Lokomotiv is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 62% chance of taking all three points. The model rates them highly due to Akron's struggles on their own pitch, where they have a tendency to concede more goals. Lokomotiv has been scoring at a rate of 2 goals per game when playing at home against weaker opponents, while conceding just 1.22 goals on average.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.0, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.8%.
Akron, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring just 1.25 goals per game against stronger opponents while conceding 2.25 goals on average. The model predicts a Lokomotiv win, with a 62% chance of a home victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 15% chance of an Akron win.
The model's selection is a Home win, with suggested picks including Over 21.5 fouls (84.9%), Over 1.5 (80.5% with a 1% edge), and no other selections.
Results analysis
The Pythia prediction model's selection, home win, was wrong as Lokomotiv and Akron drew 0-0, defying the pre-match favourite's 62% probability. This result extends Lokomotiv's run of draws, as they came off a 0-0 draw against Akron, who were also coming off a draw against Lokomotiv. The model's selection was not the only one to miss out on a correct call, as Over 1.5 goals also failed to materialise, despite an 80.5% probability. On the other hand, the model's selection of Over 21.5 fouls hit, with a 84.9% probability, proving to be a correct call.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Lokomotiv winā Miss
61.9%
Avg Implied 66.5% · @ 1.43
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.40
Drawā Hit
22.6%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.83
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
4.97
Pinnacle
4.96
Dafabet
4.90
Superbet
4.70
Akron winā Miss
15.5%
Avg Implied 13.9% · @ 6.82
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.60
Pinnacle
6.95
Dafabet
6.40
Superbet
6.20
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Lokomotiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.33
1.47
0.80
1.60
1.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.47
1.25
0.75
1.86
2.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
1.23
2.00
1.00
1.57
1.43
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Akron) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akron
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.07
1.00
2.12
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.58
0.86
2.29
1.60
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.94
1.72
1.11
2.00
0.78
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.5%
@ 1.14+1.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
@ 4.31-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Under
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.15
Pinnacle
3.78
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.58-2.0%
Under 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.25+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
Under
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.4%
@ 2.46-3.3%
Under 3.5
65.6%
@ 1.49+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.73
Marathonbet
2.44
Superbet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.24
Under
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.6%
@ 1.79+1.9%
No
46.4%
@ 1.92-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
No
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.86
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 8.43+5.5%
2-0
10.7%@ 7.03+4.4%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.58+4.1%
1-0
9.5%@ 7.57+3.7%
3-0
7.2%@ 9.61+2.7%
3-1
6.7%@ 10.38+2.5%
0-0 ā
6.1%@ 17.12+3.6%
2-2
4.6%@ 16.68+2.0%
Lokomotiv goals ↓
Akron goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
3.8%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.5%
11%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.2%
6.7%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.7%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv goals (down), columns = Akron goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Lokomotiv and Akron are level in average points per game (both 0.50).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Lokomotiv is 0.17 goals worse than Akron in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.00).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Lokomotiv is 1.17 goals better than Akron in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 2.50).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Lokomotiv is 3.5 percentage points worse than Akron in terms of average possession (51% vs 54%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lokomotiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.87
0.47
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.69
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.86
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Akron) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akron
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.20
0.44
1.12
0.21
1.29
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.50
0.43
1.00
0.40
2.20
vs Similar (18)
0.28
1.00
0.44
1.22
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lokomotiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.33
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.80
0.62
0.25
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.54
0.67
0.50
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Akron) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akron
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.56
1.00
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.08
0.43
1.29
1.20
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.72
0.67
0.78
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akron over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.5%
1.14
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
-
+1.5%
ā Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
Lokomotiv
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksey Batrakov25%
Zelimkhan Bakaev17%
Aleksandr Silyanov17%
Sergey Pinyaev17%
Vadim Rakov17%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Gerzino Nyamsi0%
Maksim Nenakhov0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Ilya Lantratov0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Lucas Fasson0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Ilya Eremeev0%
Vladislav Golubev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksey Batrakov75%
Gerzino Nyamsi40%
Maksim Nenakhov33%
Ilya Lantratov33%
Vladislav Golubev25%
Ilya Eremeev20%
Zelimkhan Bakaev17%
Lucas Fasson17%
Vadim Rakov17%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Aleksandr Silyanov0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Sergey Pinyaev0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksey Batrakov25%
Zelimkhan Bakaev17%
Aleksandr Silyanov17%
Vadim Rakov17%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Gerzino Nyamsi0%
Maksim Nenakhov0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Ilya Lantratov0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Sergey Pinyaev0%
Lucas Fasson0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Ilya Eremeev0%
Vladislav Golubev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gerzino Nyamsi40%
Vadim Rakov33%
Aleksey Batrakov25%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Maksim Nenakhov0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Ilya Lantratov0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Zelimkhan Bakaev0%
Aleksandr Silyanov0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Sergey Pinyaev0%
Lucas Fasson0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Ilya Eremeev0%
Vladislav Golubev0%
Akron
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gilson Tavares33%
Yomar Rocha20%
Kevin Arevalo20%
Stefan LonÄar17%
Arseniy Dmitriev17%
Kristijan BistroviÄ0%
Konstantin Maradishvili0%
Roberto FernƔndez0%
Joao Escoval0%
Khetag Khosonov0%
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin0%
Slobodan TediÄ0%
Vitali Gudiev0%
Marat Bokoev0%
Yuriy Zheleznov0%
Aleksa ÄurasoviÄ0%
Dudu0%
Nikita Bazilevskiy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kristijan BistroviÄ50%
Joao Escoval40%
Arseniy Dmitriev33%
Dudu25%
Nikita Bazilevskiy25%
Roberto FernƔndez20%
Stefan LonÄar17%
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin17%
Gilson Tavares17%
Konstantin Maradishvili0%
Khetag Khosonov0%
Slobodan TediÄ0%
Vitali Gudiev0%
Marat Bokoev0%
Yuriy Zheleznov0%
Aleksa ÄurasoviÄ0%
Yomar Rocha0%
Kevin Arevalo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dudu25%
Roberto FernƔndez20%
Konstantin Maradishvili17%
Stefan LonÄar17%
Gilson Tavares17%
Kristijan BistroviÄ0%
Joao Escoval0%
Khetag Khosonov0%
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin0%
Slobodan TediÄ0%
Vitali Gudiev0%
Marat Bokoev0%
Yuriy Zheleznov0%
Aleksa ÄurasoviÄ0%
Yomar Rocha0%
Arseniy Dmitriev0%
Nikita Bazilevskiy0%
Kevin Arevalo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Stefan LonÄar33%
Gilson Tavares33%
Kevin Arevalo20%
Kristijan BistroviÄ0%
Konstantin Maradishvili0%
Roberto FernƔndez0%
Joao Escoval0%
Khetag Khosonov0%
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin0%
Slobodan TediÄ0%
Vitali Gudiev0%
Marat Bokoev0%
Yuriy Zheleznov0%
Aleksa ÄurasoviÄ0%
Yomar Rocha0%
Dudu0%
Arseniy Dmitriev0%
Nikita Bazilevskiy0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Lokomotiv's squad is €43m more valuable than Akron's (€68m vs €25m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Lokomotiv's attack is €10m more valuable than Akron's (€21m vs €11m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Lokomotiv's midfield is €2m more valuable than Akron's (€8m vs €6m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Lokomotiv's defence is €31m more valuable than Akron's (€40m vs €8m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Fakel