Lynx enter the match after a 0-2 loss to Magpies, their last five showing a streak of defeats, while Lincoln Red Imps FC come off a 2-0 victory over Larne, their recent form a mix of wins and losses. The model rates the away side as the clear favourite, assigning a 79% chance of victory, 14% for a draw and 7% for a home win. The most likely result is an away win, reflected in the single most probable scoreline of 0-2, which carries a 10.9% probability. The expected total goals is 3.6, with the most common total of three goals occurring 21% of the time.
Lynx average 0.5 goals scored and concede 3.75 at home against stronger opponents, whereas Lincoln average 2.29 goals scored and 0.57 conceded on the road against weaker teams. The model’s selections include a 99.2% chance of Home under 3.5 goals, 97.9% for Away +2 handicap, 97.0% for Under 7.5, 95.6% for Home under 2.5 goals, 94.0% for Away over 0.5 goals, 93.1% for Draw or Away, 93.1% for Away +1 handicap and 92.7% for Under 6.5.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lynx win
8.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
15.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC win
76.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lynx
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.67
1.29
1.93
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
2.36
0.50
3.75
1.43
1.57
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.75
1.50
1.83
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.43
1.75
0.25
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.87
2.31
0.81
2.14
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.20
1.25
1.12
2.14
1.29
vs Weaker (14)
2.93
0.50
3.71
0.43
2.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.3%
Under 1.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.6%
Under 2.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.8%
Under 3.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.4%
0-3
10.0%
1-2
8.9%
0-1
7.9%
1-3
7.9%
1-1
7.4%
0-4
6.6%
1-4
5.2%
Lynx goals ↓
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
7.9%
11%
10%
6.6%
1
1.9%
7.4%
8.9%
7.9%
5.2%
2
1.0%
2.6%
3.5%
3.1%
2.0%
3
0.3%
0.7%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lynx goals (down), columns = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Lynx is 1.41 points worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Lynx is 1.89 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 3.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Lynx is 1.04 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lynx or Draw
23.7%
Avg Implied -
8%
16%
76%
covers Lynx + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lynx or Lincoln Red Imps FC
84.3%
Avg Implied -
8%
16%
76%
covers Lynx + Lincoln Red Imps FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lincoln Red Imps FC
92.0%
Avg Implied -
8%
16%
76%
covers Draw + Lincoln Red Imps FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lynx over/under 0.5
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5
Over
92.9%
Under
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 3.5
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lynx, so a minus line means Lynx give that many goals of a start and Lincoln Red Imps FC receive them. At -1, Lynx must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lynx win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lynx)
Lynx -2
0.5%
Draw -2
1.9%
Lincoln Red Imps FC +2
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lynx)
Lynx -1
2.4%
Draw -1
5.6%
Lincoln Red Imps FC +1
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lynx)
Lynx +1
23.7%
Draw +1
20.4%
Lincoln Red Imps FC -1
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lynx)
Lynx +2
44.1%
Draw +2
21.5%
Lincoln Red Imps FC -2
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lynx
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.50
0.79
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.91
0.25
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.08
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.06
0.50
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.47
0.50
0.62
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.36
1.86
0.29
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lynx over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lynx
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.79
1.14
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.45
0.25
2.75
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.67
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.29
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.25
0.31
1.43
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.73
0.75
0.50
1.86
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.14
1.86
0.14
1.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Lynx) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lynx over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lynx over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lincoln Red Imps FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kike Gómez33%
Christian Rutjens25%
Nicholas Pozo20%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayman El Ghobashy67%
Mandi60%
Graeme Torrilla50%
Jaylan Hankins40%
Joe33%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo33%
Tjay De Barr17%
Kike Gómez17%
Toni Kolega0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe33%
Toni Kolega17%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Juanje Argüez17%
Mandi0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Toni0%
Kike Gómez0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nano20%
Kike Gómez17%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Tjay De Barr0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Lynx's squad is €1m less valuable than Lincoln Red Imps FC's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Lynx and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Lynx and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Lynx and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
College 1975
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe