The Lynx are looking to bounce back from a dismal recent form, having suffered five consecutive defeats, including a 1-4 loss to Lincoln Red Imps FC. However, their home advantage and stronger form at home, averaging 2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, should give them an edge against Europa Point. The visitors, Europa Point, have also struggled, with three straight defeats, but have shown some resilience, scoring 0.91 goals on average while conceding 3.64 away from home against stronger opponents. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.7 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 9.4%. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 43%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 89%, BTTS Yes, with a probability of 71.4%, and Over 2.5 goals, with a probability of 71.1%. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Lynx, fell short as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent streak of draws. The model had given the home side a 43 % chance of triumph, but that call was wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result. All of the model’s suggested picks proved accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9 %, Under 7.5 at 96.6 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.6 %, Under 6.5 at 92.0 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 91.7 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.9 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 90.4 %. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and no other numbers were repeated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lynx win✗ Miss
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Europa Point win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lynx
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.77
1.14
2.29
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
2.75
0.40
4.40
1.43
1.57
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.55
1.40
1.80
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.43
1.75
0.25
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa Point
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.97
1.07
2.67
1.47
3.27
vs Stronger (19)
0.95
3.53
1.00
3.33
0.90
3.70
vs Similar (9)
1.44
2.11
1.40
1.40
1.50
3.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.0%
Under 1.5
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.1%
Under 2.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.1%
Under 3.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.4%
No
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.4%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.3%
2-2 ✓
7.2%
3-1
5.5%
2-0
4.9%
3-2
4.7%
1-3
4.2%
Lynx goals ↓
Europa Point goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
3.5%
3.7%
2.1%
0.9%
1
4.1%
9.4%
7.3%
4.2%
1.8%
2
4.9%
8.3%
7.2%
4.1%
1.8%
3
3.2%
5.5%
4.7%
2.7%
1.2%
4
1.6%
2.7%
2.3%
1.3%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lynx goals (down), columns = Europa Point goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lynx is 0.26 points better than Europa Point in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lynx is 0.00 goals worse than Europa Point in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Lynx is 1.11 goals better than Europa Point in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.77).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lynx or Draw✓ Hit
66.5%
Avg Implied -
43%
23%
33%
covers Lynx + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lynx or Europa Point✗ Miss
76.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
23%
33%
covers Lynx + Europa Point
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Europa Point✓ Hit
56.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
23%
33%
covers Draw + Europa Point
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lynx over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.9%
Under
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.4%
Under
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lynx, so a minus line means Lynx give that many goals of a start and Europa Point receive them. At -1, Lynx must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lynx win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lynx)Actual: Europa Point
Lynx -2
11.4%
Draw -2
13.2%
Europa Point +2
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lynx)Actual: Europa Point
Lynx -1
24.6%
Draw -1
18.7%
Europa Point +1
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lynx)Actual: Lynx
Lynx +1
66.5%
Draw +1
16.3%
Europa Point -1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lynx)Actual: Lynx
Lynx +2
82.8%
Draw +2
10.1%
Europa Point -2
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lynx
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.46
0.85
0.94
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.83
0.25
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.09
0.60
1.40
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa Point
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.93
0.50
1.38
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
1.32
0.62
1.12
0.36
1.45
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.5%
Under 0.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.6%
Under 1.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
Under 2.5
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lynx over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lynx
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.77
1.08
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.58
0.25
2.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.45
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.29
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Europa Point) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Europa Point
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.77
0.64
1.71
0.88
1.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
2.16
0.50
2.25
0.45
2.09
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.11
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.6%
Under 0.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.9%
Under 1.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
26.5%
Under 2.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lynx over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Europa Point over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Lynx and Europa Point have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Lynx and Europa Point have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Lynx and Europa Point have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Lynx and Europa Point have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →