

Berane's recent form has been impacted by two consecutive defeats, but their away scoring has shown resilience against similar opponents, averaging 1.64 goals per match, while conceding just 0.55 goals on the road. Lovćen, on the other hand, has been on a 2-game winning run, but their home scoring has struggled, averaging 0.69 goals per match, with 1.46 goals conceded at home. The most likely match result is an away win, with a 49% probability. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 13.8% probability. Lovćen's home scoring and conceding trends suggest a challenging match for the home side. The model's selection is an away win, and they also suggest an Under 3.5 goals match, which has an 80.8% probability of occurring. The home win percentage is 22%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 48%. The model's selection of an Under 3.5 goals match has an 80.8% probability, while an Away win has a 48% probability.
In a stunning upset, Lovćen and Berane played out a goalless draw, defying the pre-match favourite's expected dominance. The model's selection, Berane's away win, was unfortunately incorrect, with the team failing to capitalize on its 49% pre-match probability. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with the actual score exactly matching this prediction at 80.8%. Lovćen's home form, which had seen the team on a 2-game winning run, failed to yield a victory, while Berane's away form, which had seen two straight defeats, was also unable to secure a win. The final score of 0-0 was a fitting outcome, reflecting the model's most likely score of 2 goals, albeit with a relatively low probability of 28%.
Lovćen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.30 | 0.80 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.24 | 1.00 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.46 | 1.69 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 0.57 | 1.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Berane| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.07 | 1.25 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 1.37 | 1.05 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.44 | 0.89 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.27 | 1.09 | 1.17 | 1.83 | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Berane goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 13% | 10% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 14% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 80.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/11/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/04/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 06/03/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/10/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/08/23 | A | 1-2 |
Lovćen| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 08/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
Berane| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 36 | 74 | 64% | 2.1 | 81 | 31 | +50 | 3.1 | 78% | 58% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | - |
| 2 | Grbalj | 36 | 67 | 58% | 1.9 | 63 | 42 | +21 | 2.9 | 86% | 53% | 31% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | Iskra (Montenegro) | 36 | 64 | 47% | 1.8 | 51 | 34 | +17 | 2.4 | 64% | 42% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | - |
| 4 | Rudar (Montenegro) | 38 | 51 | 37% | 1.3 | 54 | 49 | +5 | 2.7 | 71% | 53% | 32% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 | Berane | 36 | 50 | 33% | 1.4 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 2.2 | 72% | 36% | 28% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Kom | 36 | 50 | 42% | 1.4 | 47 | 43 | +4 | 2.5 | 67% | 42% | 28% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Lovćen | 36 | 48 | 39% | 1.3 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 2.2 | 56% | 36% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Mladost Lješkopolje | 36 | 47 | 36% | 1.3 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 2.4 | 53% | 42% | 31% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 9 | Igalo | 38 | 34 | 21% | 0.9 | 22 | 59 | -37 | 2.1 | 63% | 34% | 24% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 | Internacional Podgorica | 36 | 23 | 14% | 0.6 | 31 | 76 | -45 | 3.0 | 86% | 56% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.1 | - |
| 11 | Zeta | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 12 | Brskovo | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | - |