This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.93
1.20
0.93
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.95
1.22
1.11
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.91
1.17
0.67
1.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Logrones) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.2%
Under 1.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.2%
@ 2.17-5.1%
Under 2.5
61.8%
@ 1.66+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.4%
No
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.0%
1-1
13.7%
0-0 ✓
12.1%
0-2
10.6%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
5.1%
0-3
4.9%
Logrones goals ↓
Rayo Vallecano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
14%
11%
4.9%
1.7%
1
7.7%
14%
8.7%
4.1%
1.4%
2
3.7%
5.1%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
3
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Logrones goals (down), columns = Rayo Vallecano goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Espanyol
1.95
Mallorca
1.95
Leganes
1.74
Almeria
1.74
Girona
1.69
Rayo Vallecano
1.60
Sporting Gijon
1.55
Ponferradina
1.36
Las Palmas
1.33
Fuenlabrada
1.29
Mirandes
1.29
Malaga
1.26
Tenerife
1.24
Oviedo
1.24
Alcorcon
1.17
FC Cartagena
1.17
Zaragoza
1.14
Lugo
1.12
Sabadell
1.10
Logrones
1.05
Castellón
0.98
Albacete
0.90
Logrones is 0.55 points worse than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Espanyol
1.69
Almeria
1.45
Mallorca
1.29
Rayo Vallecano
1.24
Leganes
1.21
Girona
1.12
Las Palmas
1.10
Fuenlabrada
1.07
Ponferradina
1.07
Oviedo
1.07
FC Cartagena
1.05
Sabadell
0.95
Lugo
0.90
Mirandes
0.90
Sporting Gijon
0.88
Malaga
0.88
Tenerife
0.86
Castellón
0.83
Zaragoza
0.81
Alcorcon
0.76
Albacete
0.71
Logrones
0.67
Logrones is 0.57 goals worse than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting Gijon
0.67
Espanyol
0.67
Mallorca
0.67
Leganes
0.76
Tenerife
0.86
Girona
0.86
Alcorcon
0.93
Rayo Vallecano
0.95
Almeria
0.95
Mirandes
0.98
Zaragoza
1.02
Fuenlabrada
1.10
Oviedo
1.10
Malaga
1.12
Sabadell
1.14
Ponferradina
1.19
FC Cartagena
1.24
Logrones
1.26
Las Palmas
1.26
Lugo
1.26
Albacete
1.26
Castellón
1.29
Logrones is 0.31 goals worse than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
L
Logrones
For 4.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 13.2 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rayo Vallecano
For 4.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 7.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 16.7 · Total 31.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
L
Logrones
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (34)
8.5
8.4
8.6
4.3
3.6
4.9
30.9
30.8
30.9
vs Stronger (22)
9.5
10.0
9.1
4.0
3.4
4.5
31.0
30.6
31.5
vs Similar (12)
6.7
5.0
7.9
4.8
4.0
5.4
30.5
31.2
30.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
35%
44%
28%
65%
56%
72%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
65%
56%
72%
35%
44%
28%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
8.4
8.2
5.8
6.2
5.5
32.9
32.4
33.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
8.4
8.6
8.2
5.9
6.1
5.8
31.2
30.6
31.7
vs Weaker (20)
8.2
8.2
8.1
5.7
6.4
4.9
35.5
34.6
36.7
% over line
30%
36%
24%
84%
88%
80%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
70%
64%
76%
16%
12%
20%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Logrones) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mallorca
9.2
Zaragoza
9.1
Almeria
9.1
Castellón
9.0
Lugo
9.0
Espanyol
8.9
Mirandes
8.7
Sabadell
8.7
Logrones
8.5
Alcorcon
8.5
FC Cartagena
8.4
Tenerife
8.4
Girona
8.4
Fuenlabrada
8.4
Rayo Vallecano
8.3
Sporting Gijon
8.3
Albacete
8.2
Oviedo
8.1
Ponferradina
8.1
Malaga
8.0
Las Palmas
7.9
Leganes
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fuenlabrada
6.2
FC Cartagena
6.1
Rayo Vallecano
5.8
Las Palmas
5.8
Albacete
5.7
Almeria
5.7
Oviedo
5.6
Girona
5.5
Leganes
5.5
Mallorca
5.3
Tenerife
5.3
Lugo
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Ponferradina
5.2
Alcorcon
5.0
Espanyol
5.0
Zaragoza
4.9
Mirandes
4.9
Castellón
4.9
Sabadell
4.8
Logrones
4.3
Sporting Gijon
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fuenlabrada
33.6
FC Cartagena
33.1
Rayo Vallecano
32.9
Girona
31.9
Las Palmas
31.8
Malaga
30.9
Logrones
30.9
Leganes
30.8
Albacete
30.5
Tenerife
30.4
Almeria
29.9
Oviedo
29.8
Alcorcon
29.6
Ponferradina
29.4
Sabadell
29.1
Mallorca
29.1
Mirandes
28.4
Zaragoza
28.3
Lugo
28.0
Espanyol
27.9
Castellón
27.7
Sporting Gijon
26.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
31.0%
Under 9.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.6%
Under 3.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.1%
Under 21.5
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
L
Logrones
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.63
0.36
0.64
0.19
0.62
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
0.94
0.22
0.89
0.22
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.17
0.60
0.20
0.14
0.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.68
0.56
0.78
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.36
0.50
0.17
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Logrones) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Logrones over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Logrones over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Logrones over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
L
Logrones
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (18)
0.33
0.61
0.22
0.44
0.44
0.78
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.80
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.26
0.67
0.33
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.55
0.67
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Logrones) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Logrones over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Logrones over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Logrones over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rayo Vallecano · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergio Camello67%
Álvaro García33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Camello33%
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Fran Pérez33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Jorge de Frutos33%
Sergio Camello0%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Fran Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergio Camello33%
Florian Lejeune33%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Álvaro García0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →