Lincoln Red Imps FC are the clear favourites to take the win in this Premier Division match against Lions Gibraltar, with the model predicting an Away win as the most likely outcome. This is largely due to the away side's impressive form, having gone unbeaten in their last 5 matches, and their strong away record against weaker opponents, scoring an average of 3.75 goals and conceding just 0.62.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.6 goals and the most likely total being 3. The most likely scoreline is 0-2 in favour of Lincoln Red Imps FC, with a probability of 9.5%. Lions Gibraltar, however, have struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.6 goals and conceding 2.6 against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the Away win, with a probability of 73.3%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals with a probability of 88.5%, and Over 2.5 goals with a probability of 70.5%. The home win percentage is 10%, the draw percentage is 16%, and the away win percentage is 73.3%.
Results analysis
In a major upset, Lincoln Red Imps FC secured a 1-1 draw against the Lions Gibraltar, extending their unbeaten run. The match's actual result defied the expected outcome, as the pre-match favourite, Lions Gibraltar, failed to deliver. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 73.3%. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. The suggested picks included Over 1.5, which hit with a probability of 88.5%, and Over 2.5, which missed with a probability of 70.5%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lions Gibraltar win✗ Miss
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC win✗ Miss
73.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.97
2.00
1.86
1.38
2.06
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
2.71
1.67
2.17
0.88
3.12
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.62
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.25
vs Weaker (8)
2.88
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.97
1.00
3.31
0.75
2.57
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.00
2.38
1.25
1.50
0.75
3.25
vs Weaker (22)
3.68
0.50
4.00
0.50
3.30
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.5%
Under 2.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.4%
Under 3.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
9.5%
1-2
9.1%
0-3
8.5%
1-3
8.1%
1-1 ✓
7.4%
0-1
6.4%
0-4
5.7%
1-4
5.4%
Lions Gibraltar goals ↓
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
6.4%
9.5%
8.5%
5.7%
1
1.8%
7.4%
9.1%
8.1%
5.4%
2
1.2%
3.2%
4.3%
3.9%
2.6%
3
0.4%
1.0%
1.4%
1.2%
0.8%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lions Gibraltar goals (down), columns = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
Manchester 62
0.77
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lions Gibraltar is 1.07 points worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Manchester 62
1.27
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lions Gibraltar is 1.33 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 3.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Manchester 62
3.59
Lions Gibraltar is 1.00 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lions Gibraltar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.03
1.14
0.93
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.57
0.83
1.33
0.62
1.75
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.50
2.25
0.75
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.38
0.50
1.07
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.12
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.64
0.32
1.75
0.33
1.50
0.30
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
MAG (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
MAG (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 12. Games History
Head-to-head
Lions Gibraltar vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · H/A from LG
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
St Joseph S Fc
Europa
Mons Calpe
Lynx
Magpies
Europa Point
Manchester 62
College 1975
Glacis United
Hound Dogs