The Lions Gibraltar host Magpies in the Gibraltar Premier Division, with a high-scoring match expected. Recent form suggests that both teams have been involved in closely contested matches, with Lions Gibraltar coming off a draw against St Joseph S Fc and Magpies having suffered a defeat to Lincoln Red Imps FC.
The model predicts a home win, with a 42% chance of Lions Gibraltar winning, 24% chance of a draw, and 34% chance of Magpies winning. The expected total number of goals is 3.5, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.1%.
At home, Lions Gibraltar average 1 goal scored and 2 goals conceded against similar opponents. Magpies, when away, average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 87.3%. The home win percentage is 42%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 34%. The model's other selections are the home win, with a probability of 42%, and the draw, with a probability of 24%.
Results analysis
The Lions Gibraltar were tipped to win, but the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised everyone. The pre-match favourite was the Lions with a 42 % chance, yet the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result, extending both sides’ recent draws. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 97.3 %, Under 6.5 at 93.5 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 91.5 %. The Lions’ home form was a mix of draws and a win, while the Magpies’ away form included a win and two draws. The game’s outcome defied the prediction, confirming the unpredictability of the Premier Division.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lions Gibraltar win✗ Miss
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Magpies win✗ Miss
33.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.90
2.00
1.79
1.62
2.00
vs Stronger (14)
1.50
2.71
1.57
2.00
1.43
3.43
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.38
1.00
2.00
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.88
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.67
1.12
1.41
1.31
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.12
0.75
2.25
0.25
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.57
1.33
1.33
1.40
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.38
1.00
0.75
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.0%
No
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.6%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
5.3%
2-0
5.2%
1-0
4.7%
3-2
4.3%
Lions Gibraltar goals ↓
Magpies goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
2.2%
0.9%
1
4.7%
10%
7.6%
4.2%
1.7%
2
5.2%
8.6%
7.0%
3.9%
1.6%
3
3.2%
5.3%
4.3%
2.4%
1.0%
4
1.5%
2.5%
2.0%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lions Gibraltar goals (down), columns = Magpies goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lions Gibraltar is 0.32 points better than Magpies in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Europa
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lions Gibraltar is 0.83 goals better than Magpies in terms of goals scored per game (1.96 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Lions Gibraltar is 0.18 goals worse than Magpies in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lions Gibraltar or Draw✓ Hit
66.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
24%
34%
covers Lions Gibraltar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar or Magpies✗ Miss
76.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
24%
34%
covers Lions Gibraltar + Magpies
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Magpies✓ Hit
57.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
24%
34%
covers Draw + Magpies
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.4%
Under
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.4%
Under
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lions Gibraltar, so a minus line means Lions Gibraltar give that many goals of a start and Magpies receive them. At -1, Lions Gibraltar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lions Gibraltar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Magpies) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.71
0.65
0.69
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.62
0.50
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.64
0.89
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.8%
Under 0.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.4%
Under 1.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.0%
Under
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lions Gibraltar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.79
0.93
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.14
0.71
0.86
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.41
0.76
0.77
1.15
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.25
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.93
0.44
0.67
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.38
0.50
0.75
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.5%
Under 0.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.4%
Under 1.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Magpies have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Magpies have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Magpies have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Lions Gibraltar and Magpies have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe