The Lions Gibraltar are clear favourites, with the model assigning a 73% chance of a home win. Their recent unbeaten run and the fact that they play at home against a weaker side explain the high probability. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to an open game, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 9.2% chance. Lions Gibraltar average 3.5 goals scored and concede 1.25 at home, while the Hound Dogs average only 0.67 goals scored and 3.22 conceded on the road against stronger opponents. The model’s suggested picks cover a range of outcomes: Away under 2.5 HT goals99.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals99.0%, Away under 3.5 goals98.2%, Under 7.596.6%, Home +2 handicap96.4%, Away under 1.5 HT goals96.2%, Home over 0.5 goals93.3%, and Away under 1.5 2H goals93.2%. The probabilities for the main results are 73%home win, 16% draw, and 11% away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lions Gibraltar win
73.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs win
10.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.73
2.00
1.57
1.75
1.88
vs Stronger (12)
1.67
2.58
1.67
1.67
1.67
3.50
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.33
1.00
1.75
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
2.78
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
2.91
0.33
3.08
0.64
2.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
3.44
0.22
3.67
0.67
3.22
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
9% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.1%
Under 2.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.1%
Under 3.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
8.3%
3-1
8.1%
1-1
7.4%
1-0
6.2%
4-0
5.6%
4-1
5.5%
Lions Gibraltar goals ↓
Hound Dogs goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
1.8%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
1
6.2%
7.4%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
2
9.2%
9.0%
4.4%
1.4%
0.4%
3
8.3%
8.1%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
4
5.6%
5.5%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lions Gibraltar goals (down), columns = Hound Dogs goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lions Gibraltar is 1.23 points better than Hound Dogs in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 0.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Europa
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lions Gibraltar is 1.51 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 0.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Lions Gibraltar is 1.37 goals better than Hound Dogs in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lions Gibraltar or Draw
89.5%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
11%
covers Lions Gibraltar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar or Hound Dogs
83.5%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
11%
covers Lions Gibraltar + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hound Dogs
27.0%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
11%
covers Draw + Hound Dogs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5
Over
93.3%
Under
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5
Over
75.1%
Under
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 3.5
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lions Gibraltar, so a minus line means Lions Gibraltar give that many goals of a start and Hound Dogs receive them. At -1, Lions Gibraltar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lions Gibraltar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lions Gibraltar)
Lions Gibraltar -2
32.3%
Draw -2
20.5%
Hound Dogs +2
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lions Gibraltar)
Lions Gibraltar -1
52.9%
Draw -1
20.1%
Hound Dogs +1
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lions Gibraltar)
Lions Gibraltar +1
89.5%
Draw +1
6.9%
Hound Dogs -1
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lions Gibraltar)
Lions Gibraltar +2
96.4%
Draw +2
2.7%
Hound Dogs -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lions Gibraltar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.93
1.21
0.86
1.19
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.54
0.86
1.14
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.44
2.25
0.75
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.22
1.57
0.08
1.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.78
0.11
2.00
0.33
1.56
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.2%
Under 0.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.0%
Under 1.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
Under 2.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
68.0%
Under
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lions Gibraltar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.79
0.93
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.15
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hound Dogs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.26
1.35
0.25
1.33
0.27
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.67
0.11
1.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.7%
Under 0.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.9%
Under 1.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.8%
Under 2.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
75.1%
Under
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 2H
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 2H
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar's squad is €1m more valuable than Hound Dogs's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Hound Dogs have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Hound Dogs have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Hound Dogs have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe