In the upcoming Ukraine Premier League match between LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets, the model strongly favors LNZ Cherkasy to win at home, with a 66% chance of success. This is largely due to Chornomorets' struggles on the road, particularly when facing stronger opponents, conceding an average of 1.43 goals.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with the most likely result being a 2-0 win for LNZ Cherkasy, occurring with a 13.6% probability. The expected total goals stands at 2.6, indicating a relatively low-scoring encounter. LNZ Cherkasy has been solid at home, scoring 1.43 goals and conceding just 0.29 on average, while Chornomorets has been less impressive on the road, scoring 1.57 goals but conceding 1.43.
The model's selection includes Over 1.5 goals, which is predicted to occur with a 74.4% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 73.4% chance of happening. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 66%, 23%, and 11%, respectively.
The win extends LNZ Cherkasy's run to three consecutive victories, following a 2-0 triumph over Chornomorets. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the actual result, a home win, as predicted by the Pythia model. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 68%. The model's call was also in line with the pre-match favourite. In addition to the home win, two of the model's selections landed: Over 1.5, which hit with a probability of 75.1%, and Under 3.5, which also hit with a probability of 72.6%.
LNZ Cherkasy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.14 | 0.64 | 1.25 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.93 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.50 | 0.40 | 1.40 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Chornomorets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 0.73 | 1.40 | 0.33 | 1.40 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.45 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.30 | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.33 | 0.44 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
| Chornomorets goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13% | 10% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 9.2% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
LNZ Cherkasy
Chornomorets
LNZ Cherkasy| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 22.8 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 10.0 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 16.7 | 15.0 | 17.5 |
| vs Similar (25) | 9.9 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 21.4 | 20.5 | 22.7 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 7.4 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 24.8 | 25.0 | 24.7 |
| % over line | 44% | 46% | 43% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 56% | 54% | 57% |
| % under line | 56% | 54% | 57% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 44% | 46% | 43% |
Chornomorets| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 21.7 | 22.4 | 20.8 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 21.2 | 20.3 | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (33) | 9.4 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 22.0 | 25.5 | 19.7 |
| vs Weaker (10) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 44% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 56% | 60% | 50% |
| % under line | 56% | 40% | 75% | 94% | 92% | 96% | 44% | 40% | 50% |
LNZ Cherkasy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.30 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Chornomorets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.56 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
LNZ Cherkasy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.37 | 0.57 | 0.21 | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.90 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Chornomorets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.37 | 1.13 | 0.13 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.95 | 0.40 | 1.30 | 0.10 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.78 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 78.3% | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | - | - | - | +4.0% | - |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 77.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 75.1% | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.34 | +6.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.6% | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | -2.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/09/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/12/23 | A | 1-3 | |
| 30/07/23 | H | 0-2 |
LNZ Cherkasy| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 03/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 30/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
Chornomorets| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/06/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Karpaty | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 49% |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 2.8 | 75% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 186 | 115 | 19 | 52 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 68% |
| 3 | Polessya | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 4 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 48% |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 6 | Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 91 | 32 | 26 | 33 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 62% |
| 7 | Zorya Luhansk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 52% |
| 8 | Bukovyna | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 43% |
| 10 | Kryvbas KR | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48% |
| 11 | LNZ Cherkasy | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 3 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 1.3 | 67% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 13 | Chornomorets | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | Obolon'-Brovar | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0.8 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 42% |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 16 | Kolos Kovalivka | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 49% |