PythiaFootballBETA
Lommel United is expected to edge out Club Brugge II, with a high-scoring match likely to unfold. The home side's recent form has been impressive, with five consecutive unbeaten matches, including a draw against St. Truiden. They've scored 1.6 goals per game at home, conceding 1.2.
The away side, Club Brugge II, has struggled on the road, scoring 1.5 goals per game and conceding 2.5 against similar opponents. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with a win followed by three draws and a loss.
The model predicts a home win with 50% probability, while a draw and away win are less likely at 25% each. The expected total goals is 3.1, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 11.5%. The model's selection for the match result is a home win.
The model's selection for over 1.5 goals has a 82.5% chance of occurring, while over 21.5 fouls has an 80.8% chance. Lommel United has a 50% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 25% chance of losing.
In a stunning upset, Club Brugge II defeated Lommel United 0-1, extending their unbeaten run on the road. The win comes as a surprise, given Lommel United's impressive home form, where they had gone unbeaten in their last 5 matches. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 50%. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was an Away win. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals missed, with an 82.5% probability.
Lommel United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.37 | 1.93 | 1.27 | 1.73 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.42 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 2.11 | 1.39 | 2.22 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.44 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Club Brugge II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.80 | 0.87 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.67 | 2.33 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (27) | 1.07 | 1.74 | 1.00 | 1.77 | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| Club Brugge II goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 12% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Lommel UnitedClub Brugge IILommel United| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 24.9 | 25.1 | 24.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 24.8 | 25.5 | 24.0 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 10.3 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 25.0 | 24.7 | 25.3 |
| % over line | 41% | 43% | 40% | 48% | 56% | 40% | 76% | 86% | 65% |
| % under line | 59% | 57% | 60% | 52% | 44% | 60% | 24% | 14% | 35% |
Club Brugge II| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 27.0 | 27.5 | 26.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 10.8 | 15.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 24.8 | 22.5 | 27.0 |
| vs Weaker (45) | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 27.3 | 28.0 | 26.5 |
| % over line | 45% | 43% | 48% | 54% | 62% | 46% | 84% | 86% | 81% |
| % under line | 55% | 57% | 52% | 46% | 38% | 54% | 16% | 14% | 19% |
Lommel United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.11 | 0.67 | 1.22 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Club Brugge II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (27) | 0.26 | 0.67 | 0.31 | 0.77 | 0.21 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Lommel United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.00 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Club Brugge II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 1.07 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (27) | 0.81 | 1.07 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 90.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 80.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 07/02/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 01/11/24 | A | 1-3 | |
| 13/01/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 18/08/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/01/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 15/10/22 | H | 3-4 |
Lommel United| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/02/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/01/26 | A | 1-0 |
Club Brugge II| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 13/02/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 30/01/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  SK Beveren | 32 | 88 | 88% | 2.8 | 74 | 23 | +51 | 3.0 | 84% | 62% | 31% | 10.0 | 55% | 3.8 | 55% | 22.4 | 45% | 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 |  Kortrijk | 31 | 64 | 65% | 2.1 | 56 | 33 | +23 | 2.9 | 74% | 48% | 39% | 11.1 | 67% | 4.0 | 57% | 26.7 | 81% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 3 |  Beerschot VA | 32 | 64 | 59% | 2.0 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 2.6 | 75% | 50% | 19% | 9.6 | 52% | 5.1 | 88% | 27.2 | 76% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 4 | Lommel United | 32 | 53 | 47% | 1.7 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 3.3 | 84% | 59% | 41% | 9.9 | 43% | 3.9 | 57% | 24.7 | 70% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 55% |
| 5 |  Liège | 32 | 53 | 50% | 1.7 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 2.6 | 81% | 44% | 22% | 9.5 | 39% | 4.0 | 65% | 24.7 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 6 |  Patro Eisden | 32 | 51 | 44% | 1.6 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 2.6 | 75% | 47% | 25% | 8.3 | 27% | 6.0 | 85% | 29.4 | 85% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 38% |
| 7 |  AS Eupen | 32 | 47 | 38% | 1.5 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 2.5 | 66% | 47% | 25% | 10.0 | 52% | 4.0 | 50% | 25.7 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 51% |
| 8 |  Lokeren-Temse | 32 | 42 | 31% | 1.3 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 2.9 | 78% | 53% | 38% | 11.4 | 62% | 5.4 | 75% | 29.2 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 9 |  KAA Gent II | 32 | 41 | 38% | 1.3 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 2.9 | 84% | 56% | 38% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 61% | 26.3 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 10 |  K. Lierse S.K. | 32 | 38 | 31% | 1.2 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 2.4 | 62% | 41% | 19% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.2 | 79% | 27.6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 |  RWDM | 32 | 36 | 28% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.2 | 84% | 59% | 47% | 8.2 | 24% | 4.3 | 62% | 25.6 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 12 |  Seraing United | 31 | 35 | 26% | 1.1 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 35% | 8.1 | 36% | 5.0 | 73% | 26.1 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 41% |
| 13 |  Francs Borains | 32 | 35 | 28% | 1.1 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 2.5 | 72% | 41% | 34% | 10.3 | 58% | 4.7 | 65% | 25.8 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 14 |  RSC Anderlecht II | 32 | 31 | 22% | 1.0 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.2 | 78% | 62% | 44% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 50% | 29.0 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 52% |
| 15 |  KRC Genk II | 32 | 31 | 22% | 1.0 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 3.2 | 84% | 62% | 41% | 9.9 | 76% | 3.6 | 62% | 25.4 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 52% |
| 16 | Club Brugge II | 32 | 21 | 16% | 0.7 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 2.8 | 75% | 56% | 31% | 8.8 | 33% | 4.1 | 60% | 28.2 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 56% |
| 17 |  Olympic Charleroi | 32 | 16 | 9% | 0.5 | 26 | 68 | -42 | 2.9 | 78% | 59% | 31% | 9.7 | 59% | 4.0 | 55% | 24.4 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 48% |