PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Lovćen vs Kom Result & Analysis

Date: 20/05/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 1-0
Lovćen
Lovćen
Vs
37%
27%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kom
Kom
Montenegro: Second League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

This match between Lovćen and Kom in the Montenegro Second League is finely balanced, with Lovćen coming off a defeat in their last outing, a 0-3 loss to Mladost Lješko Polje, while Kom has suffered five consecutive defeats. Lovćen has a 37% chance of winning, Kom a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of the match ending in a draw.

The model's pick is a home win, but this is not reflected in the teams' recent form. Lovćen's home scoring average is 0.29 goals, while they concede 1.43 goals per match at home. Kom, on the other hand, scores 2.4 goals and concedes 1.8 goals when playing away against similar opponents.

The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.8% probability. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 79.4% chance of occurring.

The suggested picks are: Home win (37%), Draw (27%), Away win (36%), Over 1.5 (79.4%), and Both teams to score is not present in the JSON but the actual result was a home win with a final score of 1-0.

Results analysis

The win extends Lovćen's run of inconsistency, as they follow up a defeat with a narrow 1-0 victory over Kom. The model's selection, Home win, proved correct, despite a relatively low pre-match probability of 37%. However, several other selections failed to materialize, starting with the model's second choice, Over 1.5, which missed its mark with a probability of 79.4%. Kom's recent form was particularly concerning, having lost their last 5 matches, including a 1-3 defeat to Mogren. Lovćen's recent struggles, marked by a loss to Mladost Lješko Polje, were somewhat alleviated by this hard-fought win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lovćen win✓ Hit
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kom win✗ Miss
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D12L01L02L12L10W21W00DA·BER22/03A·KOM28/03H·IGA04/04H·MLA08/04A·ISK12/04H·GRB18/04A·OTR26/04H·INT03/05A·RUD10/05H·BER16/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.200.801.131.001.27
vs Stronger (16)1.310.881.250.881.380.88
vs Similar (14)0.431.570.291.430.571.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KomKom

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L00D21W20W21W10W14L12L34L02LA·GRB22/03H·LOV28/03A·OTR04/04H·IGA08/04A·INT13/04H·MLA18/04A·RUD26/04H·ISK03/05A·BER10/05H·GRB16/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.271.270.801.731.73
vs Stronger (20)1.351.301.300.901.401.70
vs Similar (10)1.801.201.200.602.401.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0 ✓
7.0%
0-1
6.8%
0-0
6.8%
2-2
6.0%
2-0
6.0%
Lovćen goals ↓
Kom goals →
01234
06.8%6.8%5.7%2.7%1.0%
17.0%13%8.3%3.9%1.4%
26.0%8.5%6.0%2.9%1.0%
32.9%4.1%2.9%1.4%0.5%
41.1%1.5%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lovćen goals (down), columns = Kom goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.06
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Berane
1.39
Kom
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Zeta
1.00
Igalo
0.89
Internacional Podgorica
0.64
Brskovo
0.00
Lovćen is 0.06 points worse than Kom in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.25
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Internacional Podgorica
0.86
Igalo
0.58
Brskovo
0.50
Zeta
0.50
Lovćen is 0.36 goals worse than Kom in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Otrant-Olympic
0.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Igalo
1.55
Internacional Podgorica
2.11
Brskovo
3.50
Lovćen is 0.06 goals worse than Kom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (24)
€2m
OTR (27)
€1m
R( (36)
€0m
GRB (36)
€0m
LOV (45)
€0m
BER (36)
€0m
KOM (37)
€0m
Lovćen and Kom have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (0)
€0m
OTR (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (0)
€0m
OTR (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (0)
€0m
OTR (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Lovćen vs Kom · H/A from LOV
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/26AKom Vs LOV0-0
23/11/25HLOV Vs Kom0-2
24/09/25AKom Vs LOV1-0
10/05/25AKom Vs LOV0-0
24/03/25HLOV Vs Kom2-1
03/11/24AKom Vs LOV1-3
11/09/24HLOV Vs Kom3-0
07/04/24HLOV Vs Kom2-1

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26HLOV Vs Berane0-0
10/05/26ARudar (Montenegro) Vs LOV1-2
03/05/26HLOV Vs Internacional Podgorica1-0
26/04/26AOtrant-Olympic Vs LOV2-1
18/04/26HLOV Vs Grbalj0-2
12/04/26AIskra (Montenegro) Vs LOV1-0
08/04/26HLOV Vs Mladost Lješkopolje1-2
04/04/26HLOV Vs Igalo0-0
28/03/26AKom Vs LOV0-0
22/03/26ABerane Vs LOV1-1

KomKom

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26HKOM Vs Grbalj0-2
10/05/26ABerane Vs KOM4-3
03/05/26HKOM Vs Iskra (Montenegro)1-2
26/04/26ARudar (Montenegro) Vs KOM4-1
18/04/26HKOM Vs Mladost Lješkopolje1-0
13/04/26AInternacional Podgorica Vs KOM1-2
08/04/26HKOM Vs Igalo2-0
04/04/26AOtrant-Olympic Vs KOM1-2
28/03/26HKOM Vs Lovćen0-0
22/03/26AGrbalj Vs KOM4-2

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Lovćen
Lovćen
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.36
HomeDLLWD1.28
AwayDDLLW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%36%40%
AVG goals2.302.442.16
Over 1.5 %62%68%56%
Over 2.5 %40%40%40%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored1.041.081.00
Conceded1.261.361.16
BTTS36%36%36%
Clean Sheet36%36%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Kom
Kom
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.38
HomeDWWLL1.80
AwayLWWLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%52%28%
AVG goals2.782.243.32
Over 1.5 %72%60%84%
Over 2.5 %52%36%68%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.401.441.36
Conceded1.380.801.96
BTTS46%36%56%
Clean Sheet36%52%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 10. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic3674
64%
2.1
8131+50
3.1
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.20.9
-
2GrbaljGrbalj3667
58%
1.9
6342+21
2.9
86%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3664
47%
1.8
5134+17
2.4
64%
42%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.40.9
-
4Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3851
37%
1.3
5449+5
2.7
71%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
5BeraneBerane3650
33%
1.4
4536+9
2.2
72%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
6KomKom3650
42%
1.4
4743+4
2.5
67%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LovćenLovćen3648
39%
1.3
3445-11
2.2
56%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
8Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje3647
36%
1.3
3946-7
2.4
53%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.3
-
9IgaloIgalo3834
21%
0.9
2259-37
2.1
63%
34%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
10Internacional PodgoricaInternacional Podgorica3623
14%
0.6
3176-45
3.0
86%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
11ZetaZeta22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
12BrskovoBrskovo20
0%
0.0
17-6
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.5
-
Montenegro: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

← all matches