The model favours an away win, with a 53% chance for Europa to come away with the victory, 24% for a draw and 23% for Lions Gibraltar to win. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.1% probability. Lions Gibraltar, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Europa, on the road to a weaker side, average 2.25 scored and only 0.25 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 6.5 (95.9%), Away +2 handicap (90.6%), Under 5.5 (90.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.8%) and Away over 0.5 goals (85.6%). Lions Gibraltar have been unbeaten in their last five matches, while Europa are coming off a draw. This match is likely to see Europa’s offensive edge prevail, but the 1-1 scoreline remains the most probable outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lions Gibraltar win
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa win
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.73
2.00
1.57
1.75
1.88
vs Stronger (12)
1.67
2.58
1.67
1.67
1.67
3.50
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.33
1.00
1.75
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
2.78
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.83
2.19
1.00
1.86
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.14
1.62
1.00
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.38
0.56
2.75
1.00
2.00
0.12
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.7%
Under 2.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.3%
Under 3.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.9%
0-1
7.6%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.8%
Lions Gibraltar goals ↓
Europa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
7.6%
7.9%
4.8%
2.2%
1
4.7%
12%
9.7%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.5%
6.4%
5.9%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.4%
2.6%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lions Gibraltar goals (down), columns = Europa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lions Gibraltar is 0.48 points worse than Europa in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 2.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lions Gibraltar and Europa are level in goals scored per game (both 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Lions Gibraltar is 0.85 goals worse than Europa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lions Gibraltar or Draw
49.4%
Avg Implied -
24%
25%
51%
covers Lions Gibraltar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar or Europa
75.0%
Avg Implied -
24%
25%
51%
covers Lions Gibraltar + Europa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Europa
75.7%
Avg Implied -
24%
25%
51%
covers Draw + Europa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 0.5
Over
83.9%
Under
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 3.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lions Gibraltar, so a minus line means Lions Gibraltar give that many goals of a start and Europa receive them. At -1, Lions Gibraltar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lions Gibraltar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lions Gibraltar)
Lions Gibraltar -2
3.3%
Draw -2
7.0%
Europa +2
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lions Gibraltar)
Lions Gibraltar -1
10.3%
Draw -1
14.1%
Europa +1
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lions Gibraltar)
Lions Gibraltar +1
49.4%
Draw +1
21.6%
Europa -1
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lions Gibraltar)
Lions Gibraltar +2
71.0%
Draw +2
15.8%
Europa -2
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lions Gibraltar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.93
1.21
0.86
1.19
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.54
0.86
1.14
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.44
2.25
0.75
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.25
0.50
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.50
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.25
1.88
0.50
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lions Gibraltar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.79
0.93
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.15
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
0.94
0.50
1.29
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.31
0.88
0.50
1.25
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Europa have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Europa have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Europa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Europa have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Magpies
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe