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Lovćen vs Grbalj Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-2
Lovćen
Lovćen
Vs
35%
28%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Grbalj
Grbalj
Montenegro: Second League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lovćen win✗ Miss
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grbalj win✓ Hit
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W01L42W22D10W11D00D00D12L01LH·ISK28/02A·GRB04/03H·OTR08/03A·INT14/03H·RUD18/03A·BER22/03A·KOM28/03H·IGA04/04H·MLA08/04A·ISK12/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.400.861.430.811.38
vs Stronger (18)1.171.171.111.331.221.00
vs Similar (12)0.331.750.401.600.291.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrbaljGrbalj

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W10W31W31W15L42W21W12L21W12LA·BER28/02H·LOV04/03A·IGA08/03H·MLA14/03A·ISK18/03H·KOM22/03H·OTR28/03A·INT04/04A·RUD08/04H·BER12/04
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.172.380.941.211.43
vs Stronger (16)1.881.252.620.881.121.62
vs Similar (7)1.570.711.500.501.671.00
vs Weaker (7)2.001.432.751.501.001.33
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.0%
Under 2.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
0-2 ✓
6.2%
2-0
6.0%
Lovćen goals ↓
Grbalj goals →
01234
07.8%7.9%6.2%2.9%1.0%
17.7%13%8.4%3.8%1.3%
26.0%8.2%5.6%2.6%0.9%
32.7%3.7%2.5%1.1%0.4%
40.9%1.2%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lovćen goals (down), columns = Grbalj goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.06
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Berane
1.39
Kom
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Zeta
1.00
Igalo
0.89
Internacional Podgorica
0.64
Brskovo
0.00
Lovćen is 0.53 points worse than Grbalj in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.25
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Internacional Podgorica
0.86
Igalo
0.58
Brskovo
0.50
Zeta
0.50
Lovćen is 0.81 goals worse than Grbalj in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Otrant-Olympic
0.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Igalo
1.55
Internacional Podgorica
2.11
Brskovo
3.50
Lovćen is 0.08 goals worse than Grbalj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LovćenLovćen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D11D12L00D00D00D00D01L00DH·ISK28/02A·GRB04/03H·OTR08/03A·INT14/03H·RUD18/03A·BER22/03A·KOM28/03H·IGA04/04H·MLA08/04A·ISK12/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.700.360.640.190.75
vs Stronger (18)0.390.720.440.670.330.78
vs Similar (12)0.080.670.200.600.000.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrbaljGrbalj

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D21W00D11D30W10W11D11D01LA·BER28/02H·LOV04/03A·IGA08/03H·MLA14/03A·ISK18/03H·KOM22/03H·OTR28/03A·INT04/04A·RUD08/04H·BER12/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.501.060.190.640.86
vs Stronger (16)0.810.561.000.250.620.88
vs Similar (7)0.860.290.750.001.000.67
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.500.250.331.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LovćenLovćen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L31W10W10W11D00D00D11D01LH·ISK28/02A·GRB04/03H·OTR08/03A·INT14/03H·RUD18/03A·BER22/03A·KOM28/03H·IGA04/04H·MLA08/04A·ISK12/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.500.790.620.62
vs Stronger (18)0.780.440.670.670.890.22
vs Similar (12)0.251.080.201.000.291.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrbaljGrbalj

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W10W10W31W04L12L11D01L10W11DA·BER28/02H·LOV04/03A·IGA08/03H·MLA14/03A·ISK18/03H·KOM22/03H·OTR28/03A·INT04/04A·RUD08/04H·BER12/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.310.750.570.57
vs Stronger (16)1.060.691.620.620.500.75
vs Similar (7)0.710.430.750.500.670.33
vs Weaker (7)1.000.861.251.250.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OTR (10)
€2m
GRB (2)
€0m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Lovćen and Grbalj have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OTR (4)
€1m
GRB (1)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Lovćen and Grbalj have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OTR (1)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OTR (5)
€1m
R( (2)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Lovćen and Grbalj have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
LOV wins
2
Draws
4
GRB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lovćen vs Grbalj · H/A from LOV
DateH/AGameScore
04/03/26AGrbalj Vs LOV1-0
18/10/25HLOV Vs Grbalj0-2
31/08/25AGrbalj Vs LOV2-0
23/04/25HLOV Vs Grbalj1-1
08/03/25AGrbalj Vs LOV2-2
20/10/24HLOV Vs Grbalj1-0
25/08/24AGrbalj Vs LOV0-4
12/05/24HLOV Vs Grbalj1-2

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/26AIskra (Montenegro) Vs LOV1-0
08/04/26HLOV Vs Mladost Lješkopolje1-2
04/04/26HLOV Vs Igalo0-0
28/03/26AKom Vs LOV0-0
22/03/26ABerane Vs LOV1-1
18/03/26HLOV Vs Rudar (Montenegro)1-0
14/03/26AInternacional Podgorica Vs LOV2-2
08/03/26HLOV Vs Otrant-Olympic4-2
04/03/26AGrbalj Vs LOV1-0
28/02/26HLOV Vs Iskra (Montenegro)2-0

GrbaljGrbalj

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/26HGRB Vs Berane1-2
08/04/26ARudar (Montenegro) Vs GRB1-2
04/04/26AInternacional Podgorica Vs GRB2-1
28/03/26HGRB Vs Otrant-Olympic2-1
22/03/26HGRB Vs Kom4-2
18/03/26AIskra (Montenegro) Vs GRB5-1
14/03/26HGRB Vs Mladost Lješkopolje3-1
08/03/26AIgalo Vs GRB1-3
04/03/26HGRB Vs Lovćen1-0
28/02/26ABerane Vs GRB1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lovćen
Lovćen
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLL1.34
HomeWWWDL1.28
AwayLDDDL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals2.462.762.16
Over 1.5 %66%76%56%
Over 2.5 %42%48%36%
Over 3.5 %24%28%20%
Scored1.121.241.00
Conceded1.341.521.16
BTTS40%44%36%
Clean Sheet34%32%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Grbalj
Grbalj
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.66
HomeWWWWL2.15
AwayWWLLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%65%29%
AVG goals2.803.122.46
Over 1.5 %86%88%83%
Over 2.5 %46%58%33%
Over 3.5 %24%31%17%
Scored1.521.961.04
Conceded1.281.151.42
BTTS62%65%58%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic3674
64%
2.1
8131+50
3.1
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.9
-
2GrbaljGrbalj3667
58%
1.9
6342+21
2.9
86%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3664
47%
1.8
5134+17
2.4
64%
42%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.40.9
-
4Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3851
37%
1.3
5449+5
2.7
71%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
5BeraneBerane3650
33%
1.4
4536+9
2.2
72%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
6KomKom3650
42%
1.4
4743+4
2.5
67%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LovćenLovćen3648
39%
1.3
3445-11
2.2
56%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
8Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje3647
36%
1.3
3946-7
2.4
53%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
9IgaloIgalo3834
21%
0.9
2259-37
2.1
63%
34%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
10Internacional PodgoricaInternacional Podgorica3623
14%
0.6
3176-45
3.0
86%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
11ZetaZeta22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
12BrskovoBrskovo20
0%
0.0
17-6
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.5
-
Montenegro: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

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