Livingston are tipped to lift the trophy, with a 60% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of a Stenhousemuir win. The model favours a home win and expects 2.9 goals in total, with the most likely total of two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. Livingston, playing at home against a weaker side, average 3.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Stenhousemuir, away against a stronger opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 80% probability, though the match ended with a miss. The final score was 1-0 in favour of Livingston, confirming the predicted home win.
Results analysis
Livingston’s win extends their recent run, ending a defeat to Arbroath with a 1-0 victory over Stenhousemuir. The pre-match favourite was a Home win, with the model assigning a 60% probability; the call proved correct. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carried an 80% probability but missed, as the match produced only one goal. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the Home win outcome. The model’s predicted most likely total of 2 goals (24% probability) was not achieved, and the most likely scorelines of 1-1, 2-0, and 2-1 all fell short of the actual result. The day was a mixed one for the model’s picks.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Livingston win✓ Hit
60.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir win✗ Miss
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Livingston
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.97
1.93
0.87
2.13
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.91
1.13
1.73
1.00
2.08
1.25
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
0.50
3.00
0.67
2.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.93
1.33
2.20
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (27)
1.48
1.85
1.46
2.15
1.50
1.57
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
2.67
0.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
1-0 ✓
9.6%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.5%
0-0
6.4%
1-2
4.8%
Livingston goals ↓
Stenhousemuir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
4.1%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.6%
11%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
6.8%
6.5%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.4%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Livingston goals (down), columns = Stenhousemuir goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Livingston
2.25
Alloa
1.72
Airdrie United
1.44
Brechin
1.39
East Fife
1.28
Queens Park
1.28
Stranraer
1.22
Albion Rvs
1.17
Peterhead
1.11
Stenhousemuir
1.08
Livingston is 1.17 points better than Stenhousemuir in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
2.22
Alloa
1.92
Airdrie United
1.69
Stranraer
1.28
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Peterhead
1.22
Brechin
1.19
Albion Rvs
1.14
East Fife
1.14
Queens Park
1.03
Livingston is 0.97 goals better than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals scored per game (2.22 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.89
Alloa
1.22
East Fife
1.22
Albion Rvs
1.33
Brechin
1.36
Stranraer
1.39
Queens Park
1.42
Peterhead
1.64
Stenhousemuir
1.78
Airdrie United
1.83
Livingston is 0.89 goals better than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Livingston
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Stenhousemuir
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Livingston
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (43)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Livingston) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Livingston
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.80
0.13
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.39
0.64
0.18
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
1.33
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.40
0.87
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (27)
0.48
0.78
0.46
0.77
0.50
0.79
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Livingston over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Livingston
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.63
1.13
0.73
1.40
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.17
0.74
1.09
0.82
1.25
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.33
1.67
0.67
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stenhousemuir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
0.93
1.33
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (27)
1.00
1.07
1.00
1.38
1.00
0.79
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Livingston over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Livingston · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jeremy Bokila22%
Connor McLennan19%
Lewis Smith17%
Robbie Muirhead15%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Brooklyn Kabongolo12%
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Stevie May6%
Mahamadou Susoho6%
Cristian Montaño4%
Mohammad Sylla3%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jérôme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor McLennan38%
Mahamadou Susoho33%
Cristian Montaño27%
Adam Montgomery25%
Macaulay Tait24%
Emmanuel Danso23%
Danny Finlayson23%
Jeremy Bokila22%
Robbie Muirhead21%
Brooklyn Kabongolo19%
Stevie May18%
Ryan McGowan17%
Babacar Fati17%
Mohammad Sylla16%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Joshua Zimmerman14%
Samson Lawal13%
Scott Arfield12%
Jérôme Prior11%
Cammy Kerr9%
Lewis Smith6%
Tete Yengi5%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jon Nouble0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Barrie McKay29%
Jon Nouble20%
Graham Carey14%
Adam Montgomery12%
Cristian Montaño12%
Macaulay Tait9%
Emmanuel Danso8%
Joshua Brenet7%
Robbie Muirhead6%
Stevie May6%
Scott Pittman6%
Lewis Smith6%
Ryan McGowan4%
Danny Finlayson3%
Jérôme Prior3%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Connor McLennan0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Babacar Fati0%
Tete Yengi0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Samson Lawal0%
Brooklyn Kabongolo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Robbie Muirhead9%
Stevie May9%
Connor McLennan6%
Brooklyn Kabongolo6%
Lewis Smith6%
Cristian Montaño4%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Graham Carey0%
Scott Pittman0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jérôme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
STE (2)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Livingston's squad is €4m more valuable than Stenhousemuir's (€4m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (7)
€1m
STE (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Livingston's attack is €1m more valuable than Stenhousemuir's (€1m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
EF (1)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Livingston's midfield is €1m more valuable than Stenhousemuir's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (10)
€1m
STE (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Livingston's defence is €1m more valuable than Stenhousemuir's (€1m vs €0m).
Scotland: League One 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Airdrie United
Brechin
East Fife
Queens Park
Stranraer
Peterhead