PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Aragvi Dusheti Result & Analysis

Date: 31/07/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 2-1
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Vs
44%
29%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Lokomotivi Tbilisi win✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D13L41W10W03L24L21W24L00D33DA·KOL17/04A·ARA22/04H·GAR27/04H·SPA01/05A·WIT11/05H·DIN15/05A·SHT19/05H·SIO24/05A·RUS28/05H·KOL01/06
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.532.001.531.001.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.501.532.001.531.001.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L31W01L35L00D12L01L62W12L32WA·DIN17/04H·LOK22/04A·SHT27/04H·GAR01/05A·SIO11/05H·SPA15/05A·RUS19/05H·WIT24/05A·KOL28/05H·DIN02/06
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.442.442.110.560.78
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.501.442.442.110.560.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %28% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
9.9%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
5.0%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi goals ↓
Aragvi Dusheti goals →
01234
08.9%7.2%4.7%1.7%0.5%
19.9%14%6.9%2.5%0.7%
28.2%9.1%5.0%1.9%0.5%
34.0%4.4%2.5%0.9%0.3%
41.5%1.6%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotivi Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Aragvi Dusheti goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Saburtalo II
2.00
Gareji
1.86
Rustavi
1.81
Sioni
1.69
Merani Martvili
1.50
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.42
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.42
Spaeri
1.42
Aragvi Dusheti
1.32
Shturmi
1.26
WIT Georgia
1.14
Kolkheti Khobi
0.56
Lokomotivi Tbilisi is 0.10 points better than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.32).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Gareji
2.14
Sioni
1.83
Rustavi
1.72
Saburtalo II
1.50
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.42
Aragvi Dusheti
1.39
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.39
Spaeri
1.39
WIT Georgia
1.36
Shturmi
1.13
Kolkheti Khobi
0.83
Merani Martvili
0.50
Lokomotivi Tbilisi is 0.01 goals worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.39).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Merani Martvili
0.50
Saburtalo II
1.00
Rustavi
1.14
Sioni
1.17
Gareji
1.22
Spaeri
1.31
Shturmi
1.32
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.36
Aragvi Dusheti
1.39
WIT Georgia
1.64
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.72
Kolkheti Khobi
2.36
Lokomotivi Tbilisi is 0.03 goals better than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.39).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W11D10W01L12L01L01L00D10WA·KOL17/04A·ARA22/04H·GAR27/04H·SPA01/05A·WIT11/05H·DIN15/05A·SHT19/05H·SIO24/05A·RUS28/05H·KOL01/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.730.730.470.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.600.700.730.730.470.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L00D12L00D10W00D30W10W10WA·DIN17/04H·LOK22/04A·SHT27/04H·GAR01/05A·SIO11/05H·SPA15/05A·RUS19/05H·WIT24/05A·KOL28/05H·DIN02/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.890.780.440.22
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.670.500.890.780.440.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L03L30W00D02L12L20W23L00D23LA·KOL17/04A·ARA22/04H·GAR27/04H·SPA01/05A·WIT11/05H·DIN15/05A·SHT19/05H·SIO24/05A·RUS28/05H·KOL01/06
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.831.270.800.530.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.900.831.270.800.530.87
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W01L23L00D02L01L32W02L22DA·DIN17/04H·LOK22/04A·SHT27/04H·GAR01/05A·SIO11/05H·SPA15/05A·RUS19/05H·WIT24/05A·KOL28/05H·DIN02/06
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.941.561.330.110.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.830.941.561.330.110.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %44% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (22)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (10)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
LT wins
0
Draws
1
AD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Aragvi Dusheti · H/A from LT
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/24AAragvi Dusheti Vs LT3-1

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/24HLT Vs Kolkheti Khobi3-3
28/05/24ARustavi Vs LT0-0
24/05/24HLT Vs Sioni2-4
19/05/24AShturmi Vs LT1-2
15/05/24HLT Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II2-4
11/05/24AWIT Georgia Vs LT3-0
01/05/24HLT Vs Spaeri1-0
27/04/24HLT Vs Gareji4-1
22/04/24AAragvi Dusheti Vs LT3-1
17/04/24AKolkheti Khobi Vs LT2-2

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/06/24HAD Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II3-2
28/05/24AKolkheti Khobi Vs AD2-1
24/05/24HAD Vs WIT Georgia6-2
19/05/24ARustavi Vs AD1-0
15/05/24HAD Vs Spaeri1-2
11/05/24ASioni Vs AD0-0
01/05/24HAD Vs Gareji3-5
27/04/24AShturmi Vs AD1-0
22/04/24HAD Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi3-1
17/04/24ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs AD3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.12
HomeWWLLD1.52
AwayDLLWD0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%44%16%
AVG goals3.143.362.92
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %60%60%60%
Over 3.5 %40%44%36%
Scored1.481.961.00
Conceded1.661.401.92
BTTS62%60%64%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.22
HomeWLLWW1.44
AwayLLDLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%44%22%
AVG goals2.944.561.33
Over 1.5 %61%89%33%
Over 2.5 %56%89%22%
Over 3.5 %33%56%11%
Scored1.502.440.56
Conceded1.442.110.78
BTTS56%89%22%
Clean Sheet28%0%56%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GarejiGareji3667
53%
1.9
7744+33
3.4
86%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
2RustaviRustavi3665
56%
1.8
6241+21
2.9
72%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.1
-
3SioniSioni3661
53%
1.7
6642+24
3.0
72%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
4SpaeriSpaeri3651
39%
1.4
5047+3
2.7
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
5Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi3651
36%
1.4
5049+1
2.8
78%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
6Dinamo Tbilisi IIDinamo Tbilisi II3651
42%
1.4
5162-11
3.1
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
7Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti3850
37%
1.3
5353+0
2.8
76%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
8ShturmiShturmi3848
34%
1.3
4350-7
2.4
66%
42%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
9WIT GeorgiaWIT Georgia3641
31%
1.1
4959-10
3.0
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10Kolkheti KhobiKolkheti Khobi3620
11%
0.6
3085-55
3.2
72%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.4
-
11Saburtalo IISaburtalo II24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
12Merani MartviliMerani Martvili23
50%
1.5
11+0
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

← all matches