/26HLG Vs St Joseph S Fc0-4
24/01/26AMagpies Vs LG1-1
19/01/26HLG Vs Mons Calpe0-3
12/01/26HLG Vs Manchester 627-0
22/12/25ACollege 1975 Vs LG0-2
07/12/25AEuropa Point Vs LG2-1

EuropaEuropa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26HEUR Vs Lynx3-1
02/03/26AManchester 62 Vs EUR0-5
22/02/26HEUR Vs Hound Dogs6-0
12/02/26HEUR Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC0-0
07/02/26ACollege 1975 Vs EUR0-1
26/01/26HEUR Vs Glacis United5-1
18/01/26ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs EUR3-1
09/01/26HEUR Vs St Joseph S Fc0-1
21/12/25AEuropa Point Vs EUR0-3
13/12/25HEUR Vs Magpies2-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Lions Gibraltar
Lions Gibraltar
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.38
HomeWLLLW1.54
AwayLWDWL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%35%
AVG goals3.483.793.19
Over 1.5 %92%88%96%
Over 2.5 %70%75%65%
Over 3.5 %42%54%31%
Scored1.701.961.46
Conceded1.781.831.73
BTTS64%62%65%
Clean Sheet14%12%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Europa
Europa
Gibraltar: Premier Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW2.02
HomeLWDWW2.04
AwayWWLWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%64%64%
AVG goals3.183.203.16
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %72%68%76%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored2.162.202.12
Conceded1.021.001.04
BTTS52%44%60%
Clean Sheet40%44%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC2772
85%
2.7
8917+72
3.9
93%
81%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.30.6
-
2St Joseph S FcSt Joseph S Fc2763
74%
2.3
9617+79
4.2
81%
74%
70%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0013.60.6
-
3EuropaEuropa2756
67%
2.1
5321+32
2.7
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Mons CalpeMons Calpe2753
63%
2.0
6335+28
3.6
93%
78%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
5Lions GibraltarLions Gibraltar2743
48%
1.6
5344+9
3.6
89%
70%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
6LynxLynx2734
37%
1.3
3845-7
3.1
70%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
7MagpiesMagpies2228
36%
1.3
2532-7
2.6
68%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
8Europa PointEuropa Point2222
32%
1.0
3161-30
4.2
86%
82%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.8
-
9Manchester 62Manchester 622217
23%
0.8
2879-51
4.9
86%
82%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.6
-
10College 1975College 19752214
14%
0.6
1545-30
2.7
68%
36%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
11Glacis UnitedGlacis United2212
14%
0.5
1857-39
3.4
86%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
12Hound DogsHound Dogs228
5%
0.4
1066-56
3.5
91%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →

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