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Lovćen vs Berane Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 0-0
Lovćen
Lovćen
Vs
22%
30%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Berane
Berane
Montenegro: Second League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Berane's recent form has been impacted by two consecutive defeats, but their away scoring has shown resilience against similar opponents, averaging 1.64 goals per match, while conceding just 0.55 goals on the road. Lovćen, on the other hand, has been on a 2-game winning run, but their home scoring has struggled, averaging 0.69 goals per match, with 1.46 goals conceded at home. The most likely match result is an away win, with a 49% probability. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 13.8% probability. Lovćen's home scoring and conceding trends suggest a challenging match for the home side. The model's selection is an away win, and they also suggest an Under 3.5 goals match, which has an 80.8% probability of occurring. The home win percentage is 22%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 48%. The model's selection of an Under 3.5 goals match has an 80.8% probability, while an Away win has a 48% probability.

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Lovćen and Berane played out a goalless draw, defying the pre-match favourite's expected dominance. The model's selection, Berane's away win, was unfortunately incorrect, with the team failing to capitalize on its 49% pre-match probability. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with the actual score exactly matching this prediction at 80.8%. Lovćen's home form, which had seen the team on a 2-game winning run, failed to yield a victory, while Berane's away form, which had seen two straight defeats, was also unable to secure a win. The final score of 0-0 was a fitting outcome, reflecting the model's most likely score of 2 goals, albeit with a relatively low probability of 28%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lovćen win✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Berane win✗ Miss
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D00D00D12L01L02L12L10W21WH·RUD18/03A·BER22/03A·KOM28/03H·IGA04/04H·MLA08/04A·ISK12/04H·GRB18/04A·OTR26/04H·INT03/05A·RUD10/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.300.801.331.001.27
vs Stronger (17)1.241.001.111.111.380.88
vs Similar (13)0.461.690.331.670.571.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BeraneBerane

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D20W21W20W21W02L22D01L43WA·KOM18/03H·LOV22/03A·IGA28/03H·MLA04/04H·ISK08/04A·GRB12/04H·OTR18/04A·INT26/04H·RUD03/05H·KOM10/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.071.251.441.430.64
vs Stronger (19)1.371.051.301.201.440.89
vs Similar (11)1.271.091.171.831.400.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.3%
Under 2.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.6%
No
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
13.4%
0-0 ✓
11.7%
0-2
10.3%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
5.3%
0-3
4.8%
Lovćen goals ↓
Berane goals →
01234
012%13%10%4.8%1.7%
17.7%14%8.8%4.1%1.4%
23.8%5.3%3.8%1.8%0.6%
31.1%1.5%1.1%0.5%0.2%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lovćen goals (down), columns = Berane goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.06
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Berane
1.39
Kom
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Zeta
1.00
Igalo
0.89
Internacional Podgorica
0.64
Brskovo
0.00
Lovćen is 0.06 points worse than Berane in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.25
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Internacional Podgorica
0.86
Igalo
0.58
Brskovo
0.50
Zeta
0.50
Lovćen is 0.31 goals worse than Berane in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Otrant-Olympic
0.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Igalo
1.55
Internacional Podgorica
2.11
Brskovo
3.50
Lovćen is 0.25 goals worse than Berane in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (24)
€2m
OTR (27)
€1m
R( (36)
€0m
GRB (36)
€0m
LOV (45)
€0m
BER (36)
€0m
KOM (37)
€0m
Lovćen and Berane have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (0)
€0m
OTR (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (0)
€0m
OTR (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (0)
€0m
OTR (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Lovćen vs Berane · H/A from LOV
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/26ABerane Vs LOV1-1
16/11/25HLOV Vs Berane0-4
20/09/25ABerane Vs LOV1-1
20/04/24HLOV Vs Berane0-0
06/03/24ABerane Vs LOV1-2
14/10/23HLOV Vs Berane1-0
26/08/23ABerane Vs LOV1-2

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26ARudar (Montenegro) Vs LOV1-2
03/05/26HLOV Vs Internacional Podgorica1-0
26/04/26AOtrant-Olympic Vs LOV2-1
18/04/26HLOV Vs Grbalj0-2
12/04/26AIskra (Montenegro) Vs LOV1-0
08/04/26HLOV Vs Mladost Lješkopolje1-2
04/04/26HLOV Vs Igalo0-0
28/03/26AKom Vs LOV0-0
22/03/26ABerane Vs LOV1-1
18/03/26HLOV Vs Rudar (Montenegro)1-0

BeraneBerane

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HBER Vs Kom4-3
03/05/26HBER Vs Rudar (Montenegro)0-1
26/04/26AInternacional Podgorica Vs BER2-2
18/04/26HBER Vs Otrant-Olympic0-2
12/04/26AGrbalj Vs BER1-2
08/04/26HBER Vs Iskra (Montenegro)2-0
04/04/26HBER Vs Mladost Lješkopolje2-1
28/03/26AIgalo Vs BER0-2
22/03/26HBER Vs Lovćen1-1
18/03/26AKom Vs BER1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Lovćen
Lovćen
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.36
HomeWDLLW1.29
AwayDDLLW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.382.542.23
Over 1.5 %64%71%58%
Over 2.5 %42%42%42%
Over 3.5 %20%21%19%
Scored1.081.121.04
Conceded1.301.421.19
BTTS38%38%38%
Clean Sheet34%33%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Berane
Berane
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.24
HomeWWLLW1.00
AwayDDWWD1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%24%36%
AVG goals2.442.722.16
Over 1.5 %74%84%64%
Over 2.5 %42%44%40%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.181.161.20
Conceded1.261.560.96
BTTS44%56%32%
Clean Sheet38%24%52%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic3674
64%
2.1
8131+50
3.1
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.20.9
-
2GrbaljGrbalj3667
58%
1.9
6342+21
2.9
86%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3664
47%
1.8
5134+17
2.4
64%
42%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.40.9
-
4Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3851
37%
1.3
5449+5
2.7
71%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
5BeraneBerane3650
33%
1.4
4536+9
2.2
72%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
6KomKom3650
42%
1.4
4743+4
2.5
67%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LovćenLovćen3648
39%
1.3
3445-11
2.2
56%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
8Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje3647
36%
1.3
3946-7
2.4
53%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.3
-
9IgaloIgalo3834
21%
0.9
2259-37
2.1
63%
34%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
10Internacional PodgoricaInternacional Podgorica3623
14%
0.6
3176-45
3.0
86%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
11ZetaZeta22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
12BrskovoBrskovo20
0%
0.0
17-6
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.5
-
Montenegro: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

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