This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Cartagena
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.93
1.07
1.00
1.87
vs Stronger (17)
1.24
1.59
1.88
1.12
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.77
1.31
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lugo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.0%
@ 2.14-3.1%
Under 2.5
59.0%
@ 1.69+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.2%
No
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0 ✓
12.8%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.8%
Lugo goals ↓
FC Cartagena goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.5%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.6%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
8.9%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.8%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lugo goals (down), columns = FC Cartagena goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Valladolid
1.93
Almeria
1.93
Eibar
1.90
Las Palmas
1.67
Tenerife
1.64
Girona
1.62
Oviedo
1.62
Ponferradina
1.50
FC Cartagena
1.43
Zaragoza
1.33
Burgos
1.31
Leganes
1.29
Huesca
1.29
Ibiza
1.24
Mirandes
1.24
Lugo
1.19
Sporting Gijon
1.10
Malaga
1.07
Amorebieta
1.02
Real Sociedad II
0.95
Fuenlabrada
0.79
Alcorcon
0.69
Lugo is 0.24 points worse than FC Cartagena in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valladolid
1.69
Almeria
1.62
FC Cartagena
1.50
Eibar
1.45
Mirandes
1.38
Girona
1.36
Ponferradina
1.36
Las Palmas
1.36
Oviedo
1.36
Ibiza
1.26
Tenerife
1.26
Leganes
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Lugo
1.10
Amorebieta
1.05
Real Sociedad II
1.02
Sporting Gijon
1.02
Burgos
0.98
Fuenlabrada
0.93
Zaragoza
0.93
Alcorcon
0.88
Malaga
0.86
Lugo is 0.40 goals worse than FC Cartagena in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Almeria
0.83
Tenerife
0.88
Oviedo
0.98
Burgos
0.98
Girona
1.00
Valladolid
1.02
Huesca
1.05
Eibar
1.07
Zaragoza
1.10
Las Palmas
1.12
Sporting Gijon
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Lugo
1.24
Ponferradina
1.31
Malaga
1.36
FC Cartagena
1.36
Ibiza
1.40
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Mirandes
1.48
Amorebieta
1.50
Fuenlabrada
1.55
Alcorcon
1.69
Lugo is 0.12 goals better than FC Cartagena in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lugo
For 3.4 · Against 6.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Cartagena
For 4.1 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 18.4 · Total 32.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lugo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
10.0
8.5
4.9
4.8
5.0
27.5
26.9
28.0
vs Stronger (28)
8.8
9.6
8.1
5.0
5.4
4.7
27.6
27.2
27.9
vs Similar (22)
9.8
10.3
9.2
4.8
4.1
5.6
27.3
26.5
28.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
58%
46%
72%
62%
81%
84%
75%
92%
% under line
48%
42%
54%
28%
38%
19%
16%
25%
8%
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Cartagena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.2
8.2
5.4
5.5
5.2
29.4
30.6
28.2
vs Stronger (27)
8.6
9.4
7.7
5.7
6.2
5.1
30.6
32.7
28.4
vs Similar (23)
8.8
8.9
8.7
5.0
4.6
5.3
28.0
27.9
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
44%
32%
84%
84%
84%
88%
96%
80%
% under line
62%
56%
68%
16%
16%
16%
12%
4%
20%
This opponent (Lugo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fuenlabrada
9.8
Ibiza
9.7
Huesca
9.6
Amorebieta
9.6
Mirandes
9.6
Zaragoza
9.4
Eibar
9.4
Valladolid
9.3
Lugo
9.2
Burgos
9.1
Malaga
9.1
Ponferradina
9.0
Real Sociedad II
9.0
Sporting Gijon
8.9
Almeria
8.8
Tenerife
8.7
FC Cartagena
8.7
Oviedo
8.4
Alcorcon
8.2
Girona
8.1
Leganes
8.1
Las Palmas
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Girona
5.8
Fuenlabrada
5.8
Las Palmas
5.6
FC Cartagena
5.4
Almeria
5.3
Malaga
5.3
Tenerife
5.2
Zaragoza
5.2
Valladolid
5.1
Oviedo
5.1
Lugo
4.9
Sporting Gijon
4.8
Huesca
4.8
Ponferradina
4.8
Leganes
4.7
Alcorcon
4.6
Mirandes
4.5
Real Sociedad II
4.2
Burgos
4.1
Ibiza
4.1
Amorebieta
4.0
Eibar
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Las Palmas
31.3
Fuenlabrada
30.5
Leganes
30.1
FC Cartagena
29.4
Tenerife
28.5
Ibiza
28.3
Girona
28.0
Huesca
28.0
Malaga
27.8
Lugo
27.5
Alcorcon
27.3
Zaragoza
27.3
Oviedo
27.1
Valladolid
27.1
Almeria
26.0
Mirandes
25.7
Amorebieta
25.5
Ponferradina
25.3
Burgos
24.9
Sporting Gijon
24.3
Eibar
23.5
Real Sociedad II
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.5%
Under 9.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
73.8%
Under 3.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.6%
Under 21.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lugo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.71
0.36
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (17)
0.65
0.47
0.88
0.25
0.44
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.46
0.50
0.50
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Cartagena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.80
0.60
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
1.00
0.62
0.75
0.33
1.22
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.62
1.00
0.43
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lugo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lugo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lugo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.64
0.50
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
0.76
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.77
0.83
0.50
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Cartagena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.13
0.47
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
0.76
0.59
1.25
0.38
0.33
0.78
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.69
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lugo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lugo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lugo · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Ramos25%
Sebas Moyano12%
Alberto Rodríguez8%
Manu Barreiro6%
Javier Avilés6%
Xavi Torres6%
Josep Señé6%
Jaume Cuéllar5%
Juanpe4%
Ángel Baena3%
Miguel Loureiro2%
Marko Šćepović0%
El Hacen0%
Bruno Pirri0%
Óscar Whalley0%
Aleksandar Pantić0%
Álex Pérez0%
Andoni López0%
Neyder Lozano0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Jordi Calavera0%
Pablo Clavería0%
Marc Carbo0%
Jose Ricardo0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Idrissa Thiam0%
Dani Vidal0%
Cesar Rodriguez0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Gui0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Castrín0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neyder Lozano56%
Patrick Sequeira50%
Jose Ricardo40%
Bruno Pirri38%
Aleksandar Pantić30%
Juanpe26%
Miguel Loureiro25%
Cesar Rodriguez25%
Xavi Torres24%
Pablo Clavería24%
Gui23%
El Hacen19%
Josep Señé18%
Jaume Cuéllar16%
Jordi Calavera15%
Castrín14%
Alberto Rodríguez14%
Andoni López12%
Chris Ramos12%
Marc Carbo10%
Manu Barreiro9%
Javier Avilés6%
Ángel Baena3%
Óscar Whalley3%
Sebas Moyano2%
Marko Šćepović0%
Álex Pérez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Idrissa Thiam0%
Dani Vidal0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Idrissa Thiam17%
Jaume Cuéllar11%
Jose Ricardo10%
Juanpe9%
Gui8%
Manu Barreiro6%
Ángel Baena6%
Pablo Clavería3%
Miguel Loureiro2%
Marko Šćepović0%
El Hacen0%
Bruno Pirri0%
Óscar Whalley0%
Aleksandar Pantić0%
Álex Pérez0%
Andoni López0%
Neyder Lozano0%
Xavi Torres0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Jordi Calavera0%
Javier Avilés0%
Chris Ramos0%
Josep Señé0%
Sebas Moyano0%
Marc Carbo0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Alberto Rodríguez0%
Dani Vidal0%
Cesar Rodriguez0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Castrín0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Chris Ramos46%
Sebas Moyano15%
Javier Avilés12%
Juanpe9%
Manu Barreiro6%
Pablo Clavería3%
Ángel Baena3%
Marko Šćepović0%
El Hacen0%
Bruno Pirri0%
Óscar Whalley0%
Aleksandar Pantić0%
Álex Pérez0%
Andoni López0%
Neyder Lozano0%
Xavi Torres0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Miguel Loureiro0%
Jordi Calavera0%
Josep Señé0%
Marc Carbo0%
Jose Ricardo0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Alberto Rodríguez0%
Idrissa Thiam0%
Dani Vidal0%
Cesar Rodriguez0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Jaume Cuéllar0%
Gui0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Castrín0%
FC Cartagena · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Millán32%
Luis Muñoz18%
Daniel Luna18%
Nacho Martínez14%
Salim El Jebari12%
Gaston Valles11%
Pocho Román10%
Cedric Teguia9%
Andy Rodríguez8%
José Machín8%
Rafael Núñez7%
Jairo Izquierdo5%
Martín Aguirregabiria3%
Alfredo Ortuño3%
Sergio Guerrero3%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Nikola Šipčić0%
Julián Delmás0%
Dani Escriche0%
Kiko Olivas0%
Pedro Alcalá0%
Damián Musto0%
José Antonio Ríos0%
Hugo González0%
Toni Fuidias0%
Óscar Clemente0%
Jorge Moreno0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Carmelo Sánchez0%
Pablo Cuñat0%
Jesús Hernández0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jesús Hernández60%
Damián Musto50%
Nacho Martínez36%
Sergio Guerrero32%
José Machín31%
Martín Aguirregabiria28%
Andrija Vukčević26%
Dani Escriche22%
Jorge Moreno20%
Pocho Román19%
Pedro Alcalá19%
Luis Muñoz18%
Assane Ndiaye Dione12%
Salim El Jebari12%
Daniel Luna12%
Andy Rodríguez11%
Kiko Olivas10%
Nikola Šipčić9%
Jairo Izquierdo9%
Julián Delmás7%
Alfredo Ortuño5%
Pablo Cuñat5%
José Antonio Ríos5%
Cedric Teguia5%
Gaston Valles4%
Hugo González0%
Rafael Núñez0%
Toni Fuidias0%
Óscar Clemente0%
Álex Millán0%
Carmelo Sánchez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nacho Martínez21%
Jairo Izquierdo14%
Salim El Jebari12%
Luis Muñoz9%
Dani Escriche8%
Rafael Núñez7%
Daniel Luna6%
Óscar Clemente6%
José Antonio Ríos5%
Cedric Teguia5%
Martín Aguirregabiria3%
Andy Rodríguez3%
José Machín0%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Nikola Šipčić0%
Alfredo Ortuño0%
Julián Delmás0%
Kiko Olivas0%
Pedro Alcalá0%
Damián Musto0%
Hugo González0%
Toni Fuidias0%
Álex Millán0%
Jorge Moreno0%
Sergio Guerrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Carmelo Sánchez0%
Pablo Cuñat0%
Pocho Román0%
Gaston Valles0%
Jesús Hernández0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cedric Teguia14%
Gaston Valles11%
Álex Millán11%
Luis Muñoz9%
José Machín8%
Dani Escriche5%
Hugo González5%
Andy Rodríguez3%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Nikola Šipčić0%
Jairo Izquierdo0%
Alfredo Ortuño0%
Julián Delmás0%
Martín Aguirregabiria0%
Nacho Martínez0%
Kiko Olivas0%
Pedro Alcalá0%
Damián Musto0%
José Antonio Ríos0%
Rafael Núñez0%
Toni Fuidias0%
Óscar Clemente0%
Jorge Moreno0%
Sergio Guerrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Carmelo Sánchez0%
Pablo Cuñat0%
Daniel Luna0%
Salim El Jebari0%
Pocho Román0%
Jesús Hernández0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →